Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 14

How good of a play is Jaylen Samuels this week in fantasy football?

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 14's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team Pass Att Rush Att Ratio +/- Ratio RZ Plays RZ Ratio GL Plays GL Ratio
ARI 353 270 1.31 1.12 67 1.23 13 0.86
ATL 468 249 1.88 2.03 99 1.61 32 1.46
BAL 461 376 1.23 1.14 123 0.92 27 0.69
BUF 369 349 1.06 0.97 85 0.73 19 0.73
CAR 403 306 1.32 1.34 108 0.93 32 0.68
CHI 399 339 1.18 1.21 106 1.30 29 0.93
CIN 440 244 1.80 1.67 86 1.87 24 1.40
CLE 440 320 1.38 1.36 87 1.12 28 0.56
DAL 365 335 1.09 1.24 110 1.20 29 0.81
DEN 413 297 1.39 1.49 95 1.26 23 0.92
DET 446 286 1.56 1.55 118 1.36 20 0.67
GB 471 256 1.84 1.78 94 1.94 18 2.00
HOU 365 378 0.97 1.10 120 1.45 36 1.77
IND 494 294 1.68 1.88 133 1.71 37 1.85
JAX 424 322 1.32 1.15 86 1.21 19 0.73
KC 429 297 1.44 1.71 133 1.51 40 0.74
LAC 384 304 1.26 1.45 105 1.14 22 1.00
LAR 416 345 1.21 1.39 165 0.99 34 0.55
MIA 358 287 1.25 1.21 64 1.00 8 3.00
MIN 491 253 1.94 1.75 94 2.03 20 1.86
NE 437 352 1.24 1.43 136 0.97 40 0.48
NO 391 363 1.08 1.36 166 0.98 55 0.67
NYG 438 250 1.75 1.50 120 1.45 30 1.00
NYJ 398 307 1.30 1.24 73 1.21 10 1.00
OAK 426 287 1.48 1.31 107 1.14 26 0.73
PHI 452 298 1.52 1.56 129 1.08 24 0.85
PIT 522 263 1.98 1.97 106 1.59 33 0.65
SEA 326 380 0.86 0.87 105 1.06 22 0.83
SF 399 330 1.21 1.22 125 1.02 32 0.68
TB 479 301 1.59 1.42 129 1.35 31 1.07
TEN 338 334 1.01 1.17 105 1.02 25 0.56
WAS 403 313 1.29 1.44 93 0.90 21 0.40

The Pittsburgh Steelers currently own the highest pass-to-rush ratio in football, throwing the ball nearly two times for every rush. It's no surprise, then, that they've run the ball just 263 times this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. With James Conner sidelined for Week 14, we'll more than likely see somewhat of a split backfield between Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley for Pittsburgh. But considering Pittsburgh's splits, it's easy to side with Samuels, who entered the league as sort of a hybrid player, having played all over the place in college. He's even tight end-eligible in your Yahoo! fantasy league. The real issue is that Ridley could steal goal-line work, capping Samuels' upside.

Over the last two weeks, we've seen Buffalo's neutral script pass-to-rush attempt ratio jump by 0.07. That may not seem significant, but heading into Week 12, they were sitting at 0.90, and over the team's last two games, it's been 1.16. Keep in mind, those are the two games where we've seen Josh Allen under center. Maybe they're growing confident in his abilities, or at least allowing him to do more and learn. That's not a bad thing at all for fantasy football.

