Week 1 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Over/Under: 40.50
Ravens Implied Team Total: 23.75
Bills Implied Team Total: 16.75
Without a ton of other high-profile matchups on the slate, it's important to acknowledge a one-sided affair and how it will lead to some "chalky" plays. If you're new to DFS, the "chalk" plays are those that are universally accepted as reasonably-priced options in ideal matchups. As such, they will have very high ownership. While it can be advantageous to go against the chalk in GPPs to differentiate your lineup, it's often a fine play to go chalk in cash and take the secure points where you can get them. As you can see above, the Ravens are favored by seven points at home, setting up an ideal game script for several fantasy options in Baltimore.
Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel Price: $6,700
We know that volume is king in fantasy football. And after the Week 10 bye last year, the Ravens finally committed to Alex Collins as the team's workhorse. He averaged over 19 touches per game over the last 7 weeks of 2017, helping lead the team to a 5-2 record and a near playoff berth. Danny Woodhead retired, and the Ravens did nothing to address the running back position in the offseason, suggesting the team is comfortable with Collins as its lead back. While Kenneth Dixon is back in the fold, he missed all of 2017 with a knee injury (and PED suspension) and has been dinged up throughout training camp. Everything we've seen through the preseason has indicated Collins is Baltimore's lead back.
The volume should be there. And when volume gets married to efficiency, the result is fantasy points galore. And boy was Collins efficient last year, as he ranked seventh in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) and sixth in Rushing Success Rate (the percentage of rushes that produced positive NEP) among qualified backs. While significant, it's even more impressive he managed those elite numbers without the services of All-Pro right guard Marshal Yanda and solid left guard Alex Lewis. Collins gets both interior maulers back and, as such, numberFire's Jim Sannes has the Ravens pegged for the 12th-best offensive line in football this year. With a full offseason in this offensive system, it's possible that Collins is able to improve upon last year's impressive efficiency while maintaining bellcow volume.
So Collins already has volume and efficiency working in his favor. And now he gets to face the Buffalo Bills at home. No team gave up more fantasy points per game to running backs last year, with the Bills allowing almost two full more points than the next-worst team. Collins, meanwhile, excelled when the Ravens were favorites last year:
The Bills led the league in percentage of touchdowns coming from rushing scores in 2017, per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld. Staring at workhorse volume as a seven-point home favorite in an ideal matchup, Collins is as chalky as it gets. But that doesn't mean you have to shy away from him, especially in cash.
Baltimore Ravens D/ST
FanDuel Price: $4,800
Yes, the Ravens are the most expensive defense on the slate; they're also the chalkiest. Not only are they at home as seven-point favorites, a typical recipe for a defense unit's fantasy success, but they'll be facing second-year quarterback Nathan Peterman, a relatively unproven signal caller, who threw five interceptions in one half in his only career road start. Buffalo lost left tackle Cordy Glenn, left guard Richie Incognito and center Eric Wood in the offseason -- arguably its three best offensive linemen -- and replaced them with relative no-names. The Bills have far and away the lowest implied point total on the slate. There's really not much else to say here.
Others to Consider
With such a low over/under, there isn't a ton of gold left to mine from this game. Since the Ravens receiving corps is unrecognizable from last year, it would be prudent to wait and see how the target and snap distribution plays out in Week 1. The Bills have their warts, but pass defense isn't one of them; Buffalo ranked top-10 in fantasy points allowed to both receivers and quarterbacks last year. No team allowed fewer passes of 40-plus yards in 2017, which doesn't exactly bode well for deep threat John Brown ($5,500). Joe Flacco ($6,100) is dirt cheap and averages almost four more points per game as a home favorite since 2010, but the Bills were a stay-away quarterback matchup for all of 2017, so he's not worth the risk with such a low ceiling.
The Bills don't project for much fantasy goodness this season, let alone as a road underdog with one of the lowest implied team totals in recent memory. That said, there is still room to be contrarian for the most desperate. LeSean McCoy ($7,300) is as locked-in to workhorse volume as any running back, but he averages 1.1 fewer points per game as a road underdog since joining the Bills. With that newly-built offensive line expected to be one of the NFL's worst, it just feels like there's too much risk involved at his price.
The Ravens allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers last year, so you're on your own with Kelvin Benjamin ($5,800). If there is one Bills player truly worthy of consideration, it's probably the reliable-but-never-sexy Charles Clay ($5,200). Clay has never managed more than four touchdowns in any season as a member of the Bills, so the lack of upside isn't very DFS-friendly. But he maintained a monstrous 23.48% target market share in the offense last year, an elite number for a tight end. That volume is useful, and the Ravens did allow the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends last year, but ultimately the Bills are a team to avoid while you attack the running and defensive matchups for the Ravens.
