Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 15

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 15's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team Pass Att Rush Att Ratio Neutral Ratio RZ Plays RZ Ratio GL Plays GL Ratio
ARI 394 291 1.35 1.16 70 1.26 14 1.00
ATL 510 273 1.87 1.96 106 1.72 32 1.46
BAL 487 415 1.17 1.14 136 0.86 29 0.61
BUF 406 380 1.07 1.04 97 0.70 19 0.73
CAR 446 331 1.35 1.41 125 0.89 40 0.67
CHI 429 374 1.15 1.22 116 1.42 31 1.07
CIN 467 276 1.69 1.66 95 1.64 28 1.15
CLE 463 341 1.36 1.36 90 1.05 30 0.50
DAL 419 371 1.13 1.28 121 1.12 32 0.78
DEN 455 324 1.40 1.49 104 1.31 28 1.15
DET 469 317 1.48 1.53 120 1.31 21 0.62
GB 503 281 1.79 1.80 96 1.91 18 2.00
HOU 403 403 1.00 1.11 131 1.47 40 1.67
IND 535 317 1.69 1.84 137 1.69 38 1.71
JAX 467 342 1.37 1.12 99 1.15 25 0.56
KC 482 324 1.49 1.76 149 1.66 42 0.75
LAC 413 329 1.26 1.36 113 1.22 24 1.00
LAR 461 358 1.29 1.48 168 1.00 34 0.55
MIA 377 308 1.22 1.20 68 1.00 8 3.00
MIN 524 274 1.91 1.68 101 2.06 24 1.67
NE 480 382 1.26 1.44 156 1.00 47 0.62
NO 422 393 1.07 1.33 182 0.96 60 0.71
NYG 465 284 1.64 1.52 132 1.49 36 1.12
NYJ 423 335 1.26 1.24 86 1.10 17 0.70
OAK 460 312 1.47 1.35 124 1.07 31 0.63
PHI 484 312 1.55 1.58 137 1.11 27 0.93
PIT 560 282 1.99 1.99 121 1.69 38 0.73
SEA 346 422 0.82 0.82 118 1.00 25 0.79
SF 432 360 1.20 1.20 130 1.03 34 0.79
TB 517 324 1.60 1.47 137 1.40 33 1.06
TEN 362 366 0.99 1.14 119 0.92 31 0.48
WAS 433 335 1.29 1.42 97 0.94 21 0.40

After a crazy Thursday night performance from Derrick Henry, the Titans now have a pass-to-rush attempt ratio of 0.99, joining the Seahawks as the only team with a rate lower than 1.00. But they haven't been the most run-heavy teams of late. No, no. That's the Ravens, who've seen their overall season-long ratio drop from 1.69 (nice) to 1.17 since Lamar Jackson took over.

Miami continues to trail the rest of the league by a wide margin in goal-line plays run. They've only run eight plays within their opponent's five-yard line, which is six fewer than any other team. And it's also 52 (!!!) plays fewer than the league-leading New Orleans Saints. It's honestly amazing that Kenyan Drake has four rushing touchdowns this season.

The Dolphins and Cardinals are currently pacing towards 887 and 886 total plays run offensively this year (this includes sacks, not just attempts). No team has run fewer than 890 plays in a season since the 2005 San Francisco 49ers. And fun fact: the offensive coordinator of that 49ers team was Mike McCarthy.

