Fantasy Football Mailbag: Friday 12/16/16

Can you trust Michael Thomas over other receivers this week? What about Colin Kaepernick?

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Now, let's answer some questions.

Email submission from Bryan:

I have a WR conundrum moving into our week 15 playoff environment. I have two slots to fill in a standard, non-ppr league.

WR 1 is Mike Evans and a no brainer, I have a WR2 and a flex to fill with two of the following: D. Inman vs OAK, Rishard Matthews @ KC, Mike Thomas @ ARI (who burned me last week with the last minute injury), or two lesser options in Tyler Boyd or Rashad Jennings.

I don't trust the latter two and I am on the fence with Mike Thomas. As it stands now, I have Inman and Matthews as a go. Is this the best option?

Let's head straight to the projections!

Dontrelle Inman4.330.508.16
Rishard Matthews8.771.3816.16
Michael Thomas7.552.1112.99
Tyler Boyd4.861.308.42
Rashad Jennings8.970.3717.57

Because it's non-PPR, Rashad Jennings is going to look pretty good by comparison to these fringe receivers. I know there are concerns with Paul Perkins stealing snaps, but Jennings has played at least 50% of the New York Giants' snaps in every game since Week 7. Against a pretty modest Detroit Lions run defense, which ranks 14th by our metrics since Week 8, and as a four-point favorite, Jennings looks pretty safe if that's the route you need to go.

As for your receiver slot, I'd lean toward Michael Thomas, who will likely be covered by Marcus Cooper, a matchup he should win. Dontrelle Inman's matchup against T.J. Carrie is a bit iffy, as is Rishard Matthews' against Marcus Peters.

Probably, yeah. Colin Kaepernick is projected as our QB11 for the week, and it's unlikely you can find a better replacement. The Atlanta Falcons rank 24th against the pass by our metrics since Week 8 and are the best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks this season.

He's certainly not a lock for production, but Kaepernick is a solid waiver-wire quarterback option in Week 15.

First off, great dog avatar. As for your question, it depends on your team construction, I think. If you want the safest plays because your team is a big favorite, I'd sit Jordan Reed for the sole fact that he's injured. He's going through one-on-one drills on Friday, but unless you have Vernon Davis, you don't want to risk Reed sitting unexpectedly on Monday Night Football. He also has a propensity to miss snaps, and he's a 6.5-point favorite. If they pull away, he could get yanked for health reasons.

If you're looking for upside, I'd consider benching Tyler Eifert, whose Cincinnati Bengals have an implied total of just 20.5 as a 3-point underdog against the Pittsburgh Steelers. You want tight ends to be favorites and have high implied totals. It's hard to sit him, of course, but you have plenty of great options on this list.

Back-to-back great dog avatars. What an awesome mailbag.

My heart is telling me Alshon Jeffery, and our projections kind of are, too. Our algorithm sees him scoring 15.13 PPR points this week, with a floor of 6.01 and a ceiling of 24.25.

However, I understand your concerns regarding his return from suspension. Davante Adams actually has a similar projection of 15.14 points with a higher floor (9.76 points) and a lower ceiling (20.52 points).

I think the safe bet is Adams, for that reason, but I can't fault you for going after Jeffery's upside.

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