Since Lamar Jackson took over as starter for Baltimore, they've been (predictably) more run-heavy. After Week 10, they had a 1.69 (nice) ratio overall, and a 1.71 pass-to-rush attempt ratio when the game was within six points. Over Jackson's three starts, those numbers are 0.48 and 0.57, respectively. You can see it in the chart -- those two numbers are insanely low. Only the Seahawks and Texans have an overall pass-to-rush ratio south of 1.00 this year, so Baltimore is way under the norm with Lamar Jackson. And that's hurt all pass-catchers on the team in fantasy as a result.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team Adj NEP Adj Pass NEP Adj Rush NEP Adj D NEP Adj D Pass NEP Adj D Rush NEP
ARI -84.00 -63.36 -16.25 48.78 39.76 18.53
ATL 109.27 105.83 -10.55 147.38 105.02 42.35
BAL 59.55 22.84 20.14 -19.05 -3.94 -12.96
BUF -52.88 -68.99 15.55 17.64 8.77 0.80
CAR 102.36 55.36 45.17 105.79 92.28 12.34
CHI 90.21 47.59 19.96 1.65 22.72 -24.98
CIN 56.03 52.47 -0.85 105.09 76.30 41.53
CLE 1.35 -4.26 1.63 5.37 3.86 14.24
DAL 37.67 10.59 37.76 25.54 36.50 -19.33
DEN 74.02 54.49 30.52 13.01 20.48 9.55
DET 56.62 42.24 9.12 122.30 94.25 25.69
GB 104.57 69.11 38.85 111.39 70.07 34.62
HOU 86.86 74.08 11.43 39.89 49.00 -20.38
IND 109.59 91.90 12.87 91.24 83.75 -1.82
JAX -2.12 11.00 1.19 30.95 18.03 2.98
KC 211.63 180.27 28.25 119.23 54.43 44.13
LAC 193.30 139.15 53.22 53.13 25.31 28.82
LAR 158.90 145.30 27.70 48.43 25.42 18.40
MIA 14.98 18.04 -1.65 137.74 87.95 35.93
MIN 36.34 70.21 -27.53 7.65 30.38 -20.40
NE 161.47 121.02 35.78 57.47 51.41 14.62
NO 204.96 159.84 25.73 64.41 54.53 -2.13
NYG 49.02 46.50 11.27 91.49 69.61 21.54
NYJ -51.23 -40.90 3.64 71.51 54.43 25.43
OAK 24.47 45.46 -9.34 136.00 100.62 47.84
PHI 66.92 46.47 14.07 72.90 50.76 26.74
PIT 140.00 124.87 16.81 49.90 36.40 8.36
SEA 111.18 87.82 30.30 59.61 50.21 -6.02
SF -0.68 4.52 -13.12 106.68 85.40 10.07
TB 92.22 96.93 -4.17 119.69 98.24 24.07
TEN 49.77 46.72 7.87 82.85 71.69 24.36
WAS 13.72 -12.27 29.76 61.19 46.03 15.39

As usual, there's not a lot of change within the expected points chart this week. One swap was Baltimore becoming the league's best secondary, and they actually rank as the only team with a negative schedule-adjusted Net Expected Points total within the pass defense category. They'll be in Kansas City this week against numberFire's top-rated passing offense, so it'll make for an awesome matchup.

Here's your "Which secondaries should I target with my fantasy quarterback?" update: Look to expose the Atlanta, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and (a new one) Carolina secondaries.

Team Pass Defense Splits

The chart below displays the raw number of yards and the percentage of yards allowed by pass defense to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

Arizona hasn't given up a ton of yards through the air this year, and that includes to wide receivers. They rank ninth-best in yards allowed to the position. But (and this is the reason for the chart), a hefty 64.3% of their passing yards allowed have gone to wideouts. That's 11th-highest in the league. Detroit wide receivers are still in play this week given they're just two-point favorites, so the game script should be fairly neutral.

Looking at the chart, it's obvious that New Orleans struggles against wide receivers. That gives the Buccaneers a plus matchup in Week 14, as no group of wide receivers has produced more receiving yards than Tampa Bay's. And it's not close, either -- they have nearly 400 more yards receiving than the second-place Los Angeles Rams. Considering this game is being played in Tampa Bay this week, you can confidently start Jameis Winston and his wideouts.

Larry Fitzgerald is kind of an interesting fantasy option this week. He hasn't been super reliable with just two games of over 50 yards this season, but he's going up against Detroit, a team that's allowed the second-most yards to slot receivers this year, per Pro Football Focus. And with Christian Kirk now on IR, more targets could go Fitz's way.

You've got to start Adam Thielen this week, but his matchup against Seattle isn't exactly a fun one. They've only allowed one slot touchdown this year while giving up the second-fewest yards to slot receivers. And as you can see in the chart, they're pretty average against wide receivers in general while surrendering a high percentage of yards to opposing running backs. Again, you can't bench Thielen, but there's some worry that he plays below his norm.