The Steelers continue to be the most pass-heavy team in football, throwing it nearly two times for every rush. Their opponent this week, New England, hasn't been nearly as pass-happy, but in neutral game scripts, they rank in the top-half of the league in pass-to-rush ratio. Both teams also play at a top-11 pace (seconds per play) in the league. In other words, expect there to be scoring in the Steel City this weekend, as long as Ben Roethlisberger is suited up.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team Adj NEP Adj Pass NEP Adj Rush NEP Adj D NEP Adj D Pass NEP Adj D Rush NEP
ARI -100.67 -72.41 -21.85 50.72 37.72 21.90
ATL 108.58 111.22 -14.83 161.13 110.23 49.90
BAL 59.08 25.83 18.50 -17.55 -9.24 -14.99
BUF -48.46 -72.44 21.42 28.26 17.47 0.50
CAR 106.24 56.89 51.08 118.55 102.26 17.10
CHI 81.49 40.01 20.89 -39.83 -5.01 -30.90
CIN 53.18 50.35 -3.49 106.93 72.99 39.99
CLE 1.30 -6.68 4.97 -2.76 -2.83 15.12
DAL 46.62 26.71 30.91 29.39 47.16 -26.61
DEN 72.87 48.14 33.26 29.80 32.54 11.19
DET 54.22 41.33 8.14 123.31 101.77 21.59
GB 109.55 75.85 42.32 113.25 79.70 32.42
HOU 94.15 79.68 13.28 43.71 56.37 -23.69
IND 119.32 104.57 12.76 94.17 84.26 0.50
JAX -17.36 -0.96 -2.28 45.40 15.54 18.03
KC 236.80 201.83 29.70 124.50 59.93 47.22
LAC 180.06 126.68 56.41 40.82 16.88 30.20
LAR 167.31 148.37 27.39 47.39 27.12 16.41
MIA 38.71 27.82 9.55 146.96 101.16 27.96
MIN 29.09 64.61 -29.93 6.12 14.40 -10.26
NE 178.56 140.25 28.63 78.20 61.60 24.56
NO 203.06 161.23 24.13 68.84 51.03 1.28
NYG 59.50 48.46 15.67 85.11 64.54 23.51
NYJ -43.78 -33.42 5.12 85.27 61.73 32.02
OAK 34.06 61.07 -9.52 142.91 111.18 46.26
PHI 73.00 58.20 7.42 84.13 71.02 20.61
PIT 139.84 125.23 12.49 64.91 52.47 9.04
SEA 124.45 79.59 49.84 61.25 46.97 -4.14
SF 21.21 20.82 -10.92 112.87 89.85 9.34
TB 97.63 97.75 -3.08 116.03 93.71 25.24
TEN 59.51 43.16 21.42 72.89 65.74 21.34
WAS -3.09 -25.02 31.19 73.94 46.96 23.35

Baltimore continues to own the league's best secondary, but after a dominating performance on Sunday night, Chicago's not far behind. This makes two semi-reliable fantasy quarterbacks not-so-easy-starts this week with Jameis Winston traveling to Baltimore and Aaron Rodgers to Chicago.

Ben Roethlisberger missed a chunk of Week 14's game against Oakland, and the Raiders faced backup Joshua Dobbs as a result. Even still, when adjusted for strength of opponent, Oakland has numberFire's worst-ranked secondary. But one team that's coming for that crown is Carolina. They're ranked third-worst, and they'll face the Saints on Monday night. Maybe this is a "get right" type of game for Drew Brees?

There are a few teams separating themselves in the rush defense category: Chicago, Dallas, and Houston. Unsurprisingly, those three squads are also pretty good at stopping opposing running backs in fantasy football. If you were wondering if they were legit or not, though, wonder no more.

Team Pass Defense Splits

The chart below displays the raw number of yards and the percentage of yards allowed by pass defense to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

Amari Cooper has been fantasy football's top receiver since joining Dallas, and those rostering Cooper in Week 14 specifically are probably feeling pretty good right now. But there's some reason to be nervous about his matchup this week against Indianapolis. We don't think of the Colts as tough against wide receivers, but they've allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position this year,and just 50.24% of their passing yards allowed have gone to wideouts. That's easily the lowest rate in the league. Cooper should be in your lineup this week, but it seems logical to temper expectations a bit.

