5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10
Tennessee Titans' Passing Offense
The Titans have been an impossible team to peg this year, largely due to the fluctuating health of Mariota. But if their past two games are any indication, the arrow is pointing up there, allowing us to consider them against this Patriots defense.
If you watched Monday Night Football, you likely came away impressed with Mariota's play. His quarterback rating there was 119.9, easily the highest it has been all year, and he pumped out 22.8 FanDuel points. The turnaround, though, may have actually started the week before the Titans' bye.
In that one, they were facing the Chargers, who have done well whenever not facing the Rams or Chiefs this year. Mariota almost led the Titans to victory there and seemed to throw the ball well.
The table below shows Mariota's efficiency metrics from this season leading into that game and what he has done since. "Passing NEP/P" is short for "Passing NEP per drop back," which deducts for expected points lost due to sacks, incompletions, and interceptions.
| Mariota in 2018 | Yards Per Attempt | TDs | INTs | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 6 Games | 6.72 | 2 | 4 | -0.12 | 42.22% |
| Past 2 Games | 7.82 | 3 | 1 | 0.31 | 55.22% |
For some context, -0.12 Passing NEP per drop back would rank Mariota 33rd out of 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs if it were his full-season number. A mark of 0.31 would put him seventh, and his Success Rate would rank third. It has been a pretty dramatic turnaround, and it makes sense anecdotally as he regains strength in his elbow.
Now Mariota's putting all of that up against the Patriots' pass defense. They're ranked 16th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics, but they have really struggled to stop mobile quarterbacks.
On the season, the Patriots have allowed 330 or more passing yards to four different passers. Those guys are Blake Bortles, Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, and Mitchell Trubisky. Luck hasn't run as much post-surgery, and Mahomes is a cyborg. But both Bortles and Trubisky are generally limited passers who had success against the Patriots both with their arms and their legs, going for 33.54 and 33.42 FanDuel points, respectively.
Mariota's just $6,700 on FanDuel, cheaper than Bortles, Sam Darnold, and Jameis Winston. He's $900 cheaper than Alex Smith, who hasn't scored more than 20 FanDuel points all season long. Mariota has added to his floor by rushing 17 times over the past two games, so he's in play for both cash games and tournaments.
It's worth noting, though, that this comes with a caveat. Tajae Sharpe missed practice Thursday after suiting up Wednesday, and both Taywan Taylor and right tackle Jack Conklin have missed both practices. If all three wind up sitting, it would constitute a downgrade for Mariota. Conklin's backup, Dennis Kelly, has been serviceable this year, and Taylor's snaps have never been overly robust, so Mariota could get by without those two. But if Sharpe also misses, it's likely time to proceed with a bit of caution.
When you're looking to stack Mariota here, two names stand out in Dion Lewis and Corey Davis.
With Lewis, it's partly because of his passing-down work as he has 16.5% of the team's targets this year, allowing you to get some double-dip action. But he's also just far too cheap.
Lewis is $5,800. For that, you're getting a guy who played 84.3% of the team's snaps last week and has averaged 16 carries and 5 targets per game over the past two. He's lightyears ahead of Derrick Henry on the depth chart now, and that makes him a highly-desirable asset even if Henry is still a threat to pluck a touchdown.
With Davis, part of the allure is also his price at $5,800. But he's just a target monster in this offense.
For the full season, Davis has 29.5% of the team's overall targets, 47.1% of the deep targets, and 35.5% of the red-zone targets. We just haven't noticed because the passing offense has sputtered so much. He showed his ceiling in Week 4 by netting 9 receptions for 161 yards and a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles, and not many guys in this pricing range can do that.
Bill Belichick does have a reputation for shutting down the opposing team's top option, which could result in extra coverage going Davis' way. That's another reason to consider Lewis. But with how low Davis' salary is, he's absolutely worth that risk in tournaments.