The Raiders have given up the second-most receiving yards to tight ends this year, but they've allowed a staggering 30.0% of their passing yards to go to the position. That's the highest rate in football. With the Steelers having a pass-friendly approach this year, this bodes well for Vance McDonald.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

I mentioned the Steelers' running back situation at the top, and a reason you should be interested in said situation is because Oakland's been really bad against the run this year. According to numberFire's expected points model, only two teams have allowed a higher Success Rate (the percentage of positive expected point plays) to running backs this season. So it's a great matchup for both Samuels and Ridley.

Justin Jackson only played about 22% of Los Angeles' snaps on Sunday, but he was easily the most effective back on the team. Austin Ekeler had just 21 yards on 13 carries, while Jackson went for 63 on 8. We should probably expect an uptick in snaps this week, and considering the Chargers are 14-point favorites, they'll likely see a nice positive game script. That means more potential volume for Jackson against a team that ranks 31st in Success Rate against running backs this year.

The Patriots shouldn't have much trouble running on the Dolphins this week. They've been below-average against the run all over the field this year, all while surrendering top-10 numbers to the position in fantasy. Start James White and Sony Michel confidently.

Like Mahomes versus the Baltimore secondary, we've got another best-versus-best type matchup with Todd Gurley going up against the Bears. Success Rate has Chicago as the top-ranked defense, and on a per-rush basis, only three teams have been more efficient at stopping the run. You can't leave Gurley on your bench, of course, but like Adam Thielen above, he's someone who you may need to downgrade slightly this week. And by downgrade, I mean "he's not the obvious top running back play."

Running Back Usage

PlayerAttRush %TargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ AttRZ TargetsGL Att
Todd Gurley23367.54%6114.66%85.4%94.2%611620
Saquon Barkley19578.00%9120.78%84%79.2%381313
Christian McCaffrey16353.27%9222.83%97.2%100%321311
Alvin Kamara16144.35%8421.48%66.5%67.3%422314
James Conner20176.43%6813.03%81.1%72.1%34717
Ezekiel Elliott24071.64%6818.63%89.2%88.7%31148
Melvin Gordon15350.33%6015.63%64.5%N/A20133
James White7621.59%10323.57%58.3%44.6%16186
Tarik Cohen7421.83%7719.30%46.2%51.2%10111
Phillip Lindsay15451.85%327.75%44.2%42.4%2056
David Johnson20575.93%5114.45%81.9%83.9%2377
Joe Mixon15463.11%429.55%62.4%57.4%1967
T.J. Yeldon10031.06%7417.45%59.4%60.3%1252
Adrian Peterson19261.34%204.96%47.9%35.6%2728
Kenyan Drake9633.45%5916.48%57.9%54.5%1161
Aaron Jones11243.75%326.79%49.7%51.3%1834
Tevin Coleman12851.41%408.55%57.5%54.7%1596
Nick Chubb13140.94%163.64%30.9%47.4%1747
Matt Breida13240.00%256.27%38.6%13.2%2146
Lamar Miller17646.56%277.40%59.6%53.9%2526
Austin Ekeler8327.30%4712.24%39.6%77.8%1343
Kerryon Johnson11841.26%398.74%42.8%N/A1762
Isaiah Crowell14145.93%276.78%43.4%63.8%1613
Dion Lewis13540.42%5115.09%65.5%58.8%2063
Nyheim Hines7324.83%6012.15%47.6%60.5%1872
Jalen Richard3612.54%6715.73%39.2%42.1%441
Chris Carson15741.32%175.21%42.2%58.6%2238
Jordan Howard17852.51%205.01%58%41.5%25311
Marlon Mack11739.80%183.64%49.1%36.8%2027
Latavius Murray11143.87%244.89%50.5%19.7%1323
Peyton Barber16956.15%214.38%55%61.5%27510
LeSean McCoy14340.97%3910.57%57.7%75%1814
Alex Collins11430.32%214.56%37.8%N/A2156
Duke Johnson288.75%4710.68%40.9%35.1%360
Sony Michel14440.91%112.52%28.6%40.5%30111
Mark Ingram9726.72%184.60%46%40.4%16011
Mike Davis9023.68%298.90%38.5%17.2%1513
Derrick Henry12838.32%154.44%35.8%41.2%2217
Javorius Allen4110.90%439.33%34.1%N/A1166
Theo Riddick196.64%6213.90%41.8%52.8%7100
Leonard Fournette9027.95%143.30%35.7%N/A1427
Frank Gore13948.43%154.19%42.1%36.4%1331
Corey Clement6722.48%255.53%31.4%30.7%1621
Ito Smith7028.11%255.34%31.2%45.3%1824
Giovani Bernard4418.03%378.41%42.3%41.2%612
Dalvin Cook7429.25%326.52%55.8%77%911
Doug Martin10536.59%194.46%28.4%52.6%1817
Marshawn Lynch9031.36%204.69%50.4%N/A1553
Wendell Smallwood6321.14%255.53%31.2%2.7%1051
Royce Freeman9632.32%71.69%27.1%35.6%1603
LeGarrette Blount11339.51%71.57%26.1%41.7%23010
Alfred Blue12833.86%164.38%41.7%47.4%1123
Chris Thompson299.27%399.68%28.5%64.4%342
Rashaad Penny7319.21%123.68%20.7%20.7%911
Devontae Booker268.75%348.23%28.8%22%230
Chris Ivory8925.50%195.15%30.6%16.7%802
Spencer Ware3612.12%184.20%26.2%69%1125