Ian Thomas stepped up in big way for Greg Olsen on Sunday, hauling in 9 of 11 targets for 77 yards. He ran the third-most routes at tight end across the league, per Pro Football Focus. His matchup against the Saints this week is an interesting one. Yes, New Orleans just allowed a multi-score game to Cameron Brate, but Brate also had just 12 yards receiving. New Orleans has given up a lot of receiving yards to wideouts this year, but they've been good at limiting tight ends -- only about 12% of the receiving yards they've allowed have gone to tight ends, the lowest rate in the league. Thomas is a fine streamer, but the matchup could be a lot better.

Speaking of Brate, he's someone you can look to use again here in Week 15. Baltimore is great at stopping opposing wideouts, but they've allowed the second-highest rate of receiving yards to tight ends in football. It's not a great matchup for the Bucs' passing attack, but Brate's someone you can still use.

Kenny Stills is coming off of back to back strong outings, but you shouldn't be playing him this week against Minnesota. The Vikings have given up the fourth-fewest yards to wideouts this year and, on the season, only four wide receivers have ranked better than 20th in weekly PPR scoring against them. One of those players is Davante Adams, who did it twice, and the other three are all on the Rams. That's it. Those are the only instances where a player has hit 15-plus PPR points. Stills is a very risky play.

Pittsburgh has seen just 10.6% of their receiving yards allowed go to running backs. That's the lowest rate in the league. They're also first in Success Rate (percentage of positive expected point plays) allowed to running backs through the air. And that doesn't bode well for the pass-catching James White, who's finished with fewer than nine PPR points in three of his last four games. If there's one thing that makes him a viable RB2, it's that this game could be high-scoring. But this matchup isn't that attractive -- it shapes up to be much more of a Julian Edelman game given how the Steelers have performed against slot receivers.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

The Chiefs now rank dead last in rush defense on a per-rush basis according to numberFire's expected points model, and no team has allowed a higher Success Rate to running backs. That means you've got to really keep an eye on the Chargers' running back situation this week, since it's a short week and both Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon are banged up. It could create a huge opportunity for Justin Jackson.

Doug Martin makes for an interesting play in Week 15 as well. Cincinnati is numberFire's second-least efficient rush defense, and they've allowed more points to the position than any other squad in the NFL. Martin has double-digit carries in seven straight games, and he's dominated goal-line looks for Oakland since Marshawn Lynch's injury -- only Christian McCaffrey has more attempts from within the opponent's five-yard line since Week 8.

Hypothetically, this is the perfect spot for David Johnson. Atlanta owns a bottom-five rush defense, and they've been notoriously bad at allowing receiving yards to running backs. But, unfortunately, it may not matter given Arizona's offensive deficiencies. Despite an average of 19.3 carries and 4.5 targets per game over his last four contests, Johnson has ranked in the top-20 in weekly running back scoring (PPR) just once while maintaining a points per game rate of 12.2. You can play him, but it's tough to expect a lot from him.

