Fantasy Football: The Top 5 Rookie Wide Receivers for 2018
1. D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 10.12 (WR47)
Projected Fantasy Points: 75.48 (WR58)
Here at numberFire, we love us some D.J. Moore.
It all started in February, when Brandon Gdula, in his study to determine which receivers dominated the most college games, found that Moore was far and away the most dominant of his class. A week later, JJ Zachariason conducted his own study on the statistical profile of stud receivers, coming to the same conclusion: Moore is the only member of the 2018 class who fits the mold. So it made sense -- at least to us -- when Moore was taken with the 24th overall pick, to think that Moore has a chance to be a stud wideout for the Carolina Panthers.
The hype is warranted. While PlayerProfile.com lists Moore's closest comparison as Pierre Garcon, it also has the 21-year-old ranked in the 92nd percentile or better in breakout age (98th percentile), college dominator percentage (97th) and SPARQ-x rating (92nd). At 6'0" and 210 pounds, his burst score is in the 94th percentile, in large part due to an explosive 4.42 40-yard dash.
As both Gdula and Zachariason touched on, though, the appeal here goes beyond measurables. Moore wasn't given much opportunity until his third year at Maryland, when he converted 80 catches into 1,033 yards and 8 touchdowns. For a middle-of-the-road offense, his 1,000-plus yards and 8 scores through the air (he added 61 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground) accounted for more than 53.2% of his team's passing yards and 60.0% of its passing touchdowns. And that's despite catching passes from five different quarterbacks.
In Carolina, the circumstances couldn't be much better for Moore. Without a ton of talent and proven production in the receiving corps, Moore is all but locked in opposite Devin Funchess on the outside. Before even playing a professional snap, Moore is causing people close to the team to say that he is "more than ready to contribute" and has "looked the part" throughout the offseason.
As the chatter has proceeded to back up the pre-draft buildup, Moore's ADP has climbed exactly three rounds from the date of the draft and half a round over the last month alone. He's up to pick 10.01 (WR44) in 12-team PPR redraft leagues, and he's 8.08 (WR38) in dynasty startups as well as 1.06 (WR1) in rookie-only drafts.
In 2018, our models project Moore to generate 44 catches, 557 yards and 3.3 touchdowns on 73 targets. Last year, those numbers would've been good for WR55, which gives Moore the floor of a flex option with the potential to finish as a WR3 in standard leagues.