Let's talk about this Chiefs backfield. Without Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware played 69% of the team's snaps and handled about 47% of the team's rushes. The snap rate wasn't horrendous, but KC was giving Hunt a 68% rushing share. That's a little worrisome, especially with the signing of Charcandrick West this week. Ware is still the guy you want in the backfield, but he's also rushed to a sub-30% Success Rate this year, which is far below average. Let's not pretend he's got this role locked up.

Chris Thompson returned in Week 14, and in a negative game script, he played over 64% of the team's snaps. He's not someone you can really trust in fantasy, but he's going to hurt Adrian Peterson's value -- Peterson saw his lowest snap rate since Week 5 on Monday night. With Mark Sanchez under center and an offensive line that's got issues, it's a backfield -- and offense, really -- that you should be avoiding.

Dalvin Cook has carried the ball either 9 or 10 times in his four games since returning from injury, but he's yet to find the end zone on the ground. Part of that is because he's had just one goal-line rush all season long. It doesn't help that Minnesota is the third-most pass-heavy team within their opponent's five-yard line this year, but it's making Cook tough to trust in non-PPR formats. In PPR leagues, he's fine enough, having seen 20 targets over the last four games. And this week, he'll face Seattle, a team that's seen 23.3% of their receiving yards allowed go to running backs. That's the second-highest rate in the league.

For whatever reason, the Packers decided that they wanted a split backfield against in Week 13. After seeing snap rates of at least 74% from Weeks 10 to 12, Aaron Jones played 51.3% of Green Bay's snaps this past Sunday, carrying the ball just 11 times. Jamaal Williams had seven carries, when he had totaled five attempts across the three games prior to Sunday. Why did this happen? Only Mike McCarthy knows. Fortunately, a coaching change could make Jones -- the objectively better runner between the two -- super relevant once again.