Running Back Usage

PlayerAttRush %TargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ AttRZ TargetsGL Att
Todd Gurley24468.16%6814.75%86.3%98.4%621620
Saquon Barkley20973.59%9620.65%81.3%48.4%391314
Christian McCaffrey17954.08%9922.20%97.5%100%391314
Alvin Kamara17344.02%9021.33%66.3%64.1%442414
Ezekiel Elliott26872.24%8119.33%89%86.9%35159
James Conner20171.28%6812.14%75.7%N/A34717
Melvin Gordon15346.50%6014.53%59.7%N/A20133
James White8020.94%10722.29%56.7%40.2%18186
Kareem Hunt18155.86%357.26%64.2%N/A27911
Phillip Lindsay16851.85%398.57%46%64.9%2257
Tarik Cohen8322.19%8118.88%45.9%42.3%12111
David Johnson22075.60%6115.48%82.5%88.6%2487
Joe Mixon18065.22%4810.28%63.1%70.1%2369
Kenyan Drake10233.12%6015.92%57.4%50%1261
T.J. Yeldon10129.53%7516.06%56%18.3%1252
Aaron Jones12945.91%356.96%51%64.6%1834
Nick Chubb14442.23%224.75%32.8%63.5%1948
Adrian Peterson20260.30%214.85%46.6%30.6%2728
Lamar Miller19047.15%338.19%60.5%70.8%2727
Austin Ekeler9829.79%5212.59%41.6%68.4%1554
Tevin Coleman13850.55%418.04%56.6%46.5%1596
Matt Breida13236.67%255.79%35.5%N/A2146
Derrick Henry14539.62%154.14%36.1%40%28110
Dion Lewis14539.62%5615.47%65.4%63.3%2285
Isaiah Crowell14342.69%286.62%41.1%9.3%1613
Kerryon Johnson11837.22%398.32%39.8%N/A1762
Chris Carson17942.42%174.91%43.1%53%2639
Nyheim Hines7623.97%6512.15%47.2%41.8%1972
Jalen Richard4414.10%6814.78%40%49.3%741
Jordan Howard19752.67%214.90%57.7%54.9%25311
Marlon Mack13141.32%193.55%50.2%59.7%2128
Peyton Barber18356.48%234.45%54.3%45.7%29511
Mark Ingram11027.99%214.98%45.9%45.3%21112
Latavius Murray11441.61%244.58%48%13.8%1424
Sony Michel16442.93%112.29%29.9%41.5%36112
LeSean McCoy14538.16%409.85%53.3%11.8%1914
Alex Collins11427.47%214.31%37.8%N/A2156
Duke Johnson308.80%4710.15%40.6%34.6%360
Mike Davis9322.04%308.67%37.6%27.3%1713
Theo Riddick257.89%6614.07%41.8%41.7%7100
Frank Gore15149.03%164.24%42.6%50%1331
Dalvin Cook8731.75%397.44%58.6%84.5%1022
Leonard Fournette10430.41%173.64%41.8%77.5%19210
Javorius Allen419.88%438.83%31.6%N/A1166
Ito Smith8129.67%295.69%32.4%45.1%1824
Doug Martin12138.78%194.13%30.1%49.3%25111
Giovani Bernard4717.03%398.35%41.8%37.3%713
Alfred Blue13433.25%174.22%40.8%30.6%1324
Corey Clement6821.79%255.17%29.9%7.7%1621
LeGarrette Blount12539.43%102.13%26.5%31.7%23010
Wendell Smallwood6420.51%255.17%29.8%7.7%1151
Royce Freeman10231.48%81.76%25.8%12.2%1603
Spencer Ware5115.74%234.77%28.3%47.7%1225
Chris Thompson329.55%4410.16%29.4%40.3%342
Rashaad Penny8119.19%123.47%20.7%21.2%911
Devontae Booker268.02%367.91%28.3%23%240
Ty Montgomery399.40%367.39%27.5%26.8%631
Chris Ivory10126.58%204.93%31%35.5%902

Ito Smith saw his snap rate jump to 45.1% in Week 14, marking the second week in a row where he's hit a 45% snap share. He's now seen more attempts than Tevin Coleman over the past two weeks. We could be seeing a changing of the guard in Atlanta.

Dalvin Cook has now played five games since returning from injury. In his first four, he saw 55.9% of Minnesota's running back attempts. On Monday night, that number jumped to 81.3%. He's got a great matchup this week against a beatable Miami rush defense and, given his usage, he needs to be in your lineup.

Washington is a mess offensively, and it's hurting Adrian Peterson. Without that 90-yard run two weeks ago, we're looking at a starting back who (hypothetically) would have ranked outside the top-40 in weekly running back scoring across three consecutive weeks. As I mentioned in this week's 15 Transactions column, Peterson has averaged about 35 rushing yards in losses this year versus roughly 105 in wins. Considering Washington is heading in the wrong direction, he can safely be dropped.

