Dynasty Fantasy Football: 8 Players to Buy Before Week 1
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 90th overall (RB35)
You're forgiven for thinking numberFire is actually just an Aaron Jones fan site, but there's so much to like here.
Let's start at the beginning.
Jones' college market share numbers were pretty darn great, and then his landing spot with the Packers was the stuff dreams are made of. As a rookie in 2017, all Jones did was ball out when he got the chance, outperforming his backfield mates by a wide margin, per our metrics.
For those of you who are new to numberFire, Net Expected Points (NEP) is the metric we use to track the efficiency of teams and players. As opposed to a yards-per-attempt metric, NEP shows us the expected points added on each play, allowing us to see the massive difference between a four-yard run on 3rd and 2 and that same rush on 3rd and 8. We can also look at each player's Success Rate, which shows the percentage of carries that increase the team's expected points for the drive.
By our numbers, Jones was clearly Green Bay's best runner in 2017.
| In 2017 | Rushes | Rushing NEP Per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 153 | 0.05 | 42.48% |
| Aaron Jones | 80 | 0.19 | 50.00% |
| Ty Montgomery | 71 | 0.00 | 50.70% |
The league average for Rushing NEP per carry last season was -0.05, and the average Success Rate was 38.08% for running backs. So all of three of these guys were really good.
Jones, though, was on a different level.
And it's critical to note that most of Jones' carries came when he was the lead back as he tallied 62 of his 80 attempts from Week 4 to Week 7. It's not a situation where Jones played sparingly and lit up tired defenses as a fresh-legged sub -- a la Mike Gillislee on the 2016 Bills (Gillislee was historically great that year). During said four-game span, Jones proved he could deliver the goods when seeing big volume.
Heading into 2018, the Packers' backfield is a mess for fantasy purposes. Jones is suspended for the first two games, giving Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery a chance to make early claims for season-long roles. And when Jones gets back, these three could combine for a fantasy-killing timeshare.
But if Jones gets a chance to be the guy -- he fared well as a pass catcher in college, by the way -- he could be a league-winning player on what should be one of the league's premier offenses.
