Aaron Rodgers' Injury: What To Do If You Own Him
Injuries happen. It's simply a part of the game. It's like Jacksonville losing and Dave Wannstedt getting fired. What separates the good and bad fantasy GMs, however, is the ability to adapt and make the right decisions as these kinds of events come up - and we've got just the analysis you need to move on from what ails Aaron Rodgers.
(Note: This was written after the Monday night game, when it was widely circulated that Aaron had suffered a broken collarbone. It will be updated accordingly if the diagnosis is different throughout the week.)
Option 1: Scour Waivers
This is most likely the path of least resistance. Depending on the quality of your fellow GM and the size of your league, you've probably got at least two or three startable options available. The obvious places to start are with Nick Foles and Case Keenum. Here's what we wrote about both, in this week's waiver article.
Nick Foles:
Now, it's fair to temper expectations at this point and say there's just no way he'll be able to play at that level or near it week in and week out. That much should be common sense. What we do know, however, is the Eagles have a very beatable schedule coming up - Packers, Redskins, Cardinals, and Lions - and with the emergence of Riley Cooper and the steadiness of LeSean McCoy at his disposal, he's going to be borderline top-10 weekly as long as he can stay healthy. Oh, and his top statistical comparables are Cam Newton 2012 and 2009 Philip Rivers, so there's that.
Case Keenum:
In the first half against the Colts, Keenum was downright electric, despite an ineffective Ben Tate and an injured Arian Foster not helping his cause. He was efficient, made quick decisions, and even made a few plays with his feet.
And then the second half happened. Not that he was bad, but rather he regressed into what is likely his ceiling: a replacement-level Eli Manning, in his good years.
So let's focus not necessarily on his inconsistency - which we should expect, he's an undrafted rookie who looks like you or me on the practice field - and instead focus on his matchup the next three weeks: Arizona, Oakland and Jacksonville. His top statistical comparable is Chris Chandler 2001, which indicates non-flashy competence.
Beyond that, it's possible you've got a great option in Jake Locker, who has great comparables and a Passing NEP per pass of 0.13, meaning he adds 0.13 points to his team's offense over a league-average quarterback on a per-play basis. With Jacksonville on the slate next, he's a great spot-starter with the upside to give your team wins in future weeks as well.
After Locker, next is line is likely Terrelle Pryor and his traveling freak show of skills, but in most leagues, we're getting into the sub-replacement level territory where you're better off exploring something via trade or simply staying put with whatever backup you've likely assembled.
Option 2: Buy Low in the Trade Market
Let's assume for the sake of argument that any top-tier starters are unavailable, and you're left trying to pick backups off of your fellow owners. Your best bet here is attack someone's weakness with one of your team strengths - for example, trade a RB to the guy starting Rashard Mendenhall - or to target players whose current value is lower than their expected value in the future. Let's look at two examples.
A great target here is Ben Roethlisberger. You don't need to tell me that his team is in shambles, but that also means he's going to throw the ball all over the field to make up for his team's defensive shortcomings. The 400-plus yards against a solid Patriots defense is certainly no fluke, and as long as he's dependable options in Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Heath Miller, he'll have opportunities to roll up some big yards. Ben's next three weeks include the Bills, Lions, and Browns; while it's true that Buffalo is better than most think, the game is at Heinz Field so it shapes up to be a green-light for Ben both this week and for the forseeable future. Each of those teams rank outside of the top 10 in adjusted defensive passing NEP.
Another opportunity could be Eli Manning. He may wildly overrated in general on the basis of the myth of "clutch", but he's underrated this year due to his terrible start and the lack of any kind of rushing attack or line stability. He's picked up his game as of late - the fact that they've also found a running game also is not a coincidence - and he's got decent matchups ahead (OAK, GB, DAL, WAS, SD) although they're not as beefy as Ben's.
Lastly, you could try to grab Andy Dalton off of his rough TNF outing against the Chiefs, but that's a much harder sell. Entering last week, Dalton had a three-game stretch playing at a Peyton Manning-like level efficiency-wise, and although he fell back to Earth on Thursday, owners may not be ready to give him up. Dalton gets Baltimore and Cleveland before the Bengals bye week, two teams that are very average when adjusted for strength of opponent at defending the pass.
Option 3: Ride Your Backups
This one requires a little more intestinal fortitude. It's possible that you're in a deep league and thus, no options are available. It's also possible you'd just rather go with who's on your bench and use your waiver priority/budget elsewhere. This makes sense if you're really soft at WR - you should take a run at Riley Cooper or Aaron Dobson in that case. It also makes sense if you need a win and you have some RB trouble, as both Rashad Jennings and even Jonathan Stewart will be able to help you get some crucial points.
I'd also recommend dropping into the numberFire Q&A forum for some help if you're considering this route; we've got over 100,000 users who would love to make sure you're making the right decision.
Option 4: Give numberFire $1,000,000
Well, this might not help your team out much. It would help us tremendously however, and there's serious karma in that!
Or, you could simply sign up for one of our Premium packages - we're providing serious value to thousands of customers every single day, whether it's daily fantasy players who need help with their lineups or handicappers who want to get an edge of Vegas.
Speaking of Vegas, did you know we're 59-41 on NFL totals this year? Or that we've never had an unprofitable season on the gridiron? Click here to find out more!