Derrick Henry's huge night came on 17 carries, but he still was on the field for just 40% of Tennessee's snaps. It's hard to believe given the performance, but Dion Lewis played 14 more snaps than Henry did on Thursday night. Henry does have flex appeal this week against a Giants defense that easily ranks in the bottom half of the league against the run since losing Damon Harrison, but don't get carried away expectation-wise.

Wide Receiver Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Davante Adams13827.44%93.4%86.2%2672
Adam Thielen14327.29%97%96.6%1986
Tyreek Hill11423.65%87.2%75.6%1464
Michael Thomas11827.96%88.2%90.6%24127
Antonio Brown14225.36%95.2%98.3%1962
Julio Jones14428.24%81.9%88.7%1153
JuJu Smith-Schuster13123.39%84.4%86.7%27118
DeAndre Hopkins12430.77%99.3%100%21159
Keenan Allen12229.54%84.2%94.7%1574
Odell Beckham12426.67%86.5%N/A2085
Mike Evans11121.47%84.1%87.1%1042
Stefon Diggs12724.24%82.2%86.2%1364
Robert Woods11124.08%96.7%100%1083
Tyler Boyd10322.06%89.4%95.5%821
Brandin Cooks9721.04%90.6%98.4%1462
Emmanuel Sanders9821.54%84.3%N/A1153
T.Y. Hilton9818.32%78.4%80.6%1497
Amari Cooper84N/A79.2%90.9%1272
Tyler Lockett6217.92%84.2%84.8%630
Jarvis Landry12426.78%87.7%80.8%1653
Kenny Golladay9620.47%91.2%83.3%1363
Calvin Ridley7514.71%60.6%62%732
Golden Tate9920.45%67.5%38.5%1072
Corey Davis9425.97%88.9%83.3%1595
Adam Humphries8115.67%69.1%81.4%1153
Julian Edelman8116.88%88.3%91.5%17105
Dede Westbrook8117.34%76.2%91.5%1150
A.J. Green7716.49%60.9%N/A1465
Chris Godwin7714.89%61%85.7%1393
Sterling Shepard8217.63%90.5%67.2%1876
DeSean Jackson7013.54%45.8%N/A510
Larry Fitzgerald8621.83%91.3%95.7%1265
Demaryius Thomas7618.86%77.4%94.4%1143
D.J. Moore6414.35%63.4%90.5%521
Josh Gordon6814.17%70.4%86.6%842
John Brown8517.45%65.6%70.4%1372
Cooper Kupp5612.15%72%N/A1270
Alshon Jeffery7415.29%81.6%98.1%1253
Mohamed Sanu7013.73%77.9%80.3%422
Allen Robinson7918.41%76.4%85.9%1152
Taylor Gabriel8319.35%79.8%80.3%853
Michael Crabtree9319.10%67.9%71.8%941
Mike Williams4811.62%61.1%50.9%951
Christian Kirk6817.26%79.1%N/A520
Kenny Stills5213.79%79.1%83.3%431
Willie Snead8717.86%67.5%71.8%500
Nelson Agholor8216.94%89.6%94.2%942
Devin Funchess7416.59%70.5%39.2%1174
Donte Moncrief8017.13%77.9%73.2%753
Tyrell Williams4711.38%74.8%84.2%411
Zay Jones7819.21%87.1%90.8%1442
Marvin Jones6213.22%72.8%N/A1161
Sammy Watkins5511.41%53%N/A1040
Jordy Nelson5812.61%79.3%94%741
Cole Beasley6816.23%65.3%65.7%942
Danny Amendola6316.71%73.7%47.9%110
Anthony Miller5111.89%63.1%52.1%1052
Curtis Samuel449.87%41.7%93.2%521
Will Fuller4511.17%77%N/A532
Courtland Sutton6514.29%72%68.9%743

Without Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton didn't do a whole lot this past week, but part of that was because of a thigh injury. The player who emerged in that Denver offense was DaeSean Hamilton, who played two-thirds of his snap from the slot, a role Sanders had played throughout the season. Hamilton ended Sunday with nine targets and seven catches. That's also an area of the field that Case Keenum seems to enjoy targeting -- last season, Keenum's Vikings ranked eighth in slot yards.

