FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Super Bowl LII
If you've never played daily fantasy football on FanDuel before, it's time to start. Unlike traditional leagues, you're able to select the players you want on that specific day only, giving you a different squad to root for each and every week.
Here at numberFire we offer great tools for premium members. The analysis below is meant to help you understand why some of these players are top picks in our tools and projections because we don't want you going into the weekend completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things can change drastically if an injury is announced, so make sure you're double checking the tools and projections as close as possible to kickoff.
Let's break down the Super Bowl from a DFS perspective.
Game Format
Like we saw last week for the Pro Bowl, the format for the Super Bowl slate is different than what you've played all season
For this week's Super Bowl, you roster five players -- regardless of position. One of them has his points doubled.
You have the usual $60,000 salary cap for your five flex spots, and you have to roster at least one player from each team. Scoring is the same as usual, aside from the player you choose to flex in the multiplier slot.
General Trends
Anything can happen in a single game, but one of the constants in the past few Super Bowls has been quarterback production. James White's 40.9-point FanDuel outing a year ago is the top fantasy score in the Super Bowl since 2011, but the other four in the top five all came from quarterbacks.
Five of the eight players to post at least 20 FanDuel points in the past six Super Bowls have been quarterbacks. You may want to consider strongly placing either Tom Brady or Nick Foles into your multiplier slot.
In the past six seasons, eight wide receivers, six running backs, and two tight ends have scored at least 15 FanDuel points in the big game.
Just 4 of the 12 kickers (yes, they're in play this week) have hit double-digit FanDuel points in the past six Super Bowls. However, value is hard to find this week.
Picks
Tom Brady (FanDuel Price: $17,000) - If you can afford Brady, you should strongly consider plugging him into your multiplier slot. He's one of three players projected for double-digit FanDuel points this week, and we project him for 20.12. The Philadelphia Eagles rank 7th in adjusted yards per attempt and 12th in passing FanDuel points per attempt since Week 12, so the matchup isn't stellar, but Brady has notched at least 15.6 FanDuel points in five straight games. With the likely compressed ceiling for the other players in this game -- given the way that the teams share the ball -- starting with Brady and differentiating elsewhere is a smart bet.
Rob Gronkowski ($14,500) - Gronk says he'll play this weekend despite concussion concerns. If you start your lineups with the Brady/Gronk stack, you're left with just $9,500 per player. That doesn't get you very far, but rolling the dice elsewhere could pay off if this stack hits. The Eagles rank 13th in receiving FanDuel points per target to tight ends since Week 12 and on the full season. Gronkowski leads all pass-catchers in the game with a 23.24% target market share over the past five games.
Nick Foles ($14,000) - Despite an improving defensive front, the New England Patriots have allowed the 20th-highest adjusted yards per attempt rate in the league since Week 12, as well as the 15th-most passing FanDuel points per attempt. Foles has flashed 25-FanDuel-point upside in two of his four games of extended action. The other two resulted in single-digit fantasy days. Still, the trends suggest trying to force in a quarterback-quarterback stack is the highest floor move you can make this week.
Danny Amendola ($12,500) - Neither team has a good matchup on the ground, as both rush defenses have been tough down the stretch. So going after the passing games makes a lot of sense. Amendola has 29 targets in his past three games, with an average of 16.0 FanDuel points in that span. Philadelphia's weakness covering the middle of the field should benefit Amendola and Gronkowski.
Nelson Agholor ($11,000) - When running routes from the slot, Agholor will face Eric Rowe, a much better matchup than what Alshon Jeffery will have against Stephon Gilmore on the outside. Agholor has seen just 10 targets over the past three games, but he's played at least 70% of snaps in two straight. He had flashed elite efficiency while playing with Carson Wentz, and if this plus matchup brings out that type of performance, Agholor could wind up as the Eagles' x-factor.
James White ($10,000) - Since Week 12, the Eagles rank 9th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends, per our metrics, 13th against wide receivers, and 22nd against running backs. Combine that with their stout run defense (top four in Rushing Success Rate since Week 12), and we have a scenario where the Patriots would benefit from peppering backs out of the backfield. That starts with White, who has seen 12 targets across his two playoff games. Of course, Dion Lewis ($13,000) has had 18 targets in that span and would rank third in target market share over the past three games (19.08%; behind Amendola's 22.14% and Brandin Cooks' 21.37%). The only issue with Lewis is his price.
Jake Elliott ($8,500) - Any players below $10,000 look like complete stabs. You can build lineups with certain scripts and make things work. For example, a Patriots onslaught with Corey Clement ($7,000), as the Eagles' pass-catching back, or Torrey Smith ($8,000) for his big-play ability would do the trick. Or throw in a LeGarrette Blount ($9,000) lineup in case the Eagles build a lead and feed the running backs. Perhaps the safest value to target is the kickers. Elliott and Stephen Gostkowski ($9,500) work as salary relief. We project Gostkowski for 9.33 FanDuel points and Elliott for 8.20, making them top-eight projected scorers despite salary-saving prices.
