NFL

Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 5

JJ Zachariason  —  @LateRoundQB Oct 3rd, 2018

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 5's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team Pass Att Rush Att Ratio +/- 6 Ratio RZ Plays RZ Ratio GL Plays GL Ratio
ARI 114 76 1.50 1.00 13 1.60 4 1.00
ATL 145 96 1.51 1.92 50 1.38 13 0.86
BAL 175 114 1.54 1.92 47 0.88 12 0.50
BUF 121 98 1.23 1.36 23 0.77 8 1.67
CAR 95 91 1.04 1.03 29 0.71 9 0.50
CHI 130 116 1.12 1.06 37 1.85 12 2.00
CIN 157 84 1.87 1.59 41 1.73 10 1.00
CLE 148 129 1.15 1.24 30 0.67 14 0.56
DAL 115 101 1.14 0.92 28 1.15 6 2.00
DEN 141 106 1.33 1.46 28 0.75 10 0.67
DET 171 86 1.99 1.93 31 2.88 3 No Rush
GB 164 91 1.80 1.22 29 2.22 4 3.00
HOU 148 114 1.30 1.60 51 1.55 16 2.20
IND 187 80 2.34 2.37 44 2.67 10 4.00
JAX 150 105 1.43 1.52 25 0.79 6 2.00
KC 138 106 1.30 1.20 44 1.44 17 1.13
LAC 147 95 1.55 1.08 45 1.37 12 1.40
LAR 135 114 1.18 1.28 60 1.07 12 0.71
MIA 100 92 1.09 1.27 22 0.69 1 No Rush
MIN 189 73 2.59 1.88 24 2.00 3 2.00
NE 135 114 1.18 1.13 38 1.11 4 1.00
NO 163 95 1.72 1.86 74 1.55 13 0.86
NYG 151 82 1.84 1.63 32 1.46 6 1.00
NYJ 127 99 1.28 1.31 30 0.76 5 0.67
OAK 169 111 1.52 1.35 50 1.50 7 0.75
PHI 170 108 1.57 1.52 49 0.96 7 0.40
PIT 186 81 2.30 1.76 31 3.43 8 1.00
SEA 121 111 1.09 1.06 20 1.22 6 0.50
SF 126 103 1.22 1.33 51 1.22 12 0.71
TB 149 91 1.64 1.36 35 1.92 11 2.67
TEN 124 120 1.03 1.05 29 1.23 7 0.75
WAS 96 99 0.97 0.92 32 0.68 8 0.33


Even though Andrew Luck's arm strength has been questioned this year, the Colts currently have the highest pass-to-rush ratio in neutral game script situations. That's partially because they just can't run the football, ranking 30th in per-play efficiency according to numberFire's expected points model (more on that below). It does bode well for Indianapolis pass-catchers in fantasy football, though -- volume should be there all season long.

Going into Week 4, the Patriots had only run one goal-line play all season long. This past Sunday, they upped that number to four, and we got to see Sony Michel as the running back receiving that goal-line work. Entering 2018, the Patriots were tied with the Panthers for the most goal-line rushes run over the past three years. If New England's offense gets going, Michel could be a fantastic fantasy football asset.

The Cardinals have run so few offensive plays this year, but if there's one positive sign, they threw and ran the ball 10 more times in sum than their average from the first three weeks of the season. There was signs of life with Josh Rosen under center. It's still crazy that they've run fewer plays than Washington, though, who had their bye in Week 4.

The Cleveland Browns lead the league in rushing touchdowns, and a lot of that has to do with their low pass-to-rush attempt ratio in the red zone -- it's the lowest in the league. They've got a well below-average ratio at the goal line, too. You could argue that this will continue to bode well for Carlos Hyde, but we could also see a little regression as well. It makes him somewhat of a sell candidate in fantasy football.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team Adj NEP Adj Pass NEP Adj Rush NEP Adj D NEP Adj D Pass NEP Adj D Rush NEP
ARI -0.57 11.75 -11.47 11.89 8.72 5.81
ATL 50.01 44.76 -3.65 48.58 41.06 11.61
BAL 25.56 21.74 -2.93 -21.39 -5.82 -14.83
BUF -40.23 -24.51 -7.98 11.01 16.14 -6.13
CAR 13.52 11.28 8.60 6.84 8.96 4.62
CHI 27.30 15.83 7.98 2.52 3.60 -3.51
CIN 57.48 51.11 3.58 20.64 13.93 5.08
CLE -15.52 -30.23 10.28 -10.80 -5.05 -3.31
DAL 8.82 -5.77 12.46 26.72 32.56 -2.06
DEN 17.26 3.69 17.55 18.53 23.81 -0.10
DET 20.70 17.03 5.44 47.05 31.38 10.99
GB 16.08 17.73 9.15 22.88 11.79 7.21
HOU 29.32 35.92 0.24 45.84 60.97 -11.25
IND 11.16 9.97 -8.47 10.15 6.32 -2.32
JAX 27.91 39.65 -5.13 -2.31 0.45 -6.07
KC 74.33 55.17 15.77 73.30 55.31 16.13
LAC 73.14 61.05 6.35 10.80 4.93 10.94
LAR 34.41 36.83 5.24 22.04 27.02 -0.40
MIA 9.57 21.84 -9.64 28.61 18.07 3.72
MIN 28.41 41.29 -10.79 39.20 32.61 -0.37
NE 37.79 26.07 9.29 18.67 18.21 -0.71
NO 43.03 41.76 -1.93 51.34 53.38 -6.05
NYG 4.39 -11.17 10.66 24.12 17.30 14.40
NYJ -1.09 8.14 -3.22 -1.03 -2.70 -0.93
OAK 39.07 42.84 1.24 38.89 31.12 11.01
PHI -0.22 -17.36 6.65 5.55 -1.77 -1.53
PIT 15.04 24.54 -2.68 15.83 8.41 2.93
SEA 2.70 3.39 -3.91 8.30 16.48 -16.79
SF -7.96 -10.83 -1.44 19.47 14.33 -3.15
TB 38.12 46.53 -2.12 61.62 66.79 -0.40
TEN 9.34 7.44 4.57 13.36 21.87 3.63
WAS 26.57 21.74 3.87 11.65 0.30 12.81


