The NFL's 10 Best Deep-Ball Wide Receivers in 2017
6. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
Deep Targets: 35 | Target NEP per Target: 0.95 | Success Rate: 48.57%
On the full season, Russell Wilson was in the middle of the pack in deep-ball efficiency, ranking 13th in Passing NEP per attempt on those longer passes. It's not terrible, but it's not great. We can't blame Doug Baldwin for that mediocrity.
Just to illustrate that point, here's a breakdown of the four Seattle Seahawks pass catchers who had at least 15 deep targets last year. For the most part, all is bright and cheery. Then you get to Jimmy Graham's numbers.
| Wilson Deep Throws | Targets | Touchdowns | Interceptions | Target NEP per Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 35 | 6 | 2 | 0.95 |
| Paul Richardson | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0.57 |
| Tyler Lockett | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 |
| Jimmy Graham | 17 | 0 | 4 | -0.76 |
Of Wilson's 17 deep passes to Graham, Graham caught as many (four) as the opposing team did. That's not generally the type of ratio you want.
Baldwin, though, was a different story. Yes, there were two picks his way, but they lost a grand total of 3.30 expected points. Basically, they were arm punts. Outside of that, he was making plays.
The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator for 2018 in Brain Schottenheimer, and Graham is reportedly likely to leave in free agency. There are changes on the way in Seattle, which could be a positive for Wilson and Baldwin. Based on what they were able to do last year, it would seem that prioritizing getting Baldwin more looks down the field could be a fruitful strategy.
