5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17
Kansas City Chiefs' Passing Offense
Normally, the Chiefs are either playing in primetime or too expensive for us to afford, so we don't get to spill fake ink on them here often.
But they need a win in Week 17. If they lose, they open the door for the Los Angeles Chargers to snag the AFC West, relegating the Chiefs to a wild card spot. Going from home-field to a road game in the first round of the playoffs is about as drastic as it gets. The Chiefs are going to go all out this week.
The Oakland Raiders are the poor fellows who will feel their wrath.
This sets up perfectly for the Chiefs as the Raiders' defense has been gashed by even pedestrian offenses all year long. They're 31st in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, which takes into account the schedule they've faced. The Chiefs are first on the offensive side of this metric. It's about as easy as it gets.
In the first 15 games of the season, the Raiders have allowed 12 different quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns in a game against them. That list includes Ryan Tannehill, Nick Mullens, Josh Rosen, and Case Keenum. None of those guys are in the same stratosphere as Mahomes.
Mahomes exhibited that when these two teams met back in Week 13 as he gashed them for 295 yards and 4 touchdowns. The yardage wasn't overwhelming, but four touchdowns will get you to heaven in a hurry.
The big concern with Mahomes isn't about his abilities or about his matchup. Instead, it likely revolves around whether the Chiefs will win too easily, allowing them to just drain clock in the second half. That's enough to justify using Damien Williams with his fresh contract extension, but should it also push us off of Mahomes?
Thankfully, because Mahomes and company have been so freaking good, we actually have a sample on this. They've won five games by more than 10 points. Here are Mahomes' splits in those five games versus the other 10.
| Mahomes in 2018 | Attempts Per Game | Yards Per Game | FanDuel PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| In Wins of 10-Plus Points | 35.0 | 321.8 | 24.95 |
| All Other Games | 38.1 | 320.7 | 28.60 |
Mahomes' production does go down with fewer pass attempts and fewer FanDuel points per game. Given that Mahomes' $9,500 salary on FanDuel factors in what he has done in closer games, that would seemingly make him a poor investment this week. But a closer look shows that's not the case.
In the five big victories, Mahomes has thrown for at least 313 yards in all but one game, and he had three passing touchdowns in three of those games. That allowed him to still score 33.82 FanDuel points in one contest and 27.80 in another. The ceiling is still there.
The floor was there, too, with Mahomes scoring at least 17.82 points in each wide victory. If the team gets out in front enough to shut things down, Mahomes likely played a big role in getting them there.
With so many teams resting skill players and other pieces, it's hard to trust quarterbacks in games where there's nothing on the line. For the Chiefs, this game is monumental. They're not putting Mahomes on ice until they're well out in front, meaning we likely shouldn't worry about the spread and plug him in for tournament rosters.
Even in the lineups where we don't use Mahomes, we should be trying to get some exposure to the offense via either the aforementioned Williams or the pass-catchers in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
With Sammy Watkins initially going down to injury prior to Week 10, the target tree for the Chiefs has been narrowed to largely just those two players. Here's how the targets have been divided since Watkins got hurt, with a "deep" target being any target at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
| Week 10 On | FanDuel Salary | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | $7,800 | 26.2% | 45.5% | 17.5% |
| Travis Kelce | $7,700 | 27.1% | 25.5% | 27.5% |
In this span, no other player has more than 13% of the team's targets. And with how much juice is in each target when Mahomes is throwing, this usage is hugely valuable.
The problem is that we haven't seen much of this recently. Kelce has one touchdown in his past three games, and Hill has finished with fewer than 50 receiving yards twice in the past four games. Their salaries are nothing to sneeze at, so should we be looking to avoid them here?
It's pretty clear the answer there is "no." In that span, the Chiefs faced three teams ranked 1st, 7th, and 16th, respectively against the pass. The Raiders ain't that. It's a whole new ballgame this week.
Because of the position he plays, Kelce's going to be the player here with the most appeal. He basically gets you access to a fourth wide receiver with his usage, and he allows you to not dumpster dive with any of the other jokers at tight end. Kelce has 95 or more receiving yards in 4 of 5 games the Chiefs have won by more than 10 points, so you need this guy in your life on Sunday.
From a game-theory perspective, though, it'll be hard to lay off of Hill. His $7,800 salary is right between JuJu Smith-Schuster and Keenan Allen, both of whom figure to be popular this week. That's going to at least put some sort of cap on Hill's ownership. Additionally, he was held to just 13 receiving yards the first time these two teams faced, which may further funnel ownership elsewhere.
That doesn't mean Hill's ceiling is gone. He has 117 or more receiving yards in 3 of his past 6 games, and he has shredded poor pass defenses all season long. If you want to get exposure to the Chiefs without swallowing chalk on Kelce, Hill seems to be the best route for doing so.