Curtis Samuel is being used more and more in the Carolina offense, having seen 19 targets over the past two weeks. He's now played three straight games with a snap share north of 83%. As this has happened, Devin Funchess has watched his share drop dramatically, as he's become just a part-time player.

The Bears only threw Anthony Miller onto the field for 52.1% of their snaps on Monday night, which was his second-lowest snap share of his season. Earlier in the season, it looked like he was emerging as a potential fantasy starter, but he's seen just three targets over the last two weeks. He's not someone you can trust, despite a plus matchup this week.

If you played Chris Godwin last week, you got the process right. He saw 10 targets -- you'll always take 10 targets from a fantasy wideout. The problem is that many of those looks weren't catchable, and he finished the day with just one reception. Nevertheless, without DeSean Jackson in the lineup over the last two years, Godwin is averaging 8.5 targets per game. With him, that number drops to just 4.1. Considering D-Jax is having trouble gripping a football right now, Godwin remains someone who should see volume in the Bucs passing attack. His matchup this week is tough, though, so you may not be able to start him.

Tight End Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Travis Kelce12325.52%95.6%98.8%22105
Zach Ertz12926.65%93.1%84.6%2083
George Kittle10223.61%86%91.7%1274
Eric Ebron9617.94%58.6%67.2%2053
Jared Cook8819.13%74.5%85.1%14103
Austin Hooper7915.49%80.1%77.5%1294
Rob Gronkowski6212.92%77.9%95.1%720
O.J. Howard489.28%60.8%N/A742
Jordan Reed8419.40%60.5%11.3%751
Trey Burton5913.75%81.2%80.3%1173
Jimmy Graham7715.31%75%72.3%844
David Njoku7315.77%80.3%82.7%431
Vance McDonald6010.71%56.4%63.3%621
Kyle Rudolph6412.21%88.8%98.3%1274
C.J. Uzomah5311.35%83.6%86.6%432
Christopher Herndon429.93%50.9%75.9%400
Jesse James376.61%55.1%51.7%521
Cameron Brate407.74%43.2%65.7%1143
Greg Olsen388.52%61.5%N/A633
Ben Watson399.24%49%43.8%964
Mark Andrews398.01%34.7%35.2%631
Dallas Goedert367.44%45%59.6%622
Evan Engram388.17%52.2%51.6%511
Vernon Davis337.62%49.3%79%100
Jeff Heuerman4810.55%76.9%N/A1272
Ricky Seals-Jones6115.48%63%62.9%321
Gerald Everett378.03%28.3%57.1%961
Jonnu Smith318.56%75.2%28.3%552
Antonio Gates348.23%33.5%40.4%874
Jordan Thomas245.96%46.5%45.8%741

Gerald Everett played more snaps than Tyler Higbee in Week 14, and that was the first time that's happened in 2018. Everett's 57.1% snap share was easily his highest of the season -- it makes sense that he also saw a season-high seven targets. That's something to keep an eye on this week, because he could make for a decent streamer during championship week.

If you had told me at the beginning of the season that David Njoku would be seventh in target share at tight end through 14 weeks, I'd almost expect him to be a top-five tight end. But for whatever reason, Njoku hasn't been all that heavily involved in the red zone this year -- among the top-30 tight ends, only two have fewer red-zone targets.

One of my favorite streamers this week is Blake Jarwin, who's not even listed in the tight end usage report. He ran 19 more routes than any other Dallas tight end this past Sunday, and he saw more than two targets (he had seven) for the first time all season. If that workload continues against Indy, he'll be useful -- as I mentioned above, the Colts have been strong against wide receivers, but are surrendering a large percentage of receiving yards to tight ends and running backs.

