5 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions About the Second Half of the NFL Season
Julio Jones Will Be the Second Half's Best Wide Receiver
You know what hasn't been fun for fantasy owners over the last five weeks? Owning Julio Jones.
In PPR leagues, Jones has finished 27th, 9th, 40th, 38th and 43rd at the receiver position over this stretch, hauling in a grand total of zero touchdowns. None. That Thursday night game against Tampa Bay seems like it happened three years ago, doesn't it?
Be prepared for a bounce-back though, Julio owners. After the team's bye this week, they'll face five teams that rank 24th or worse against the pass, per our Net Expected Points metrics, and the other three contests are against secondaries that rank in the bottom half of the league.
A key reason for Jones' poor showing of late has to do with matchups. The Falcons faced three top-10 secondaries over their last five, with a fourth contest against a team that, at the time, was a top-half unit (Chicago). The only game against a below-average pass defense was in Week 5 against the Giants, where Jones was a top-10 wide receiver in fantasy.
Generally speaking, Jones' volume is still there. Last week's contest had an odd game script, and the Falcons had suspect play-calling after gaining a 21-0 lead over the Lions - that could be a key reason for Jones' low target total (6). But even with that factored in, Julio is averaging 10 targets per game during this drought.
Given his talent, the volume of targets going his way and the cake schedule the Falcons will face, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see Julio Jones as the top wide receiver after the Falcons' bye.
