FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 16 Monday Night
Week 16 is just about in the rearview mirror, but worry not because we still have a Monday Night Football game left to scratch that DFS itch. Admittedly, our final Monday night game of the year is one that could use a DFS boost, too, as a matchup between the sub-.500 Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders has little in the way of real-life implications. But there's only so much football left, so we should still take advantage of our remaining slates while we still can!
For those unfamiliar with the single-game format, scoring is identical to its full roster cousin, except lineups consist of five flex spots, and kickers (remember them?) are an option in place of defense/special teams. The one twist? One of the five roster spots is your designated "MVP," who receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points. Naturally, it's crucial that you choose your MVP carefully if you want to be at the top of the leaderboards when it's all said and done.
Let's run through some of tonight's top plays, starting with the best options to consider for your MVP slot.
MVP Candidates
Phillip Lindsay ($15,000 on FanDuel): In a game with a lot of shaky fantasy options, Phillip Lindsay stands out as your safest MVP choice despite coming off a dud against the Cleveland Browns. Even in that Week 15 clunker, Lindsay continued to operate as Denver's clear lead back, logging 14 carries and 4 receptions (6 targets) and easily out-touching Royce Freeman ($7,000) by a count of 18-5. Over the last 5 games, Lindsay has enjoyed a 32.0% market share of carries and targets, easily the highest mark of any running back on the slate. He shouldn't have any trouble getting back on track against a Raiders defense that ranks 30th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play.
Derek Carr ($16,000) and Case Keenum ($14,000): Derek Carr and Case Keenum aren't exactly mainstays in main slate lineups, but we have to consider just about any quarterback in a single-game contest. Carr's outlook is improved at home against a Broncos secondary dealing with injuries, although he'll still have to deal with a pass rush that entered the weekend ranked fifth in adjusted sack rate. He hasn't exhibited much of a floor this year, but he's thrown for multiple scores in 3 of the last 5 games, and his 15.5 FanDuel points per game leads the slate. As for Keenum, he's been putting up ho-hum fantasy numbers for a while now, with a high score of just 16.38 FanDuel points over the last 8 games. The upside is questionable at best, but the Raiders' passing defense ranks dead last by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, so the matchup is theoretically right for a rare spike week.
Jared Cook ($13,000): Jared Cook disappeared in Week 15 against the Cincinnati Bengals, but he remains the best bet in Oakland's passing game with a team-high 20.2% target market share since the Amari Cooper trade. Prior to last week, Cook had compiled 100 yards and/or a touchdown in 4 straight games, and Denver has allowed the 6th-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Most tight ends aren't worthy of MVP consideration, but in a game that could be a bit ugly with just a 43.0-point total, Cook is a dark horse candidate to come through with a big night.
Value Plays
Doug Martin ($11,500) and Jalen Richard ($8,500): Doug Martin's salary sits more in the mid-tier, but he deserves a mention in a game that should remain close with Denver only favored by 2.5 points. His upside is likely capped against a Broncos run defense that now ranks 11th by numberFire's marks, and it's not like he's been tearing it up anyway, averaging just 9.0 FanDuel points since Marshawn Lynch was placed on injured reserve after Week 6. Still, he's seen double-digit touches in 7 of the last 8 games and leads the team in red zone carries by a wide margin (26). On the other hand, Jalen Richard's touches have been in the single-digits the last four games, leaving him with a low floor, but there could still be value at his lower price point. If Denver gets out to a big lead, Richard would likely benefit as the preferred pass-catching back, and Denver entered the week ranked just 24th in Target Success Rate allowed to running backs.
DaeSean Hamilton ($10,000), Tim Patrick ($10,500) and Courtland Sutton ($9,500): DaeSean Hamilton arguably has the safest floor of this trio, but any one of this group could emerge as the top-scoring Broncos wideout of the evening. Hamilton has a team-best 21 targets over the last couple games (25.3% target market share), and while he has 14 receptions and a touchdown to show for it, it's also only amounted to 93 yards. Tim Patrick has also emerged over that span, catching 12-of-18 targets for 150 yards. Courtland Sutton has disappointed lately, arguably making him the riskiest of the bunch, but he does have a team-high 13.0 average depth of target for the season that suggests some upside. If you're making multiple lineups, the best solution may be to get some exposure to all three and hope you hit the right combination.
Jordy Nelson ($9,000) and Marcell Ateman ($7,500): Simply as one of the last men standing in Oakland's receiving corp, Jordy Nelson comes in as one of the better values available, averaging 8.7 targets and a 25.5% target market share over the last 3 games. Meanwhile, Marcell Ateman has played over 80% of the snaps in 4 of the last 5 games, although it hasn't translated to much in the box score, as he's yet to hit double-digit FanDuel points in a game. He's more of a cheap dart throw but is worth considering in case he can get in the end zone off that playing time.
Kenyatta Storin is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Kenyatta Storin also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username yatters. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