The Chargers probably have the most underrated offense in football. According to Net Expected Points, it's the second-best in the league and just one point off of the first-place Chiefs. That environment has really allowed Melvin Gordon to showcase his talent and thrive. He's an easy top-five running back in fantasy football from here on out.

When adjusted for strength of opponent, Baltimore has numberFire's top-ranked secondary. And that's without top cornerback Jimmy Smith, who's back this week from a four-game suspension. They'll get Baker Mayfield and the Browns in Week 5, making Mayfield a clear sit in fantasy football. It's not a matchup you want to mess with this year.

The Buccaneers have a classic funnel defense. They're decent enough at stopping the run, but they can't defend the pass. At all. They rank as numberFire's worst secondary, having allowed about 47 more points than an average team would have over the first four games of the season. They've got a bye this week, but in a matchup against the Falcons in Week 6, Matt Ryan should go berserk.

Team Directional Passing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

The Bengals passing attack has a host of plus matchups upcoming on their schedule. Miami's probably their toughest opponent defensively over the next handful of weeks, but even they're still beatable. Looking at the chart above, you've got to be a little intrigued by what Andy Dalton may be able to do with the middle of the field. That should benefit Tyler Boyd, who's seen about 23% of their targets this year, but don't sleep on C.J. Uzomah. Tyler Kroft filled in for Tyler Eifert when he went down last year, but in Week 4, Uzomah ran 29 routes according to Pro Football Focus, while Kroft ran just 4. He looks like the pass-catching tight end in the offense, and makes for a deep (deep) sleeper in Week 5. Boyd should be the one who benefits most from the Eifert injury.

Derek Carr really hasn't been that bad this year. In fact, he's been good. Of the 34 quarterbacks with 50 or more drop backs in 2018, Carr ranks third in Success Rate, which measures the percentage of positive expected point plays made by a quarterback. He's listed behind only Jared Goff and Drew Brees.

This week, Oakland's taking on a Chargers defense and secondary that's struggling this year. They rank in the bottom eight against the pass, per Net Expected Points, and they've allowed big performances to Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes, but even C.J. Beathard posted over 17 fantasy points against them in Week 4. With a high over/under, the Chargers-Raiders game could see some points, and that would benefit Carr greatly in fantasy football. He's not a bad streamer this week.

We could see a lot of passes from Minnesota this week. Philadelphia has faced the highest pass-to-rush ratio in the league to start the year, and the Vikings are fifth in the NFL in neutral game script ratio and first in total pass-to-rush attempt ratio. We should expect a lot of tosses aimed at Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen -- specifically Thielen, who'll see a good number of slot snaps against the defense that's allowed the highest yards per play rate to the middle of the field this year.

The New Orleans secondary has been really bad this year. Per Pro Football Focus, Ken Crawley and P.J. Williams have allowed seven combined receiving touchdowns -- only 11 cornerbacks have allowed 3 or more touchdowns this year, and 2 of them are on the Saints. Alex Smith is most definitely in play this week, as are his receivers. Specifically his perimeter ones. (I'm looking at you, Paul Richardson.)

After a really strong Week 1, Emmanuel Sanders has cooled off a bit. He's still been good, but he hasn't been Week-1-good. Having played 62.1% of his snaps from the slot this year, he could see a big performance in Week 5 against the Jets. Buster Skrine has allowed the ninth-most yards per snap in the slot this year, per Pro Football Focus, and as you can see in the chart above, New York's most vulnerable in the middle of the field. Sanders is in a great spot this week.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

Washington's secondary has been one of the better ones in the NFL to start the year, but the rush defense has had some holes. You can sort of notice that from the chart, but according to numberFire's Net Expected Points model, only Kansas City has allowed a higher Success Rate on the ground to opposing running backs than Washington has this year. Alvin Kamara will eat, but don't forget that Mark Ingram is back this week, too. He's a good start.

