6 Bold Predictions About the 2015 Fantasy Football Season
Jeremy Hill Will Be a Top-5 Running Back
In an offense built to run the ball -- the Bengals rushed 47.6% of the time last year, fifth most in the league -- sophomore running back Jeremy Hill figures to be an integral part of this offense.
Over the last nine weeks of the season, Hill led the league in rushing yards, yards per carry, and had the fourth most rushing touchdowns. His 20.63 Rushing Net Expect Points (NEP) on the season was the fourth-highest in the league as Hill ran in a very efficient manner on his 222 carries.
Hill was also an efficient rusher in the red zone, converting 19.4% of his 36 attempts, crossing the pylons for 7 touchdowns as he outscored teammate Giovani Bernard's 12.9% clip -- Bernard's red zone carries dissipated towards the end of the season. An adept receiver -- Hill secured 27 of his 32 targets -- the former LSU Tiger is an all-around back capable of taking over and leading this offense in 2015.
After Bernard's injury led to Hill's breakout, Hill's snap count rose from 19.3 per game to 40.0 post-injury, as he took charge of the offense while subsequently providing significant fantasy value. In the last eight games of fantasy relevance, Hill finished as a top-12 running back four different times while narrowly missing (RB13) a fifth time. Despite the presence of Bernard, Hill showed he was able to succeed with both players running behind Pro Football Focus' sixth-best run blocking offensive line, a unit that could likely improve after depth upgrades in the draft.
The Bengals held a lead against their opponents 45.9% of the time according to The Fake Football's Rich Hribar -- fifth most in the league -- while missing several prominent players last year on offense. If the Bengals can continue their successful offensive ways, Hill could pile on additional yards late in fourth quarters as he finds himself the benefactor of volume, efficiency, and fantasy stardom in Hue Jackson's offense.