Deep Ball Passing

Player15+ Yd Att15+ Yd Att %15+ Comp %15+ % of Tot Yds15+ Yd TD %
Ben Roethlisberger8715.93%39.08%27.84%39.29%
Andrew Luck8215.47%46.34%28.60%20.59%
Kirk Cousins7313.93%42.47%23.28%37.50%
Matt Ryan9518.92%43.16%28.66%21.43%
Aaron Rodgers10421.01%43.27%38.65%34.78%
Patrick Mahomes10521.78%47.62%34.56%23.26%
Tom Brady8016.77%43.75%26.57%30.43%
Matthew Stafford6313.64%46.03%26.39%27.78%
Jared Goff9119.87%48.35%31.80%25.93%
Eli Manning8117.69%46.91%30.66%16.67%
Derek Carr6113.38%45.90%23.79%22.22%
Case Keenum6514.35%43.08%28.54%33.33%
Cam Newton7416.74%39.19%20.37%20.83%
Dak Prescott5914.11%40.68%25.75%35.29%
Drew Brees6816.39%58.82%32.43%29.03%
Philip Rivers7518.34%56.00%33.10%31.03%
Deshaun Watson6716.67%47.76%27.11%22.73%
Carson Wentz6415.96%39.06%25.28%14.29%
Joe Flacco7018.47%34.29%25.72%16.67%
Baker Mayfield9124.20%47.25%39.76%31.58%
Blake Bortles5615.18%37.50%24.49%30.77%
Andy Dalton6216.99%43.55%27.32%28.57%
Mitchell Trubisky8323.65%34.94%35.32%28.57%
Russell Wilson7020.23%47.14%37.20%44.83%
Alex Smith6118.60%32.79%25.32%20.00%
Josh Rosen6119.43%40.98%33.82%40.00%
Sam Darnold6019.17%40.00%32.41%41.67%
Marcus Mariota5317.79%47.17%28.71%18.18%
Jameis Winston5921.85%40.68%27.11%21.43%
Ryan Fitzpatrick6526.42%53.85%44.13%35.29%
Josh Allen6428.19%29.69%39.19%60.00%
Ryan Tannehill3316.75%33.33%24.52%43.75%
Nick Mullens179.77%58.82%18.86%11.11%
Lamar Jackson1413.86%35.71%23.00%25.00%
Jeff Driskel1616.00%37.50%21.40%33.33%
Cody Kessler1212.37%33.33%17.58%0.00%

Prior to Freddie Kitchens taking over as Cleveland's offensive coordinator, Baker Mayfield was throwing it 15-plus air yards on about 22% of his passes. Since, that number's jumped to 27.5%. Had he been throwing it deep that often all year long, he'd be ranked second in deep-ball rate behind only Josh Allen.

The Minnesota offensive line has been a mess, and that's part of the reason why Kirk Cousins ranks towards the bottom in deep-ball rate. He's tossed it 15 or more yards through the air on roughly 14% of his pass attempts this year, far lower than Keenum's 18.3% rate with the Vikings last season.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