Wide Receiver Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Adam Thielen13627.70%97%100%1765
Davante Adams12726.96%94%94.7%2562
Antonio Brown13525.86%94.9%98.5%1662
Tyreek Hill10023.31%88.4%88.7%1264
Michael Thomas10526.85%88%98.1%21116
DeAndre Hopkins11431.23%99.3%98.7%17138
Julio Jones13328.42%81.3%77.4%953
Odell Beckham12428.31%93.7%91.7%2085
JuJu Smith-Schuster11922.80%84.2%88.2%2386
Keenan Allen11329.43%83.4%92.1%1263
Mike Evans10521.92%83.9%87.7%1042
Stefon Diggs12024.44%81.9%77%1364
Robert Woods9923.80%96.5%95.7%1083
Tyler Boyd9722.05%88.9%97.1%821
Emmanuel Sanders9823.73%84.3%67.8%1153
Brandin Cooks9021.63%90%95.7%1362
Tyler Lockett5617.18%84.2%69%630
Kenny Golladay9220.63%91.7%97.2%1363
T.Y. Hilton8617.41%78.2%86.8%1497
Calvin Ridley7115.17%60.5%64.2%732
Golden Tate9621.24%69.6%48%1072
Corey Davis9126.92%89.3%95.6%1484
Jarvis Landry12027.27%88.2%80.7%1653
A.J. Green7717.50%60.9%25%1465
DeSean Jackson7014.61%49.6%N/A510
Chris Godwin6713.99%58.9%80%1293
Amari Cooper71N/A77.7%78.9%1172
Adam Humphries7315.24%68.1%63.1%943
Sterling Shepard7617.35%92.4%80.6%1554
Cooper Kupp5613.46%72%N/A1270
Dede Westbrook7116.75%74.8%87.9%930
Larry Fitzgerald7721.81%90.8%96.8%1154
Demaryius Thomas7019.18%75.9%78.9%1143
Julian Edelman6915.79%87.9%89.2%1483
D.J. Moore5613.90%60.8%94.3%210
John Brown7917.14%65.2%53.1%1152
Taylor Gabriel7619.05%79.8%91.5%653
Christian Kirk6819.26%79.1%85.5%520
Allen Robinson7117.79%75.6%85.4%942
Mohamed Sanu6213.25%77.7%83%422
Josh Gordon6013.73%68.6%64.9%742
Michael Crabtree8919.31%67.6%43.2%941
Devin Funchess7117.62%73.5%45.7%1174
Mike Williams4210.94%61.9%54%851
Alshon Jeffery6514.38%80.3%88%1142
Marvin Jones6213.90%72.8%N/A1161
Sammy Watkins5512.82%58.8%N/A1040
Tyrell Williams4411.46%74%79.4%311
Nelson Agholor7917.48%89.3%86.7%942
Zay Jones6918.70%86.7%91.7%1242
Willie Snead8017.35%67.1%81.5%500
Donte Moncrief7016.51%78.3%77.6%643
Anthony Miller5012.53%64.1%69.5%1052
Cole Beasley6417.53%65.3%66.2%831
Will Fuller4512.33%77%N/A532
Danny Amendola6217.32%75.4%N/A110
Courtland Sutton5914.29%72.3%69.5%421
Jordy Nelson5111.97%78%90.8%641
Antonio Callaway6214.09%69.2%71.9%632

In a plus matchup, Courtland Sutton caught more than three passes in a game this season. He found the end zone against Cincinnati, too, which was a big plus, and his seven Week 13 targets were a season (and career) high. The Broncos have a pretty favorable schedule for the passing offense through Week 16, so Sutton could work as a flex option in 12-plus team formats.

Since Golden Tate joined the Eagles, Alshon Jeffery has a 14.5% target share in the Philly offense. In Jeffery's five other games prior -- the other five he's played this year -- his target share was 23.4%. This more than likely isn't a simple coincidence: Jeffery's value has dipped dramatically with the extra piece in the offense. You can't really trust him right now in your fantasy lineup.

At the beginning of the season, I touted Tyler Lockett as someone to buy in fantasy football. So don't think I'm hating when I say this: Those of you who have Tyler Lockett in fantasy football are lucky as hell.

Lockett's now scored in all but three games this year, giving him a touchdown on every 4.9 receptions. The league average at wide receiver this year is a touchdown on every 11.6 receptions. He's seen more than five targets just once since Doug Baldwin returned to the lineup. As reliable as he appears to be -- he just keeps finding the end zone -- he's kind of not.

Tight End Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Travis Kelce11426.57%95.3%97.2%20105
Zach Ertz12126.77%93.7%78.7%1973
Eric Ebron8817.81%57.9%76.3%1953
George Kittle9323.31%85.5%88.2%1274
Jared Cook7818.31%73.6%72.4%1293
Austin Hooper7315.60%80.3%71.7%1294
O.J. Howard4810.02%60.8%N/A742
Jordan Reed8320.60%64.4%68.9%751
Trey Burton5413.53%81.3%81.7%1173
Jimmy Graham7215.29%75.2%71.1%844
David Njoku6915.68%80.1%80.7%431
Kyle Rudolph5912.02%88.1%98.4%1163
Vance McDonald5610.73%55.9%64.7%521
Rob Gronkowski5412.36%76.1%98.6%520
Chris Herndon4010.05%49.1%71%400
Greg Olsen389.43%68.8%18.6%633
C.J. Uzomah5111.59%83.3%98.5%432
Jesse James356.70%55.3%48.5%521
Mark Andrews378.03%34.7%39.5%631
Ben Watson369.21%49.4%38.5%964
Jeff Heuerman4811.62%76.9%N/A1272
Cameron Brate367.52%41.4%67.7%932
Jonnu Smith319.17%79%70.6%552
Vernon Davis297.20%47%51.1%100
Evan Engram337.53%52.3%N/A511
Ricky Seals-Jones5615.86%63.1%35.5%321
Dallas Goedert316.86%44.1%52%511
Gerald Everett307.21%26.1%34.8%851

Ricky Seals-Jones wasn't doing a whole lot with his high target share earlier in the season, but that share has taken a hit of late, as he's seen just eight targets over his last three games. He's not playing as much, and he can safely be dropped in the deeper leagues where he's still rostered.

