6 Bold Predictions About the 2014 Fantasy Football Season

1. Rob Gronkowski Will Outscore Jimmy Graham

By Sam Hauss

Last season, Jimmy Graham posted one of the greatest seasons ever for a tight end. Graham had 86 catches for 1,215 receiving yards, 16 receiving touchdowns and a whopping 119.71 Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) - the second-highest total at the position since 2000. Which tight end had the highest Reception NEP total ever, you ask?

Well, I'm glad you asked.

In 2011, Patriots' second year star tight end Rob Gronkowski posted what was arguably the greatest season in history at the position. Gronk smashed his way to 90 receptions, 1,327 yards and 18 touchdowns (17 receiving and 1 rushing), amassing an outrageous 131.91 Reception NEP in the process.

The argument for drafting Graham as the first tight end off the board can be summed up in one word - consistency. The Saints' superstar has put up a 90-plus Reception NEP each of the past three seasons. To put that in perspective, only eight tight ends have put up a Reception NEP score of at least 90 since 2000, and only three players - Graham, Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez - accomplished that feat multiple times.

As good as Graham has been over the past three seasons though, Gronk has been better than him on a per target basis each of the past three seasons. The Patriots' star posted a 1.06 per target Reception NEP to Graham's 0.73 in 2011, a 0.96 to his 0.67 in 2012, and a 0.87 to his 0.84 in 2013.

When Gronk has played, he's been better than Graham, but his ADP is almost two full rounds later than Graham's due to injury concerns. With the Patriots' star fully expected to be ready to suit up for Week 1, reclaiming his spot as the best fantasy tight end in the league is very much within reach.