5 NFL Red Zone Trends to Monitor for Week 9

Changes in the Houston Offense

We've had a wild week of trades this week, which is typically out of character for the NFL.

One of the headliners was Demaryius Thomas landing in Houston as a stop-gap measure to fill in for Will Fuller, whose season has been cut short by a torn ACL.

This opens up some significant red zone volume in Denver, as Thomas accounted for 20.5% of the team's red zone targets this season, but the situation in Houston is a very interesting one.

The Texans' 55 red zone passing plays are the fourth-most in the NFL this season, but Deshaun Watson has still averaged fewer than 2 passing touchdowns per game.

The Fuller injury doesn't actually project to change a whole lot. He had only 5 of the team's red zone targets this season, accounting for a lowly 11.4%. Watson has really keyed in on DeAndre Hopkins (14 targets, 31.8% market share) and to a lesser extent Ryan Griffin (9, 20.5%) in scoring range this season.

That means that we have two possible types of outcome with Thomas' arrival. Either he is limited to a Fuller-sized role in the red zone, which would severely limit his touchdown upside, or he cuts into the work that has been going elsewhere.

Among the 96 players with at least 20 red zone targets since 2016, Thomas' 23.9% red zone touchdown rate ranks only 50th, and that ranking is a less impressive 13th out of 18 if we raise the target cut-off to 40-plus. He's certainly not a lock to see significant work in scoring range.

If he does, look for his work to take away from Griffin, not Hopkins, though. Hopkins has a league-high 30% target market share overall this season, so his hefty red zone market share is consistent with what we would expect from him.