I already mentioned the type of pass-to-run splits that Philadelphia's faced this season, and a big part of that is their front seven. Teams can't get much done on the ground against them. That's even more reason for Minnesota to throw -- on the year, Vikings' running backs have a 25.5% Success Rate, worst in the league.

It'll be interesting to see how Dallas' offense handles their matchup against the Texans on Sunday night. Houston's been great on a per-play basis against the run, and we know what Dallas wants to do offensively. They want to feature Ezekiel Elliott. That may be easier said than done this week on the road.

Detroit's been awful at stopping the run this year, ranking third-worst in Success Rate allowed while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to the position. Green Bay Packer running backs should be able to take advantage this week. We didn't see number-one running back usage from Aaron Jones in his second game of the season this past weekend, but his snap rate did increase from 24.6% in Week 3 to 38.2% in Week 4. As the most efficient runner in that offense, he deserves more work. And, hey, maybe this is a sign of a trend.

Running Back Usage

Player Att Rush % Targets Target % Snap % Last Wk Rate RZ Att RZ Targets GL Att
Alvin Kamara 56 58.95% 47 28.83% 82.1% 84.3% 20 15 5
Todd Gurley 79 69.30% 20 14.81% 84.3% 96.4% 20 6 6
Melvin Gordon 54 56.84% 34 23.13% 72.2% 72.1% 8 9 0
Saquon Barkley 56 68.29% 35 23.18% 80.2% 87.1% 10 3 3
Ezekiel Elliott 73 72.28% 22 19.13% 89.1% 76.8% 9 2 2
James Conner 63 77.78% 24 12.90% 86.8% 79.4% 6 3 3
James White 21 18.42% 30 22.22% 50.9% 49.4% 4 5 0
Carlos Hyde 83 64.34% 7 4.73% 57.4% 61% 14 1 9
Marshawn Lynch 68 61.26% 13 7.69% 52.1% 54.3% 13 5 3
T.J. Yeldon 49 46.67% 22 14.67% 61.9% 62.3% 10 3 2
Kareem Hunt 71 66.98% 7 5.07% 64.2% 57.7% 11 2 5
Christian McCaffrey 46 50.55% 26 27.37% 93% 0% 8 1 2
David Johnson 56 73.68% 19 16.67% 81.2% 91.7% 4 4 2
Austin Ekeler 28 29.47% 14 9.52% 33.6% 33.8% 6 3 2
Nyheim Hines 18 22.50% 26 13.90% 56.8% 68.9% 4 3 0
Matt Breida 41 39.81% 12 9.52% 47.7% 63.3% 7 2 1
Giovani Bernard 34 40.48% 21 13.38% 57.2% 60.3% 6 1 2
Adrian Peterson 56 56.57% 6 6.25% 46.3% 0% 12 0 5
Javorius Allen 26 22.81% 19 10.86% 46.2% 44.2% 8 2 4
Tevin Coleman 54 56.25% 12 8.28% 62.7% 57.1% 7 2 2
Tarik Cohen 27 23.28% 16 12.31% 39.9% 47.5% 4 3 0
Dion Lewis 43 35.83% 21 16.94% 61.3% 67.6% 3 1 1
Chris Thompson 15 15.15% 23 23.96% 50.5% 0% 2 3 1
Isaiah Crowell 42 42.42% 7 5.51% 42.8% 36.4% 9 0 2
Phillip Lindsay 45 42.45% 8 5.67% 33.2% 40% 7 0 3
Alex Collins 45 39.47% 10 5.71% 44.9% 48.1% 8 4 3
Jordan Howard 64 55.17% 12 9.23% 65.3% 54.1% 7 2 3
Kerryon Johnson 38 44.19% 13 7.60% 38.2% 37% 3 2 0
Bilal Powell 39 39.39% 16 12.60% 52.3% 63.6% 4 1 1
Royce Freeman 44 41.51% 2 1.42% 33.6% 26.7% 8 0 2
Jay Ajayi 37 34.26% 5 2.94% 40.2% 52.6% 8 2 4
Lamar Miller 58 50.88% 10 6.76% 69.8% 53.5% 12 1 2
Jalen Richard 8 7.21% 23 13.61% 32.2% 37% 0 2 0
Joe Mixon 38 45.24% 8 5.10% 41.3% 0% 7 1 3
Theo Riddick 5 5.81% 27 15.79% 41.8% 46.3% 1 5 0
Corey Clement 27 25.00% 10 5.88% 39.1% 0% 8 0 0
Kenyan Drake 33 35.87% 14 14.00% 61.9% 44.9% 5 1 0
Chris Carson 45 40.54% 8 6.61% 49% 0% 3 0 1
Ty Montgomery 16 17.58% 15 9.15% 31.6% 26.3% 1 1 0
Mike Davis 24 21.62% 6 4.96% 31.8% 71.2% 4 0 2
Wendell Smallwood 22 20.37% 11 6.47% 28.9% 46.2% 3 2 1
Sony Michel 49 42.98% 5 3.70% 36.3% 40.7% 11 0 2
Chris Ivory 31 31.63% 6 4.96% 36.7% 37.9% 3 0 1
Dalvin Cook 36 49.32% 12 6.35% 57.3% 24.3% 4 0 1
Alfred Morris 44 42.72% 5 3.97% 39.5% 23.3% 9 0 6
Ito Smith 18 18.75% 8 5.52% 21.4% 42.9% 9 2 2
Nick Chubb 10 7.75% 0 0.00% 4.8% 3.7% 1 0 0
Frank Gore 35 38.04% 4 4.00% 38.6% 51% 4 1 0
Kyle Juszczyk 0 0.00% 13 10.32% 60.5% 61.7% 0 3 0
Duke Johnson 12 9.30% 16 10.81% 39.4% 35.4% 1 1 0
Jamaal Williams 47 51.65% 9 5.49% 50.4% 36.8% 3 0 0
Jordan Wilkins 38 47.50% 8 4.28% 40.4% 34.4% 3 4 1
Aaron Jones 17 18.68% 2 1.22% 31.7% 38.2% 2 0 1
Derrick Henry 54 45.00% 4 3.23% 40.6% 39.4% 9 1 2
LeSean McCoy 21 21.43% 13 10.74% 53.8% 60.3% 1 0 0
Latavius Murray 19 26.03% 9 4.76% 40.8% 55.4% 3 0 0
Alfred Blue 29 25.44% 4 2.70% 28.1% 46.5% 2 2 1
Corey Grant 12 11.43% 12 8.00% 23.5% 9.1% 0 2 0
Peyton Barber 50 54.95% 6 4.03% 60.9% 49.2% 6 2 2
Devontae Booker 11 10.38% 11 7.80% 32.5% 33.3% 0 1 0


