5 Running Backs Who Drastically Outperformed Their Teammates in 2018
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
When Derrick Henry was on the field, you knew exactly what the Tennessee Titans were going to do: they were going to try to shove it down your throat. That didn't stop Henry from posting some impressive numbers this year.
Among 47 running backs with at least 100 carries, Henry finished the year 9th in Rushing NEP per carry and 14th in Rushing Success Rate. His teammate, Dion Lewis, did not.
| In 2018 | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 215 | 0.12 | 44.7% |
| Dion Lewis | 154 | -0.18 | 30.5% |
Lewis was second-to-last and dead last, respectively. Sub-optimal.
This is even while Henry ran into eight-man boxes on 32.1% of his carries and Lewis did so 25.8% of the time, according to NFL's Next-Gen Stats. The defense knew what was coming, but it didn't matter.
The concern with shoveling more snaps Henry's direction is that it could take away from the team's passing abilities, given that Lewis is perceived to be the bigger plus in that department.
That's not how things actually transpired, though. Instead, the Titans averaged 9.11 yards per pass attempt with Henry on the field, according to The Quant Edge's injury tool, compared to 7.12 with him off. If you want to help Marcus Mariota in the final year of his rookie deal, it seems like the key is keeping Henry on the field more often.
The Titans seemed willing to hand the reins over to Henry down the stretch last year, and it allowed him to bust off some huge games from a fantasy perspective. We saw the same in 2017 when DeMarco Murray got hurt. If Henry's snap rate does increase in 2019, his potential for fantasy does seem pretty tasty, and we could be trending toward exactly that.
Titans OC: Derrick Henry will be big part of offensehttps://t.co/IjHU8EGzPo pic.twitter.com/2xIKUrWthL
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) February 6, 2019
Our willingness to buy Henry this offseason should depend fully on where his price settles out. If his re-draft cost reflects the possibility that the Titans' offense could continue to struggle, then we'll want to grab shares aggressively. The Titans had a boatload of injuries to their offensive tackles this past year and should take a step forward in 2019.
If Henry's price starts to creep up (which seems likely given the recent buzz), we'll want to take a bit of a more cautious approach. But even then, people may not quite realize how good this guy was when he got opportunities this past season, which gives him a respectable ceiling should the Titans fully commit to him as their lead back.
