Daily Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 2

Week 2 is always my favorite week of daily fantasy football. We finally have in-season data to search through, and we can adjust our outlooks on players based on how they were used in the opener.

It's like a mini-Christmas for those who dig deep into the data and try be early adopters of new trends. It doesn't always work out, and sometimes Week 1 usage is just a trap, but we can still rely on it to inform our decisions for this week.

Of course, numberFire has no shortage of tools -- lineup generators, fantasy projections, and more -- to help you round out your rosters, but some extra prep never hurt anyone. So, here are some notes to know about each and every game on FanDuel's main slate for Week 2.

The Slate

San Francisco at Cincinnati
Minnesota at Green Bay
Buffalo at NY Giants
Jacksonville at Houston
LA Chargers at Detroit
Seattle at Pittsburgh
Dallas at Washington
New England at Miami
Arizona at Baltimore
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Kansas City at Oakland
New Orleans at LA Rams
Chicago at Denver

San Francisco at Cincinnati

Spread: CIN (-2) (% of Money on the Favorite: 55%)
Over/Under: 45.0 (% of Money on the Over: 85%)

San Francisco Offense Notes
- The San Francisco 49ers' implied total of 21.5 ranks 16th on the main slate.
- Matt Breida ($5,600) played 44.1% of snaps last week and handled 10 of 16 running back carries after Tevin Coleman's ankle injury. Raheem Mostert ($5,600) played 29.4% of snaps and had 6 carries after Coleman's exit. Breida grades out as a strong value play, while Mostert is overpriced as the second fiddle.
- George Kittle ($7,100) saw 10 targets (a 38.5% target share), as well as three of four red zone targets.
- Dante Pettis ($5,600) played two snaps last week after entering the season as the ostensible number-one wideout for the 49ers.
- Deebo Samuel ($4,900) led the team in snap rate in Week 1 (88.2%) and is viable just because of his cheap tag; Marquise Goodwin ($5,200; 73.5%) ranked second in snap rate but had no deep targets. Richie James ($4,700) scored but played only 38.2% of snaps.
- Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,000) accounted for just 166 passing yards on the full game and threw 14 times after Coleman's injury, while the 49ers played from ahead. Pro-Football-Reference charged him with the second-highest rate of bad throws in Week 1.

Cincinnati Offense Notes
- The Cincinnati Bengals have an implied total of 23.5 points, 11th on the main slate.
- Joe Mixon ($7,500) could miss this game but is planning to play. Giovani Bernard ($5,700) into a big workload. He played 62.3% of snaps last week, according to FantasyData. Last year in Weeks 3 and 4 without Mixon, Bernard saw 27 carries and 13 targets. If Mixon plays, he's looking overpriced, and Bernard won't have the workload to consider when we have other value backs in play.
- John Ross ($6,400) and Tyler Boyd ($6,300) each saw double-digit targets in Week 1, 12 and 11, respectively. In addition to 24.5% of the team's targets, Ross accounted for 5 of 10 deep targets (16-plus yards downfield) and 1 of 2 red zone targets. No other pass-catcher had more deep targets than Ross. Boyd could be overlooked, but his price drop may also negate that. It's something to monitor into the weekend.
- Tyler Eifert ($4,900) played less than half the snaps last week.

Core Plays: Matt Breida, George Kittle, Tyler Boyd
Secondary Plays: Giovani Bernard, John Ross
Tournament Plays: Deebo Samuel, Andy Dalton

Minnesota at Green Bay

Spread: GB (-3) (% of Money on the Favorite: 47%)
Over/Under: 44.0 (% of Money on the Over: 60%)

Minnesota Offense Notes
- The Minnesota Vikings' 20.5-point implied total is fifth-lowest on the main slate.
- By now, we all know that Kirk Cousins ($7,300) threw just 10 times in Week 1, a game plan that the Vikings would prefer whenever possible.
- They leaned on Dalvin Cook ($7,900) for 21 carries and 111 yards. He played 67.9% of snaps but also had two targets and three total red zone opportunities, keeping him in play despite being an underdog.
- Adam Thielen ($7,300) saw three targets (33.3%); Stefon Diggs ($6,900) had just two (22.2%) and the lone deep target. They're overpriced unless you bank on a shootout and stack this game.