As I talked through in this week's 15 Transactions column, James White is a great high-floor play each week, but we should pump the brakes on his ceiling. The table above lists players by fantasy points scored, meaning White is currently the seventh-best running back in PPR formats. But he's got a 22.2% target share, and he's yet to see a goal-line rush. The former should dip a little due to natural regression (running backs usually won't maintain that type of share) and Julian Edelman's return, while the latter won't change much as the season progresses, as Sony Michel is the team's goal-line back. That doesn't mean James White is a bad fantasy asset to have. He should be able to finish as an RB2 this year, which is far better than where you drafted him. It's just important to have reasonable expectations for players in fantasy football.

Everyone's talking about Nick Chubb after his huge game on Sunday, but that big performance came on a grand total of three snaps played. He's showing that he's a beast, but without a larger snap share -- he's been on the field for fewer than 5% of Cleveland's plays this season -- Chubb won't be getting it done in fantasy football. He's not a bad flier if you want to stash him, but you certainly can't trust him in Week 5. It's still Carlos Hyde's backfield.

Royce Freeman has been great this year (Did you see his touchdown run against the Chiefs?), but the problem is, so has fellow rookie back Phillip Lindsay. Freeman's 45.5% Success Rate is well above average, but Lindsay's 57.8% rate is the best in the NFL among 30-plus attempt rushers. And a big issue for Freeman right now is that he hasn't monopolized goal-line work. Lindsay, through four weeks, now has more rushes at the goal line. With a larger target share, Lindsay is becoming the clear back to own of the two in fantasy football.

Kareem Hunt tallied four targets in KC's win over Denver on Monday night, which more than doubled his season's average. If that type of usage continues, then he's back up to being a firm RB1. Without the volume through the air, he was more of a lower-end RB1 with lots of touchdown upside. Week 4 was a big one for Hunt.

In Week 4, Peyton Barber gave up some of his work to rookie Ronald Jones, playing fewer than 50% of Tampa Bay's snaps. He's been completely useless from a fantasy football perspective this year, scoring fewer points than the aforementioned Nick Chubb on 144 more snaps played. Even though his peripheral numbers are decent, he's not getting it done. You can drop him, especially with Ronald Jones stealing work now.

Why won't the Lions use Kerryon Johnson more? Good freaking question. He found the end zone on Sunday, but he still carried the ball just nine times, when LeGarrette Blount had seven attempts. On the year, Johnson has a 47.4% Success Rate (8th-best among the 46 running backs with 25 or more attempts), while Blount's is 22.86% (second-worst). Johnson should grab hold of this backfield eventually, and if he does, he could dominate.