PlayerRush YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceRec YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceTotal Difference
Todd Gurley1203158.056.9550442.201.808.74
Alvin Kamara793115.315.6959142.591.417.11
Kareem Hunt82475.521.4837871.655.356.83
Melvin Gordon80295.373.6345341.982.025.65
James Conner909126.085.9246712.04-1.044.87
Alex Collins41172.754.2510510.460.544.79
James White34242.291.7167462.953.054.76
Kenyan Drake46343.100.9036651.603.404.30
Nick Chubb76085.092.9115020.661.344.26
Derrick Henry71294.774.237800.34-0.343.89
James Develin840.053.954100.18-0.183.77
Christian McCaffrey92676.200.8070163.072.933.74
Javorius Allen11030.742.2619620.861.143.41
Aaron Jones72084.823.1820610.900.103.28
Kapri Bibbs10130.682.3210210.450.552.88
Saquon Barkley112497.521.4862942.751.252.73
Phillip Lindsay96796.472.5321010.920.082.61
LeGarrette Blount36552.442.567200.31-0.312.24
Tevin Coleman55923.74-1.7426751.173.832.09
Leonard Fournette35042.341.6613910.610.392.05
Alfred Morris31712.12-1.126900.30-0.30-1.42
Dalvin Cook36702.46-2.4622220.971.03-1.43
Jordan Wilkins31812.13-1.137400.32-0.32-1.45
Jamaal Williams31012.07-1.079100.40-0.40-1.47
Marcus Murphy21501.44-1.442600.11-0.11-1.55
Alfred Blue46723.13-1.1310700.47-0.47-1.59
Jeffery Wilson18401.23-1.238700.38-0.38-1.61
Ezekiel Elliott126368.45-2.4550232.200.80-1.65
Jacquizz Rodgers10100.68-0.6824601.08-1.08-1.75
Bilal Powell34302.30-2.3011010.480.52-1.78
Lamar Miller90946.08-2.0816310.710.29-1.80
Chris Ivory34012.28-1.2815900.70-0.70-1.97
Gus Edwards44612.99-1.99700.03-0.03-2.02
LeSean McCoy47923.21-1.2121000.92-0.92-2.12
Theo Riddick10200.68-0.6836801.61-1.61-2.29
Dion Lewis47713.19-2.1934811.52-0.52-2.71
Jalen Richard23801.59-1.5948302.11-2.11-3.71
Frank Gore70804.74-4.7412410.540.46-4.28

We still haven't seen a rushing touchdown from Frank Gore despite 708 rushing yards. If he finishes the season without a rushing score, he'd become the first player to do so with 700 or more rushing yards since 2003.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

PlayerRec YdsTDShould HaveDifference
Antonio Brown1063126.375.63
Davante Adams1196127.174.83
John Ross20061.204.80
Tyler Lockett75594.534.47
Jaron Brown15050.904.10
Calvin Ridley65783.944.06
Mike Williams51673.093.91
Anthony Miller39962.393.61
Tyreek Hill1258117.543.46
Chris Conley26151.573.43
Kenny Stills50463.022.98
Aldrick Robinson18741.122.88
Dante Pettis36352.182.82
Cooper Kupp56663.392.61
David Moore41352.482.52
DeAndre Hopkins115196.902.10
Marvin Jones50853.051.95
Marquise Goodwin35942.151.85
AJ Green69464.161.84
Curtis Samuel36442.181.82
Tre'Quan Smith37142.221.78
Alshon Jeffery54253.251.75
Tyrell Williams54753.281.72
Taylor Gabriel56623.39-1.39
JuJu Smith-Schuster123467.40-1.40
Michael Gallup40412.42-1.42
Martavis Bryant26601.60-1.60
Keelan Cole44612.67-1.67
Quincy Enunwa44912.69-1.69
Jarvis Landry79034.74-1.74
Maurice Harris29101.75-1.75
Danny Amendola47912.87-1.87
D.J. Moore67624.05-2.05
Mike Evans120757.24-2.24
Willie Snead56813.41-2.41
Nelson Agholor57213.43-2.43
Brandin Cooks104836.28-3.28
Julio Jones142958.57-3.57

Now that JuJu Smith-Schuster saw positive touchdown regression, we've got a couple of newcomers towards the bottom of this week's wide receiver list. Nelson Agholor has seen inconsistent usage of late, but he's scored just once despite nearly 600 yards receiving. And Willie Snead is in a similar boat. The problem is, that positive regression may not come given their current usage and, in Snead's case, quarterback situation.