Green Bay Offense Notes
- The Green Bay Packers' implied total is 23.5, ranking 11th of 26 teams on the main slate.
- Aaron Jones ($6,400) is priced fairly after playing 59.4% of snaps in Week 1 but doesn't stand out with other value plays on the board, given the game script. He handled 14 running back touches, with Jamaal Williams ($4,800) getting 7.
- Aaron Rodgers ($8,000) grades out as an interesting tournament play at low ownership. He was one of six passers with a double-digit average depth of target in Week 1, but outside of game stacks, we shouldn't consider him at this price.
- Jimmy Graham ($5,400) accounted for 21.4% of the team's targets in Week 1 while playing 54.7% of snaps. He also had 117 air yards. For context, he had just two 100-plus-air-yard games in 2018. The arrow is pointing up, and he saw two end zone targets in Week 1.
- Davante Adams ($8,200) was held to 36 yards and had 63 air yards, both marks the fewest he's had since Week 1 of 2018. Of note, Julio Jones converted 11 targets into 6 yards, 31 yards, and a touchdown against Minnesota last weekend.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Davante Adams, Dalvin Cook, Jimmy Graham, Adam Thielen
Tournament Plays: Stefon Diggs, Aaron Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,700), Aaron Rodgers

Buffalo at NY Giants

Spread: BUF (-1.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 48%)
Over/Under: 43.5 (% of Money on the Over: 68%)

Buffalo Offense Notes
- The Buffalo Bills' 22.5-point implied total ranks 13th, and they're road favorites.
- Josh Allen ($7,500) ran 10 times last week, 6 of which were scrambles, and 24.3% of his passes traveled at least 16 yards downfield, the fifth-highest deep rate from Week 1. The New York Giants let up 3 completions on 3 attempts for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns on deep balls last week.
- Devin Singletary ($5,700) played 69.6% of snaps last week and tallied 4 carries and 6 targets, a great snap rate but a modest workload.
- John Brown ($6,300) led the Bills with at 27.8% target rate (10 targets) in Week 1 and saw 3 of 8 deep targets his way while running 84.1% of routes, via ProFootballFocus.
- Cole Beasley ($5,000) played 85.5% of snaps and had downfield work with 81 air yards and a deep target, giving him a 9.0-yard average depth of target.
- Zay Jones ($4,700) had three deep targets of his own, plus an end zone target, despite just 15 pass routes.

NY Giants Offense Notes
- The Giants' implied total of 21.0 is tied for eighth-lowest of 26 main slate teams.
- Saquon Barkley ($9,000) played 79.7% of snaps last week and added 6 targets to his 11 carries (4 in the red zone). The low touchdown equity (we project New York for 2.2 scores) should give us cause for concern.
- Eli Manning ($6,400) had a lowly 6.5-yard average depth of target and threw just 11.4% of passes over 16 yards (29th in deep-ball rate).
- - Sterling Shepard ($6,000) played 98.6% of snaps but had only 21 air yards on 7 targets and profiles as a low-ceiling play in my simulations. He also is in concussion protocol.
- Evan Engram ($6,400) turned a team-high 14 targets into 116 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 while running a route on 82.4% of the Giants' drop backs.

Core Plays: Evan Engram, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley
Secondary Plays: Cole Beasley (cash games)
Tournament Plays: John Brown, Devin Singletary

Jacksonville at Houston

Spread: HOU (-9.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 63%)
Over/Under: 43.5 (% of Money on the Over: 46%)

Jacksonville Offense Notes
- The Jacksonville Jaguars' implied total is just 17.0 points, third-lowest on the main slate.
- Gardner Minshew's ($6,400) target distribution in Week 1 favored Dede Westbrook ($5,900) with six, but he accounted for just six air yards on those throws. Chris Conley ($5,100) saw five targets from Minshew. D.J. Chark ($5,400) saw 2 passes, but they were 29 and 43 yards downfield. Minshew also threw to Leonard Fournette ($6,900) four times.
- In total, Minshew's average depth was 5.4 yards, but he did throw deep 4 times, completing all for 141 yards and a touchdown.
- Fournette played a workhorse-level 86.2% of snaps and ran a route on 69.4% of drop backs, putting him in game-script-proof territory, but the low offensive upside keeps high-end output in check.
- Minshew threw to tight end Geoff Swaim ($4,500) 3 times for 3 air yards and 17 receiving yards. Swaim played 50.0% of snaps and ran a route on 38.9% of drop backs. James O'Shaughnessy ($4,500) ran a route on 58.3% of drop backs and had better overall usage.

