FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 12 Monday Night
Week 12 is just about the rearview mirror, but worry not because we still have a Monday Night Football game left to scratch that DFS itch. With a mere 42.0-point total between the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans, let's just say we won't be getting the same offensive fireworks we saw in last week's shootout thriller between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. Even so, FanDuel's single-game format can still spice things up for us in an AFC South matchup with plenty of playoff implications.
For those unfamiliar with the single-game format, scoring is identical to its full roster cousin, except lineups consist of five flex spots, and kickers (remember them?) are an option in place of defense/special teams. The one twist? One of the five roster spots is your designated "MVP," who receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points. Naturally, it's crucial that you choose your MVP carefully if you want to be at the top of the leaderboards when it's all said and done.
Let's run through some of tonight's top plays, starting with the best options to consider for your MVP slot.
MVP Candidates
DeAndre Hopkins ($16,500 on FanDuel): Averaging 9.6 targets per game with a 31.6% target market share, DeAndre Hopkins will be an easy and popular MVP choice in a game with few true standout options. Although the Titans remain a top-10 defense in passing yards allowed per game, they still rank just 26th in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and have allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing wideouts. The Texans haven't been chucking it as often as they were earlier in the season, limiting Hopkins to 7.8 targets per game over the last five, but that hasn't stopped him from putting up points in the end zone, scoring at least once in each contest across that span. For the season, he leads the league in targets inside the 10-yard line (13), and has scored double-digit FanDuel points in all 10 games.
Deshaun Watson ($17,000): As noted above, the Texans haven't been throwing as often lately, as DeShaun Watson hasn't attempted over 25 passes in five straight, and Houston now ranks just 29th in passing play percentage this year. Normally, we care more about efficiency than volume when it comes to quarterbacks, but that's an awfully low number of pass attempts, and Watson hasn't cleared 240 passing yards in any of those five games. Even worse, Watson hasn't been running as much, either, staying below 15 rushing yards in four of those last five. Still, despite all of the negatives, he still has a monster ceiling, and hit 30.92 FanDuel points against the Miami Dolphins just a few weeks ago. Watson's 19.6 FanDuel points per game leads the slate, and if the Titans can hold up their end of the bargain and keep this one close, hopefully it results in Watson needing to throw more than we've seen lately.
Marcus Mariota ($15,000): Of course, if this game is to stay close, we're going to need Marcus Mariota to perform, which is no sure thing, but he checks in as numberFire's third-highest projected player behind Watson and Hopkins. Mariota is slated to start after suffering a stinger in Week 11, but whether it's been injuries or ineffectiveness, he's shown a painful floor, scoring single-digit FanDuel points in five of nine games. He's extremely hard to trust -- and even more so in a matchup against a defense that has allowed the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks -- but we have to consider just about any starting quarterback on a single-game slate. Prior to suffering the stinger, he posted back-to-back scores above 20 FanDuel points and had a season-high score of 31.36 points in Week 4. Similar to Watson, Mariota hasn't consistently produced with his legs, but the potential remains every week, as he's exceeded 30 rushing yards four times with two rushing scores. With Hopkins and Watson almost certainly being the most popular MVP picks, if you're willing to stomach the risks, Mariota is worth considering as a contrarian choice.
Value Plays
Dion Lewis ($10,000): Dion Lewis turned out to be a spectacular bust in Week 11 against the Indianapolis Colts (3.7 FanDuel points), but the same could be said for the entire Tennessee offense in the blowout loss, so we probably shouldn't read too much into it. Prior to that debacle, Lewis had averaged 17.3 carries and 4.0 targets per game, and as long as this one stays competitive, he should flirt with around 20 touches tonight. This is a bit of a daunting spot against a rushing defense that ranks third by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, but the volume alone keeps Lewis in play, and this is an affordable price tag for a lead back.
Jonnu Smith ($9,000) and Tajae Sharpe ($8,000): At a reasonable salary, Corey Davis ($11,500) and his 29.3% target market share is your best bet in the Titans' passing game, but you'll probably have to dip lower if you're planning to squeeze both Hopkins and Watson in the same lineup. As one of the few bright spots in Week 11's loss, Jonnu Smith is coming off a season-high eight targets, and arguably draws the best defensive matchup in the Titans' offense. The floor is nothing to write home about, though, as Smith hadn't seen over three targets in a game before last week, and still hasn't cleared 50 yards this season. Tajae Sharpe only has one game over 50 receiving yards himself, but he's seen at least 77% of the snaps in the last five games, and has a workable 17.5% target market share over that stretch, good for second-best on the team.
Demaryius Thomas ($8,500): Keke Coutee ($11,000) returned from injury in Week 11 and did not disappoint against Washington, seeing a team-best nine targets for an impressive 37.5% target market share. While we certainly shouldn't expect him garner more targets than Hopkins again, that kind of usage puts him firmly in play tonight. Meanwhile, Demaryius Thomas was once again a forgotten man on offense, seeing a mere one target last week, and just four total in his two games with Houston. That's hardly a ringing endorsement, but coach Bill O'Brien has indicated he wants Thomas involved more, and it stands to reason that the Texans didn't trade for the wideout to simply be a decoy. It requires a leap of faith in this run-heavy offense, but the price and matchup is right to take a shot on this slate.
Kenyatta Storin is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Kenyatta Storin also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username yatters. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
