3 NFL Storylines to Watch in Week 16
Atlanta Won't Stop Alvin Kamara This Time
The game to circle on the Week 16 schedule is easily the Atlanta Falcons at the New Orleans Saints. This contest is critical to help settle the NFC South, which has a third contender in the Carolina Panthers. The game carries -- by far -- the highest under/over on the entire slate, and it's a rematch of Atlanta's 20-17 victory from Week 14. The winner clinches at least a Wild Card playoff berth, while New Orleans would also take the division with a victory coupled with an unlikely Carolina loss at home to Tampa Bay.
It's hard to imagine, but Drew Brees has only exceeded 300 passing yards three times this season. Last year it was a plateau he hit 10 times. Brees will face the Falcons for the 25th time in his career; a team he's averaging nearly 310 passing yards per game against.
While the eye-popping performances haven't been there for Brees, he's second in pass completions, fourth in passing yards, seventh in pass attempts, and is destroying the field in completion percentage.
So the dip in Brees' performance is clearly not because he's about to turn 39 years old. Rather, he's been handing the ball off to a pair of running backs that are inside the top 10 of Net Expected Points (or NEP, our algorithm that shows how many points a player adds or loses for his team versus expectation) per rush among running backs that have registered at least 95 carries.
In fact, rookie Alvin Kamara is currently credited with an overall NEP of 82.77. That's the highest mark since Le'Veon Bell posted 85.87 in 2014.
While Atlanta has only allowed one 80-yard rusher all season, they've also allowed more receptions to the running back position than any other team. And that's where Kamara -- who's third in running back targets -- is doing plenty of damage, registering the third-most NEP for backs in the receiving game.
According to Sharp Football Stats, the Falcons run defense ranks 30th in rushing success rate. And numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics sees it similar, also placing Atlanta in the bottom-10 of rushing defense.