C.J. Uzomah has 19 targets over his last two games, but he's had fewer than 40 yards receiving in both contests. According to Pro Football Focus, no tight end has run more routes than Uzomah over the last two weeks. So his peripherals are there to have a big outing, but the situation continues to not be ideal given the backup quarterback who's under center.

Without O.J. Howard over the last two weeks, Cameron Brate has 10 targets, accounting for 14.7% of the Bucs' pass attempts. That's totally average, but he's top-six in the league in routes run, which means he's at least providing the potential for more volume. It's not time to panic by any means, especially at the horrendous tight end position.

Deep Ball Passing

Player15+ Yd Att15+ Yd Att %15+ Comp %15+ % of Tot Yds15+ Yd TD %
Josh Allen5729.84%28.07%39.74%60.00%
Ryan Fitzpatrick6526.42%53.85%44.13%35.29%
Mitchell Trubisky7824.30%37.18%36.90%30.00%
Baker Mayfield8423.73%46.43%37.29%27.78%
Patrick Mahomes9622.38%50.00%36.91%24.39%
Jameis Winston5021.55%44.00%27.15%25.00%
Aaron Rodgers9720.95%43.30%39.04%33.33%
Jared Goff8620.77%51.16%33.32%25.93%
Josh Rosen5520.15%41.82%36.65%40.00%
Russell Wilson6519.94%50.77%38.18%44.83%
Sam Darnold5719.72%38.60%32.06%45.45%
Matt Ryan8718.91%44.83%29.39%24.00%
Marcus Mariota5118.61%49.02%30.86%18.18%
Alex Smith6118.60%32.79%25.32%20.00%
Joe Flacco7018.47%34.29%25.72%16.67%
Philip Rivers6918.16%56.52%33.18%32.14%
Eli Manning7918.12%46.84%31.60%20.00%
Tom Brady7617.51%43.42%27.77%30.00%
Deshaun Watson6217.03%46.77%26.39%23.81%
Cam Newton6817.00%38.24%19.91%20.83%
Andy Dalton6216.99%43.55%27.32%28.57%
Ryan Tannehill3016.85%30.00%24.45%46.15%
Drew Brees6416.67%59.38%33.20%30.00%
Josh McCown1816.51%22.22%17.44%0.00%
Ben Roethlisberger8516.44%37.65%28.85%42.31%
Carson Wentz6016.26%40.00%25.83%16.67%
Brock Osweiler2815.73%35.71%22.21%16.67%
Andrew Luck7515.34%44.00%26.67%21.88%
Case Keenum6315.33%46.03%31.53%35.71%
Blake Bortles5615.18%37.50%24.49%30.77%
Kirk Cousins6914.05%43.48%23.30%39.13%
Dak Prescott5114.01%41.18%25.27%28.57%
Matthew Stafford6013.67%46.67%26.73%27.78%
Derek Carr5613.27%41.07%21.75%25.00%
Lamar Jackson1012.99%50.00%29.26%50.00%
Nick Mullens149.93%57.14%20.05%14.29%

As I noted earlier, Baltimore's been incredible run-heavy with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. They've also been very conservative when he's dropped back to pass. Just 13% of his throws are traveling 15 or more air yards, which is a higher rate than only Nick Mullens. This is just another reason Baltimore pass-catchers are ruined in fantasy football with Jackson under center, especially John Brown, who's a deep-ball specialist.