Wide Receiver Usage

Player Targets Target % Snap % Last Wk Rate RZ Targets < 10 Targets GL Targets
Michael Thomas 44 26.99% 93.2% 94.3% 11 6 2
Adam Thielen 56 29.63% 97.5% 98.6% 5 0 0
Mike Evans 39 26.17% 81.6% 90.5% 2 1 1
Golden Tate 44 25.73% 79.6% 77.8% 2 2 1
DeAndre Hopkins 44 29.73% 99.7% 100% 6 5 3
Cooper Kupp 32 23.70% 97.8% 96.4% 10 6 0
Julio Jones 46 31.72% 78.6% 77.1% 3 2 1
Stefon Diggs 44 23.28% 85.2% 83.8% 2 1 1
Brandin Cooks 33 24.44% 97% 94.5% 7 3 1
Calvin Ridley 21 14.48% 59.4% 54.3% 5 1 0
Juju Smith-Schuster 49 26.34% 86.1% 95.2% 13 4 3
Tyreek Hill 32 23.19% 85.8% 89.7% 3 2 1
AJ Green 33 21.02% 83.6% 97.3% 9 4 3
DeSean Jackson 22 14.77% 52.1% 61.9% 1 0 0
Robert Woods 34 25.19% 97.4% 100% 5 4 3
Davante Adams 43 26.22% 98.6% 100% 8 2 1
Antonio Brown 53 28.49% 95.6% 95.2% 5 0 0
Tyler Boyd 36 22.93% 81.4% 84.9% 5 0 0
Emmanuel Sanders 30 21.28% 86.6% 90% 0 0 0
Kenny Golladay 32 18.71% 92.4% 98.1% 3 3 1
John Brown 30 17.14% 68.5% 58.4% 3 3 1
Odell Beckham Jr 45 29.80% 95.8% 95.2% 4 1 1
Jarvis Landry 47 31.76% 90% 89% 6 4 3
T.Y. Hilton 38 20.32% 81.2% 47.8% 6 4 4
Will Fuller 25 16.89% 67.9% 31.4% 3 3 2
Sterling Shepard 29 19.21% 92.8% 95.2% 6 3 2
Tyler Lockett 23 19.01% 92.6% 93.9% 1 0 0
Geronimo Allison 29 17.68% 74.8% 73.7% 3 1 0
Corey Davis 39 31.45% 85.4% 84.5% 6 5 2
Jordy Nelson 24 14.20% 85.3% 87% 4 2 0
Keenan Allen 36 24.49% 84.9% 83.8% 5 3 1
Taylor Gabriel 29 22.31% 83.4% 78.7% 5 4 3
Dede Westbrook 28 18.67% 66.4% 74% 0 0 0
Amari Cooper 30 17.75% 85.7% 87% 4 3 0
Quincy Enunwa 37 29.13% 81.1% 94.5% 6 2 0
Kenny Stills 19 19.00% 89.8% 77.6% 1 1 0
Mike Williams 18 12.24% 63.3% 67.6% 3 2 0
Chris Godwin 22 14.77% 54.8% 49.2% 6 6 3
Marvin Jones 29 16.96% 93.1% 92.6% 7 5 1
Nelson Agholor 39 22.94% 93.9% 92.3% 6 2 1
Albert Wilson 17 17.00% 50.7% 73.5% 1 0 0
Allen Robinson 32 24.62% 93% 86.9% 5 2 2
Keelan Cole 24 16.00% 81.7% 77.9% 1 0 0
Phillip Dorsett 26 19.26% 81.1% 70.4% 5 2 1
Willie Snead 26 14.86% 57% 51.9% 1 0 0
Ryan Grant 22 11.76% 78.4% 78.9% 2 1 1
Demaryius Thomas 33 23.40% 81% 85% 4 2 2
Sammy Watkins 21 15.22% 66.8% 15.4% 4 0 0
Michael Crabtree 34 19.43% 72.3% 63.6% 2 1 0
Mohamed Sanu 24 16.55% 80.4% 78.6% 2 1 1
Randall Cobb 27 16.46% 91.3% 0% 2 0 0
Ted Ginn 22 13.50% 60.9% 54.3% 4 1 1
Donte Moncrief 22 14.67% 75.4% 77.9% 2 2 1
Jakeem Grant 16 16.00% 45.1% 63.3% 1 0 0
Devin Funchess 21 22.11% 87.1% 0% 4 2 1
Cole Beasley 21 18.26% 62.3% 55.1% 2 0 0
Taywan Taylor 19 15.32% 42.1% 63.4% 2 0 0
Antonio Callaway 24 16.22% 61.6% 69.5% 2 1 1
Christian Kirk 20 17.54% 73.6% 66.7% 0 0 0
Chester Rogers 21 11.23% 63.4% 80% 2 0 0


Calvin Ridley has seen fewer than 15% of Atlanta's targets this year, and he's played 59% of the Falcons' snaps. Yet, here we are, waiting for Week 5, and Calvin Ridley is the 10th-highest scoring wide receiver in fantasy football. As you'll see in the last table below, Ridley's a huge candidate for touchdown regression, though he does have great matchups in Weeks 5 and 6.