Houston Offense Notes
- The Houston Texans, favored by 8.5, have an implied total of 26.5 points, fifth-highest on the main slate.
- Deshaun Watson ($8,500) threw deep at the seventh-highest rate in Week 1. The Jags let up 132 yards and a touchdown on 4 deep passes in Week 1. There are better point-per-dollar plays for cash-games, but Watson does project for a high ceiling, hitting 26.7 FanDuel points in his 75th-percentile projection in my simulations.
- Watson peppered DeAndre Hopkins ($9,000) 13 times (a 44.8% target share) in Week 1 and giving him 4 deep targets, tied for second-most of all wideouts in Week 1. Against Jacksonville last year, Hopkins accrued 14 catches on 23 targets for 191 yards (237 air yards) and a touchdowns, netting 12.5 and 20.7 FanDuel points in Weeks 7 and 17, respectively.
- Will Fuller ($6,100) ran a route on all but one passing play in Week 1 but accounted for just a 10.3% target share (3 total targets).
- The backfield is a bit messy. Duke Johnson ($6,100) played 62.7% of snaps in Week 1. Carlos Hyde ($5,400) played 37.3% but had 10 carries on his 25 snaps. Johnson stands out as a bounceback candidate in my simulations.

Core Plays: Leonard Fournette, Dede Westbrook
Secondary Plays: Duke Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, D.J. Chark
Tournament Plays: Deshaun Watson, Chris Conley, Will Fuller

LA Chargers at Detroit

Spread: LAC (-2.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 71%)
Over/Under: 47.5 (% of Money on the Over: 94%)

LA Chargers Offense Notes
- The Los Angeles Chargers' implied total of 25.0 is eighth on the main slate, and everyone loves the over.
- They ran the 28th-fastest offense, based on adjusted seconds per play using pre-snap win probability expectations.
- Austin Ekeler's price hike to $7,500 is warranted after finishing as the weekly RB2 and playing 75.0% of snaps in the opener (12 carries, 7 targets). Few backs have a workload in that tier. I prefer the more established backs with better scripts in a game that should be in the mix for fewest offensive plays combined.
- Keenan Allen ($7,700) saw 30.3% of the Chargers' targets (10) and had a 42.9% deep target share, catching all 3 for 66 yards and a touchdown. Allen was one of seven players with multiple end zone targets in Week 1, as well.
- Hunter Henry ($6,200) drew 2 deep targets on 5 total looks last week while playing an elite 90.6% snap rate, the sixth-highest snap rate in Week 1 among all tight ends. News emerged that he has a fracture in his knee.
- Mike Williams ($6,100) saw 2 targets on a concerning 69.2% route rate in Week 1 but could see a boost without Henry.

Detroit Offense Notes
- The Detroit Lions' implied total of 22.5 ranks 13th on the main slate.
- Kerryon Johnson ($6,600) played a middling 56.8% of snaps in Week 1 and totaled 18 opportunities (16 carries, 2 targets) while posting an inefficient line. The pace is probably too low here to consider Johnson outside of game stacks.
- Matthew Stafford ($7,000) threw deep at the third-highest rate in the NFL last week (28.9%) and had an average target depth of 12.0 yards, compared to a mark of 7.0 last season.
- Danny Amendola ($5,400) led in targets with 13, a 31.7% target share and a solid 23.6% air yards share. He ran 70.6% of possible routes.
- Marvin Jones ($5,700) ran 46 routes (90.2%) but saw only 4 targets and 52 air yards, catching both of his deep targets. The better workload should lean toward Jones week in and week out over Amendola.
- Kenny Golladay ($6,600) and T.J. Hockenson ($6,000) each saw nine targets, including four deep targets. Hockenson's 142 air yards were the only mark other than Jimmy Graham's 117 over 74 for a tight end in Week 1. Golladay had zero catches on his four deep targets. Both are in the mix for splash plays with their volume.