Josh Allen continues to set the pace in deep-ball rate, and his percentage of passes going deep increased pretty dramatically in Week 13, as he tossed it 15-plus air yards on 14 of his 33 attempts (42.2%). His ability in real football will keep getting questioned, but in fantasy, he's pretty damn fun.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

PlayerRush YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceRec YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceTotal Difference
Todd Gurley1175157.867.1447442.071.939.06
Alvin Kamara742114.976.0355542.431.577.61
Kareem Hunt82475.521.4837871.655.356.83
Melvin Gordon80295.373.6345341.982.025.65
James White32942.201.8065962.883.124.92
James Conner909126.085.9246712.04-1.044.87
Alex Collins41172.754.2510510.460.544.79
Nick Chubb69474.642.3613320.581.423.77
Kenyan Drake43942.941.0631141.362.643.70
Javorius Allen11030.742.2619620.861.143.41
Saquon Barkley95486.391.6160242.631.372.98
Aaron Jones64274.302.7017810.780.222.92
Kapri Bibbs10130.682.3210210.450.552.88
James Develin630.042.964100.18-0.182.78
LeGarrette Blount33252.222.785400.24-0.242.54
Tevin Coleman51423.44-1.4427151.193.812.37
Christian McCaffrey86355.78-0.7866362.903.102.32
Leonard Fournette31442.101.9013410.590.412.31
Royce Freeman39752.662.342800.12-0.122.22
Ito Smith22141.482.5213300.58-0.581.94
Phillip Lindsay93786.271.7318910.830.171.90
Doug Martin44522.98-0.9810600.46-0.46-1.44
Marcus Murphy20501.37-1.371800.08-0.08-1.45
Jordan Wilkins31812.13-1.137400.32-0.32-1.45
Jacquizz Rodgers8500.57-0.5720800.91-0.91-1.48
Gus Edwards37912.54-1.54700.03-0.03-1.57
Chris Ivory29811.99-0.9915900.70-0.70-1.69
Bilal Powell34302.30-2.3011010.480.52-1.78
Dalvin Cook31202.09-2.0919410.850.15-1.94
Theo Riddick7400.50-0.5033801.48-1.48-1.97
LeSean McCoy47823.20-1.2021000.92-0.92-2.12
Alfred Blue44612.99-1.9910700.47-0.47-2.45
Dion Lewis46413.11-2.1130911.35-0.35-2.46
Lamar Miller87635.86-2.8614410.630.37-2.49
Jalen Richard21401.43-1.4347802.09-2.09-3.52
Frank Gore61604.12-4.1210010.440.56-3.56

We've got a similar story with the running back touchdown regression chart this week. One player who's intriguing is Lamar Miller, who's now scored just three times via the rush despite his 876 yards on the ground. He doesn't have a ton of goal-line attempts (6), but that number should almost be double what it is given his yardage accumulation. The Texans have two strong matchups upcoming for him, so perhaps we see a little positive regression.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

PlayerRec YdsTDShould HaveDifference
Antonio Brown1028126.165.84
Tyler Lockett71394.284.72
Davante Adams1115116.694.31
Tyreek Hill1119116.714.29
Mike Williams47172.824.18
Calvin Ridley64783.884.12
Jaron Brown15050.904.10
John Ross18951.133.87
Anthony Miller39962.393.61
Chris Conley24851.493.51
Aldrick Robinson18741.122.88
Kenny Stills36952.212.79
Cooper Kupp56663.392.61
David Moore41352.482.52
Curtis Samuel28441.702.30
Dante Pettis31441.882.12
Adam Thielen116696.992.01
Marquise Goodwin33942.031.97
Larry Fitzgerald50853.051.95
Keelan Cole39112.34-1.34
Quincy Enunwa42712.56-1.56
Martavis Bryant26601.60-1.60
D.J. Moore60923.65-1.65
Mike Evans112156.72-1.72
Maurice Harris29101.75-1.75
Danny Amendola46912.81-1.81
Willie Snead50713.04-2.04
Nelson Agholor52313.14-2.14
Jarvis Landry73324.40-2.40
JuJu Smith-Schuster110446.62-2.62
Brandin Cooks102636.15-3.15
Julio Jones132337.93-4.93

Brandin Cooks has found the end zone just three times on over 1,000 yards receiving. And you can't say it's just because he's a deep-ball player who's not utilized in the red zone. He has 13 red-zone targets this year, ranking 14th among wideouts, and his six targets from within the 10 have him tied in the top-15 as well. Hopefully he gets luckier for fantasy managers in the playoffs.