In Pittsburgh, Antonio Brown has gotten off to a slow-ish start this season. He should be fine given his high target share, but it's worth noting that he hasn't seen a target within the opponent's 10-yard line yet this year. And Pittsburgh's run 12 plays from that area of the field.

Two players with incredible usage in average (perhaps below-average) offenses are Jarvis Landry and Corey Davis. Both wideouts have targets shares north of 30%, and they've each been looked at in the red zone six times. Landry's three targets within the opponent's five-yard line is especially awesome -- maybe the regression talked about earlier in Cleveland's offense will benefit him most.

Courtland Sutton isn't in the table above, but he leads the Broncos with two end zone targets. Demaryius Thomas has one. Emmanuel Sanders, the most useful wideout in Denver? Zero. In fact, Sanders hasn't even been targeted in the red zone this year. He's the only top-30 wide receiver in fantasy football without a look within the opponent's 20-yard line. The only way he makes a jump into WR1 territory is if that starts to change.

Dede Westbrook also hasn't seen a red-zone look, but he officially jumped teammate Keelan Cole in the fantasy football standings after Week 4's performance. On the year, Westbrook now has a slightly higher target share, but his 4.8 average depth of target (aDOT) is much lower than Cole's 7.8 and Donte Moncrief's 11.3. It's sort of a mess to figure out in Jacksonville. They each should be deeper plays this week against Kansas City, though. Moncrief specifically is interesting, as the Chiefs have allowed the second-most air yards in football, and he's been the one getting down the field for Jacksonville.

Tight End Usage

Player Targets Target % Snap % Last Wk Rate RZ Targets < 10 Targets GL Targets
Jared Cook 35 20.71% 83.4% 82.6% 8 7 2
Travis Kelce 38 27.54% 95.9% 93.6% 6 2 2
Zach Ertz 47 27.65% 96.8% 97.4% 7 3 1
George Kittle 28 22.22% 79.5% 83.3% 5 2 2
Eric Ebron 30 16.04% 62% 83.3% 8 3 1
Kyle Rudolph 22 11.64% 86.6% 81.1% 2 1 1
Rob Gronkowski 24 17.78% 88.7% 66.7% 1 0 0
Trey Burton 19 14.62% 83.4% 73.8% 3 2 2
O.J. Howard 17 11.41% 58.6% 23.8% 1 0 0
Tyler Eifert 19 12.10% 49.1% 26% 2 0 0
Jimmy Graham 25 15.24% 83.3% 71.1% 3 1 1
Jesse James 12 6.45% 59.3% 44.4% 0 0 0
Vance McDonald 15 8.06% 51.2% 61.9% 1 0 0
Will Dissly 14 11.57% 49.2% 12.1% 2 1 1
Jordan Reed 20 20.83% 56.5% 0% 2 1 1
Austin Hooper 15 10.34% 83.8% 81.4% 4 3 1
Ben Watson 18 11.04% 67% 52.9% 4 2 1
Ricky Seals-Jones 19 16.67% 83.7% 65% 1 1 0
Mark Andrews 13 7.43% 35% 33.8% 2 1 1
Geoff Swaim 16 13.91% 92.7% 92.8% 2 2 2
Evan Engram 13 8.61% 68.2% 0% 1 0 0
David Njoku 23 15.54% 82.3% 84.1% 0 0 0
Austin Seferian-Jenkins 19 12.67% 73.9% 46.8% 1 1 1
Dallas Goedert 12 7.06% 38.6% 39.7% 2 0 0
Maxx Williams 12 6.86% 48.1% 53.2% 3 3 0
Cameron Brate 10 6.71% 40.6% 58.7% 3 1 1
Rhett Ellison 11 7.28% 61.2% 87.1% 2 0 0
Antonio Gates 14 9.52% 34.4% 33.8% 3 3 3
C.J. Uzomah 8 5.10% 59.1% 69.9% 1 1 1
Nick Boyle 16 9.14% 60.8% 72.7% 4 2 1


We've seen Jared Cook's target share drop over the last couple of weeks, but that was to be expected. The good news for Cook truthers is that he's still had really great usage. No tight end has more red-zone targets than Cook this year, and his seven targets from within the opponent's 10-yard line is four more than any other player at the position. At a position as bleak as tight end, Cook should continue to be a strong play.

Geoff Swaim has 16 targets on the season now, but 12 of them have come over the last two weeks. During this time, per Pro Football Focus, Swaim has run 59 routes, when all other Dallas Cowboys tight ends have tallied 18. In Week 5, he'll face off against a Texans defense that's allowed the ninth-most yards to the position this year. If you're in need of a streamer, he's one.

Vance McDonald's a better option this week than Swaim, as he continues to see more and more work in the Steelers' offense. He played about 62% of Pittsburgh's snaps on Sunday night, and has separated himself from Jesse James, having run 32 routes against the Ravens versus James' 11. McDonald is the Steelers primary pass-catching tight end, and he should be rostered in fantasy football.