Core Plays: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler
Secondary Plays: TJ Hockenson, Kenny Golladay
Tournament Plays: Mike Williams (if he plays), Kerryon Johnson

Seattle at Pittsburgh

Spread: PIT (-4.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 51%)
Over/Under: 46.5 (% of Money on the Over: 98%)

Seattle Offense Notes
- Seattle's implied team total is just 21 points, 10th-lowest on the main slate. The over has been hammered.
- Seattle ranked 25th in situation-neutral pace, according to FootballOutsiders, in Week 1.
- Seattle ranked 29th in pass rate versus expectation in Week 1.
- Chris Carson ($7,400) led the team in targets (7) and handled 15 of 21 running back carries, plus all 4 red zone carries while playing 77.4% of snaps. He's entering game-script-proof territory but still has a low team total.
- Tyler Lockett ($7,600) didn't see a target until the fourth-quarter, a long touchdown pass from Russell Wilson ($7,600), who threw just 20 times. D.K. Metcalf ($6,100) took four of eight deep targets for the team while running 22 of 24 routes. Pittsburgh allowed 4 of 6 passing for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns on deep throws last week. This offense could make highlight plays, but pace is a potential concern.

Pittsburgh Offense Notes
- Pittsburgh has the seventh-highest implied total on the main slate (25.5 points) but ranked 32nd in situation-neutral pace in Week 1.
- James Conner ($7,700) enters as a 4.5-point home favorite this week after playing just 46.4% of snaps in a blowout loss on the road. Our projections like him for a bounceback given his usual workload and Pittsburgh's solid implied team total.
- Ben Roethlisberger ($7,600) had identical Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back marks last year at home and on the road. He was just 2 for 10 on deep passes last week while playing from behind. The Seahawks let up 5 of 10 completions for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns on deep throws last week.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,100) could be a tournament play here with an elevated price tag. He had just one deep target and 13.8% of the Steelers' air yards in Week 1 against a New England Patriots team that often aims to limit the opponent's best weapon. The routes (85.7%) and snaps (89.9%) were still in his favor.
- Vance McDonald ($5,600) played a higher snap rate than I expected last week (71.0%) but saw just 4 targets and 40 air yards, with no deep or red zone looks. That workload keeps him in game-stack territory as a home favorite with a strong total, which is the tight end checklist.

Core Plays: James Conner
Secondary Plays: Ben Roethlisberger, Chris Carson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Lockett,
Tournament Plays: Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Vance McDonald

Dallas at Washington

Spread: DAL (-5.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 99%)
Over/Under: 46.5 (% of Money on the Over: 91%)

Dallas Offense Notes
- The Dallas Cowboys' implied team total of 26.0 ties for sixth-highest on the main slate. They're 4.5-point road favorites.
- The offense starts with Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500), who played 37 snaps (54.4%) and handled 15 total opportunities, including 3 red zone carries. Washington ranks 26th in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play after a week of action.
- Despite 3 drops, Dak Prescott ($7,700) lit it up last week, generating 31.79 Passing NEP on 32 attempts but threw deep only thrice (9.4%), a deep-ball rate that ranked 33rd among all quarterbacks. Washington got carved up last week. Prescott isn't a must-play but is in the consideration set.
- Amari Cooper ($7,800) ran 31 of 32 routes last week and scored on 1 of his 9 targets (a 28.1% target share).
- Jason Witten ($4,700) earned 2 of 3 red zone targets and played 66.2% of snaps, but Washington did put the clamps on tight end production last season and "held" Zach Ertz to 54 yards on 7 targets in Week 1.
- Michael Gallup ($6,200) saw a $600 price hike after netting 158 yards on 7 targets and an 87.5% route rate, keeping him a valuable, inexpensive piece of this passing attack.
Randall Cobb ($5,500) saw a route on 75.0% of drop backs and had a red zone target and a deep target. If you're drawn to this game, sure, take a stab, but don't chase the touchdown.

Washington Offense Notes
- Washington's 20.5-point implied total is tied for a bottom-seven mark as a 4.5-point home underdog and will be without starting running back Derrius Guice.
- The anticipated game script doesn't set up well for I-Formation rusher Adrian Peterson ($4,800), but he should handle around 60.0% of the team's rushing workload, based on numberFire's projections. His 75th-percentile projection is still only 15.3 FanDuel points. You would likely need to hit on the rest of your lineup if you roster AD.
- Chris Thompson ($5,300) had 10 targets last week and played 64.2% of snaps. As a projected underdog, Thompson could be in the mix for double-digit targets again.
- Route leaders for Washington from Week 1: Trey Quinn ($5,100; 97.8%), Terry McLaurin ($5,300; 88.9%), Paul Richardson ($4,700; 80.0%). McLaurin's 43.0% air yards share puts him at the top of the tournament list.

