NFL Betting: Which Division Will Produce the Super Bowl 54 Winner?
Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, there are a lot of ways to get action on the upcoming NFL season.
It's not just about which team will win the Super Bowl or how many games a team will win. You can bet the conference of the eventual winner, the division, and even the state.
Now, though, I'm keying in on the division of the Super Bowl 54 winner. Which group is most likely to hoist the Lombardi Trophy? And which offers the most value?
Using numberFire's NFL projections and team power rankings, we can see easily which team is favored to win the Super Bowl (it's the New England Patriots), but I went ahead and combined those odds by division and matched them up to the odds listed on FanDuel Sportsbook. They're listed by cumulative win odds from our projections.
|Division||Super Bowl Odds||FanDuel Sportsbook Odds|
- The AFC West is both the favorite to win on FanDuel Sportsbook at +420 and in our algorithm's projections. That's primarily because of the Kansas City Chiefs (7.6% likely to win the Super Bowl, fourth-highest in the NFL) and the Los Angeles Chargers (6.7%, fifth-highest). Still, there isn't enough value on that number to get excited, when we know the Oakland Raiders (0.2%, 30th) and Denver Broncos (1.5%, 18th) are longshots to contend (both are +7000 to win outright).
- Staying out west, the NFC West also boasts two top-10 teams in Super Bowl probability (the Los Angeles Rams at 7.8% are third and the Seattle Seahawks at 4.3% are ninth). The Arizona Cardinals (0.2%) and San Francisco 49ers (1.1%) are in step with the AFC West's bottom half, but there's more value on the NFC West at +550.
- The NFC North gets us access to more mid-level contenders, as the Chicago Bears (5.9%, 6th), Minnesota Vikings (3.20%, 14th) Green Bay Packers (3.0%, 15th) are all top-half in win odds. The Detroit Lions (0.8%, 27th) don't project to flirt with Super Bowl relevancy, but three teams with a shot are better than two.
- The NFC South gives us a third NFC division in the top four in total win odds, via our projections. This includes the New Orleans Saints, who are second in win odds at 7.9%. The Carolina Panthers (2.5%), Atlanta Falcons (1.1%), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.0%), rank 17th, 21st, and 24th, respectively, in win odds. They are one of just two divisions where all four teams have at least a 1.0% chance to win Super Bowl 54.
- The AFC East is all about the Patriots. They're the only team in football with at least an 8.0% chance to win Super Bowl 54, and they're up at 10.5%. At 69.2%, their division title odds are one of two marks above 50.0% (the Saints are at 50.7%). That's because the Buffalo Bills (1.4%, 19th), New York Jets (0.5%, 28th), and Miami Dolphins (0.1%, 32nd) are all bottom-10 teams based on our nERD metric.
- The longshots based on the betting odds, the NFC East is intriguing. The Philadelphia Eagles are seventh in both our nERD power ranking metric and in Super Bowl win odds (5.6%). The Cowboys are actually eighth in championship odds (4.6%) despite ranking 15th in nERD. New York (1.0%, 24th) and Washington (0.5%, 28th) don't figure to push them, but they also don't figure to help your betting card if you back the NFC East.
- The AFC North is almost always a slugfest, but despite the low win odds for each individual team, they combine to have three teams in the top half in Super Bowl win odds: the Pittsburgh Steelers (4.1%, 10th), the Baltimore Ravens (3.3%, 12th), and the Cleveland Browns (2.9%, 16th). Only the NFC North can also claim three teams with at least a 2.5% championship projection. The Cincinnati Bengals, for what it's worth, rank 26th in odds (0.9%).
- For the low cumulative win odds, the AFC South actually has all four teams at 1.1% or higher in our simulations. The Indianapolis Colts (3.9%) and Houston Texans (3.3%) are top-12. The Tennessee Titans (1.4%) are 19th, and the Jacksonville Jaguars (1.1%) are 21st. With one of the four guaranteed a playoff berth due to a division win and all teams between 9th and 22nd in nERD, it still makes some sense to consider the AFC South at +650.
Mathematically, the best bet is the NFC East (+700), believe it or not. Again, the Eagles and Cowboys are both top-10 in championship odds, and we're getting a long number at +650 on the division. The worst bet to back based on the numbers is the NFC South at just +500. The Saints are second in win odds at 7.9%, but they're one of four teams between 6.0% and 8.0%, and the rest of the division isn't strong enough to help out.
I still like the AFC North (+650) and NFC North (+600), though, as each offer three teams in the top half of Super Bowl win odds and don't have the steep asking prices that the AFC and NFC West do.