With O.J. Howard sidelined, Cameron Brate should get more run in the coming weeks. So far this year, the two tight ends have sort of dug into the other's workload, with Howard leading the two with just an 11% target share. They rank in the high 20s in total routes run, too. But without Howard, Brate should be a good tight end option for your fantasy squad. You've just got to wait for them to be done with their bye week to use him.

Deep Ball Passing

Player 15+ Yd Att 15+ Yd Att % 15+ Comp % 15+ % of Tot Yds 15+ Yd TD %
Kirk Cousins 26 13.76% 46.15% 23.50% 60.00%
Ben Roethlisberger 33 17.74% 36.36% 25.46% 37.50%
Andrew Luck 22 11.83% 45.45% 21.23% 11.11%
Joe Flacco 28 16.37% 39.29% 28.19% 25.00%
Derek Carr 22 13.02% 50.00% 23.67% 33.33%
Matthew Stafford 22 13.33% 50.00% 28.04% 25.00%
Drew Brees 24 14.91% 54.17% 24.56% 12.50%
Andy Dalton 24 15.29% 41.67% 26.23% 27.27%
Aaron Rodgers 30 19.23% 33.33% 31.42% 28.57%
Eli Manning 23 15.23% 47.83% 22.37% 25.00%
Blake Bortles 19 12.67% 42.11% 20.55% 28.57%
Deshaun Watson 34 22.97% 47.06% 34.51% 28.57%
Philip Rivers 28 19.05% 42.86% 25.35% 36.36%
Matt Ryan 29 20.00% 51.72% 37.99% 40.00%
Case Keenum 31 21.99% 45.16% 37.55% 33.33%
Patrick Mahomes 34 24.64% 50.00% 39.92% 28.57%
Tom Brady 26 19.26% 30.77% 23.42% 22.22%
Jared Goff 24 17.91% 66.67% 35.99% 45.45%
Mitch Trubisky 25 19.23% 44.00% 38.10% 25.00%
Ryan Fitzpatrick 36 27.91% 55.56% 49.34% 45.45%
Sam Darnold 24 18.90% 41.67% 29.84% 25.00%
Russell Wilson 20 16.53% 35.00% 23.76% 71.43%
Dak Prescott 12 10.43% 41.67% 23.11% 25.00%
Josh Allen 27 26.21% 25.93% 30.78% 50.00%
Alex Smith 11 11.46% 54.55% 26.34% 25.00%
Cam Newton 17 17.89% 41.18% 26.78% 20.00%
Ryan Tannehill 17 18.09% 29.41% 23.63% 42.86%
Jimmy Garoppolo 14 15.73% 42.86% 25.91% 40.00%
Carson Wentz 14 16.09% 50.00% 33.33% 66.67%
Tyrod Taylor 22 26.19% 31.82% 49.13% 50.00%
Nick Foles 14 17.07% 21.43% 18.18% 0.00%
Sam Bradford 12 15.00% 41.67% 35.50% 100.00%
Marcus Mariota 15 19.48% 40.00% 31.26% 0.00%
Baker Mayfield 13 20.31% 53.85% 43.75% 50.00%
Blaine Gabbert 4 8.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
C.J. Beathard 5 13.51% 80.00% 47.65% 50.00%
Josh Rosen 9 26.47% 44.44% 41.67% 100.00%
Jameis Winston 2 10.00% 50.00% 11.03% 100.00%


In this column last week, I noted that Andrew Luck wasn't heaving the ball deep at a very high rate. Because he wasn't. That changed a bit -- just a bit -- in Week 4. Entering the week, 10.5% of his passes were traveling 15 or more yards through the air. In Week 4, that rate was 14.5%. That's still not very high, but it's a lot better than what we'd been seeing from Luck.

Derek Carr was more aggressive last week, too. Almost 19% of his passes were deep, when that rate was just 9.9% entering Week 4. That's a good sign moving forward.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