Core Plays: Ezekiel Elliott
Secondary Plays: Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott, Chris Thompson, Adrian Peterson (cash games)
Tournament Plays: Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb, Terry McLaurin

New England at Miami

Spread: NE (-18.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 81%)
Over/Under: 47.5 (% of Money on the Over: 55%)

New England Offense Notes
- The New England Patriots' implied total of 33.0 is easily the highest of the main slate, and they're 18.5-point road favorites.
- Tom Brady ($7,800) shouldn't have to throw much but should be a highly efficient passer this week, and he pops as one of the likeliest passers to top 30 FanDuel points (10.0% of simulations) this weekend.
- Julian Edelman ($7,100) was the target of 29.7% of Brady's passes in Week 1, including 2 of 6 deep targets and 1 of 5 red zone targets. Miami let up 119 yards and 3 touchdowns to the slot in Week 1, according to ProFootballFocus.
- Josh Gordon ($6,300) ran 89.5% of routes but saw just 4 targets. They were high-leverage, at least, including two red zone targets. He's quite cheap, but game script could lead to limited volume again.
- No Patriots back cleared a 50.0% snap rate, despite overwhelmingly positive game script, so that sort of ruins the vibe on Sony Michel ($6,800; 32.9% snap rate), who should see heavy work in Week 2.
- James White ($6,300; 47.1% snap rate) saw 7 targets; Rex Burkhead ($4,600, 45.7% snap rate) saw 8. We can't really know what to expect.

Miami Offense Notes
- The Dolphins are a tough sell outside of bring-back players in game stacks built around the Patriots, as Miami's implied total is just 14.5 points, by far the lowest on the slate.
- Kenyan Drake ($5,500) played 54.0% of snaps (26 total and 4 as a receiver) and had better usage than Kalen Ballage ($5,100), but Drake still had just 3 targets in the blowout.
- DeVante Parker ($5,300) accounted for 38.9% of Miami's air yards (163 total) and 4 deep targets, so he makes sense in bring-back stacks. - Preston Williams ($4,800) saw a pair of end zone looks but ran just 14 of 37 routes.
- Michael Gesicki ($4,800) ran 73.0% of pass routes and had an 18.8% target share in the opener.

Core Plays: Tom Brady, Julian Edelman
Secondary Plays: Josh Gordon, James White
Tournament Plays: Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, DeVante Parker, Kenyan Drake

Arizona at Baltimore

Spread: BAL (-13) (% of Money on the Favorite: 39%)
Over/Under: 46.5 (% of Money on the Over: 68%)

Arizona Offense Notes
- The Arizona Cardinals (16.75) own the main slate's second-lowest implied total as 13-point road underdogs here.
- Kyler Murray ($6,500) was 23 of 38 for 267 yards and an above-league-average 0.21 Passing NEP per drop back in the second half and overtime last week. The Baltimore Ravens will be a tougher test, for sure, but his 570 air yards were 21st highest since 2012.
- David Johnson ($7,300) pops as a fine volume play for a reasonable price here, as he played 76 snaps last week, including 16 as a wide receiver and handled 18 of 19 running back carries. He also saw a deep target, on which he scored. His usage is primo.
- My simulations love Christian Kirk ($5,400) at his low salary. The low touchdown equity keeps his ceiling capped, but he should pay off his tag after seeing 23.1% of targets and 25.6% of air yards last week, coming up empty on 4 deep targets.
- Larry Fitzgerald ($5,500) is in a similar boat after leading the team with 13 targets last week, including 4 deep targets and 2 red zone targets. The catch-up volume should help him at just $5,500.

