5 Wide Receivers Who Drastically Outperformed Their Teammates in 2017
Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles
You could say that Nelson Agholor had himself a decent year. Not only did he expel the demons from his first two seasons, but he went out and won himself a Super Bowl. Not too shabby at all.
On top of that, Agholor's advanced metrics this year were truly solid, even when compared to a talented teammate like Alshon Jeffery. Here are their numbers along with those of Torrey Smith.
| In 2017 | Targets | Target NEP | Target NEP per Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 120 | 31.42 | 0.26 |
| Nelson Agholor | 95 | 47.46 | 0.50 |
| Torrey Smith | 68 | 8.08 | 0.12 |
Jeffery's no scrub, and that showed during the team's playoff run. Agholor just made a more positive impact on the offense.
It is worth noting that comparing Agholor and Jeffery is a bit more apples-to-oranges than with some other teammates because of their respective roles. For Jeffery, 35.8% of his targets were at least 16 yards downfield as opposed to 24.2% for Agholor. Completion percentages are going to be lower in those scenarios, which is going to influence some of Jeffery's metrics.
But remember, we're not looking at completion percentages here. We're looking at expected points added. The average Target NEP on a deep target is 0.42 compared to 0.14 for a pass shorter than 16 yards. In other words, Jeffery's target distribution profile should make him look better than Agholor rather than worse. That just wasn't the case.
Because Jeffery just signed an extension and Zach Ertz will still be in town a while, Agholor's target market share ceiling is definitely restricted. We need to account for that when judging his value for 2018.
At the same time, he's an efficient receiver in an offense set up for long-term success. He's also entering just his age-25 season. There's plenty of value in that, making Agholor an intriguing asset going forward.