Player Rush Yds TD Should Have Difference Rec Yds TD Should Have Difference Total Difference
Javorius Allen 62 3 0.41 2.59 87 1 0.38 0.62 3.20
Carlos Hyde 285 5 1.91 3.09 15 0 0.07 -0.07 3.03
Todd Gurley 338 4 2.26 1.74 194 2 0.85 1.15 2.89
Isaiah Crowell 171 4 1.14 2.86 24 0 0.10 -0.10 2.75
Alvin Kamara 275 5 1.84 3.16 336 1 1.47 -0.47 2.69
James White 110 1 0.74 0.26 193 3 0.84 2.16 2.42
Melvin Gordon 276 2 1.85 0.15 199 3 0.87 2.13 2.28
Nyheim Hines 54 1 0.36 0.64 119 2 0.52 1.48 2.12
Jay Ajayi 155 3 1.04 1.96 15 0 0.07 -0.07 1.90
Kareem Hunt 289 3 1.93 1.07 59 1 0.26 0.74 1.81
Alex Collins 158 2 1.06 0.94 70 1 0.31 0.69 1.64
Giovani Bernard 155 3 1.04 1.96 78 0 0.34 -0.34 1.62
Royce Freeman 219 3 1.47 1.53 5 0 0.02 -0.02 1.51
David Johnson 187 2 1.25 0.75 104 1 0.45 0.55 1.29
Mike Davis 104 2 0.70 1.30 29 0 0.13 -0.13 1.18
TJ Yeldon 205 1 1.37 -0.37 125 2 0.55 1.45 1.08
Nick Chubb 146 2 0.98 1.02 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.02
Malcolm Brown 93 0 0.62 -0.62 18 0 0.08 -0.08 -0.70
Rex Burkhead 86 0 0.58 -0.58 31 0 0.14 -0.14 -0.71
Lamar Miller 225 0 1.51 -1.51 54 1 0.24 0.76 -0.74
LeSean McCoy 85 0 0.57 -0.57 41 0 0.18 -0.18 -0.75
Rashaad Penny 92 0 0.62 -0.62 35 0 0.15 -0.15 -0.77
Jalen Richard 25 0 0.17 -0.17 152 0 0.66 -0.66 -0.83
Jordan Wilkins 136 0 0.91 -0.91 25 0 0.11 -0.11 -1.02
Peyton Barber 148 0 0.99 -0.99 13 0 0.06 -0.06 -1.05
Ty Montgomery 72 0 0.48 -0.48 135 0 0.59 -0.59 -1.07
Dalvin Cook 98 0 0.66 -0.66 107 0 0.47 -0.47 -1.12
Derrick Henry 163 0 1.09 -1.09 12 0 0.05 -0.05 -1.14
Jamaal Williams 162 0 1.08 -1.08 28 0 0.12 -0.12 -1.21
Matt Breida 313 1 2.09 -1.09 85 0 0.37 -0.37 -1.47
Christian McCaffrey 271 0 1.81 -1.81 157 0 0.69 -0.69 -2.50


Once again, Javorius Allen leads all running backs in overachieving in the touchdown column, but with Alex Collins' goal-line fumble on Sunday night, Allen could still find the end zone moving forward. It won't be at this rate, but his touchdown regression may not be as severe.

Given Carlos Hyde's rushing yardage total, he should have closer to two touchdowns on the ground rather than five. As I noted earlier, the Browns have been really run-friendly close to the opponent's end zone, which has helped Hyde tremendously. Given his usage as a receiver and the touchdown regression that's coming, you could consider him a sell candidate.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

Player Rec Yds TD Should Have Difference
Calvin Ridley 264 6 1.58 4.42
AJ Green 297 5 1.78 3.22
Cooper Kupp 348 4 2.09 1.91
Chris Godwin 193 3 1.16 1.84
Mike Williams 204 3 1.22 1.78
Aldrick Robinson 42 2 0.25 1.75
Kenny Stills 224 3 1.34 1.66
Chris Conley 58 2 0.35 1.65
Kendrick Bourne 65 2 0.39 1.61
John Ross 79 2 0.47 1.53
Tavon Austin 81 2 0.49 1.51
Tyler Lockett 249 3 1.49 1.51
Will Fuller 263 3 1.58 1.42
Antonio Brown 272 3 1.63 1.37
Chris Hogan 109 2 0.65 1.35
Davante Adams 285 3 1.71 1.29
Ted Ginn 135 2 0.81 1.19
Stefon Diggs 311 3 1.86 1.14
Jakeem Grant 152 2 0.91 1.09
Robert Woods 323 3 1.94 1.06
Albert Wilson 161 2 0.97 1.03
Phillip Dorsett 165 2 0.99 1.01
Chester Rogers 134 0 0.80 -0.80
Adam Thielen 473 2 2.84 -0.84
Larry Fitzgerald 141 0 0.85 -0.85
Pierre Garcon 141 0 0.85 -0.85
Courtland Sutton 142 0 0.85 -0.85
Zay Jones 144 0 0.86 -0.86
Jarvis Landry 312 1 1.87 -0.87
Corey Davis 312 1 1.87 -0.87
Emmanuel Sanders 314 1 1.88 -0.88
Christian Kirk 149 0 0.89 -0.89
Terrelle Pryor 158 0 0.95 -0.95
Rashard Higgins 178 0 1.07 -1.07
Cole Beasley 185 0 1.11 -1.11
Juju Smith-Schuster 416 1 2.49 -1.49
Brandin Cooks 452 1 2.71 -1.71
Odell Beckham Jr 331 0 1.98 -1.98
Julio Jones 502 0 3.01 -3.01

I've already talked about Calvin Ridley, who's overexceeding in the touchdown column most at wide receiver. That's been at Julio Jones' expense, as Jones still hasn't found the end zone despite 502 receiving yards. Eventually, he'll get there. Eventually.

Brandin Cooks was the leader in "should have more touchdowns" last week, and he ended up scoring in the Rams' offensive outburst on Thursday night. He still should be scoring at a higher rate, though, given his performance thus far.