A Running Back to Target in Each Round of Your Fantasy Football Draft
Round 8: Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins
ADP: 89th overall (8.03)
Just three running backs -- Jay Ajayi, T.J. Yeldon and Tevin Coleman -- are coming off the board in the eighth round. While Coleman has a lot of things going for him this year, Ajayi likely has a better shot at a solid workload.
Arian Foster has been all the rage lately. His ADP was 9.01 on July 19th, and it's jumped to 6.01 as of August 5th. That's a full three-round jump in roughly three weeks, fueled by a plethora of positive Foster news out of Miami's training camp.
Here's the thing about that -- Foster is old, and he's coming off a very serious injury. Entering his age-30 campaign fresh off an Achilles tear, history doesn't bode well for him.
On the other side of it is Ajayi and his tumbling value. An early fifth-round choice (5.02) on July 18th, Ajayi has moved three full rounds in the other direction, being taken with the third pick of Round 8.
Dealing with a bone bruise, Ajayi hasn't been able to get on the field until recently, giving Foster the chance to run with the first team. It's just the latest setback for Ajayi, who hasn't caught a ton of breaks lately.
The run of bad luck for the former Boise State star started when his knee raised concerns at the combine, crushing his draft stock. Without the knee issues, Ajayi would've likely been taken much higher, and his test numbers -- per MockDraftable.com -- back that up.
The athletic ability shows up on the field, too.
While Miami's coaching staff is talking up Foster right now, it's important to remember they were doing the exact same thing for Ajayi earlier this offseason, and coach Adam Gase recently referred to Ajayi as his starter.
Foster was an incredibly productive player at his peak -- and there's always a chance he'll buck the odds and get back to his dominant ways of old -- but he may be the most overvalued running back in fantasy football right now. Our projections have Foster as RB34 and the 84th overall player while he's currently the 62nd overall player off the board.
If the prices to acquire Foster and Ajayi were equal, Ajayi may still profile as the better pick, but considering his discounted cost, Ajayi is a worthwhile gamble in the eighth round. And if the recent trend continues, he may be even cheaper by the time you're done reading this.