Baltimore Offense Notes
- The Ravens boast a 29.75-point implied team total, just 0.25 behind the Kansas City Chiefs, for context, to rank third on the main slate.
- Lamar Jackson ($8,200) was ice cold last week, as we all know, and against the Cardinals, who are second in adjusted seconds per play after one game, he projects as the best bet to go for 30-plus FanDuel points among all quarterbacks in my simulations.
- Mark Ingram ($7,500) played just 32.5% of snaps last week but had 14 carries on those 25 plays; he saw just 9 of 17 running back carries in the first half, which makes him scary again in a possible blowout.
- Marquise Brown ($5,700) churned out 147 yards and a pair of touchdowns on just 14 snaps (5 targets). He should be on the field much more than that in Week 2. I'll have exposure to Brown, but we shouldn't pretend like he doesn't carry risk.
- Mark Andrews ($6,100) is a heavy home favorite and was targeted on 7 of Jackson's 20 attempts (35.0%). T.J. Hockenson tore the Cardinals apart last week.

Core Plays: Lamar Jackson
Secondary Plays: David Johnson, Mark Ingram, Marquise Brown, Christian Kirk
Tournament Plays: Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Mark Andrews

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Spread: TEN (-3) (% of Money on the Favorite: 62%)
Over/Under: 44.5 (% of Money on the Over: 66%)

Indianapolis Offense Notes
- Despite showing a pulse last weekend, the Indianapolis Colts' implied total is still just 20.75, sixth-lowest on the main slate.
- Marlon Mack ($7,400) is a 3-point road underdog and saw no targets last week despite running a route on 63.3% of routes.
- T.Y. Hilton ($7,600) got fed an elite workload in Week 1: 33.3% of targets, 40.9% of air yards, and 3 red zone targets.
- Eric Ebron ($5,700) ran more routes than Jack Doyle ($5,400), but the tight end matchup is rough against the Tennessee Titans.

Tennessee Offense Notes
- The Titans are 10th on the main slate with a 23.75-point implied team total, which is pretty surprising to me. They do rank 10th in adjusted offense after the first game, per our metrics.
- Marcus Mariota ($7,400) tied for third in bad-throw rate in Week 1 and projects as a low-ceiling play in my simulations.
- Derrick Henry ($7,500) played 59.0% of snaps and had 19 carries (4 red zone carries) in the opener while getting 2 targets.
- Delanie Walker ($5,900) seems priced out after two touchdowns last week. He did run 66.7% of snaps and had a 25.0% target share, though.
- Corey Davis ($5,700) had just 3 targets on 21 routes but compiled 29.0% of the team's air yards; A.J. Brown ($5,400) had 4 targets and 37.2% of the air yards on 18 routes.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Derrick Henry, Jacoby Brissett (cash games)
Tournament Plays: T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack, Delanie Walker

Kansas City at Oakland

Spread: KC (-7.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 90%)
Over/Under: 52.5 (% of Money on the Over: 97%)

Kansas City Offense Notes
- The Chiefs should dominate here, as their implied total is 30.0 points, second on the main slate. The over/under (52.5) is one of two games above 48.0.
- Travis Kelce ($8,000) had three end zone targets -- end zone, not red zone -- in Week 1. He had empty usage last week, catching 3 of 8 targets, meaning a bounce-back is in order without Tyreek Hill in the mix.
- Sammy Watkins ($7,400) accounted for 56.3% of Kansas City's air yards and played nearly every snap, allowing us to chase his huge day.
- Patrick Mahomes ($8,000) projects to surpass 30 FanDuel points 22.4% of the time in my simulated games; the ceiling is insane unless Oakland can slow things down (26th in situation-neutral pace).
- Damien Williams ($6,600) outsnapped LeSean McCoy ($5,800) 46 to 20 last week. Williams has the edge, but the ceiling is capped with the committee.
- Mecole Hardman ($4,700) ran 79.4% of pass routes last week but had one empty target.

Oakland Offense Notes
- Oakland's 22.5-point implied total is 13th on the main slate as 7.5-point home underdogs.
- We'll need to track Derek Carr ($6,600). His 8.5-yard average depth of target and 19.2% deep-ball rate are abnormal for him. The Chiefs let up 5 completions on 5 deep attempts for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.
- Darren Waller ($5,400) led the team in targets (8, a 30.8% share) and played every snap in Week 1, something only one other tight end did.
- Tyrell Williams ($5,900) had 7 targets of his own (26.9% share), 3 of which were deep. He's a great piece to bring-back stacks when loading up on Mahomes.
- Josh Jacobs ($6,500) drew just one target but ran 10 of 27 routes (37.0%). More importantly, he played 74.1% of snaps and had eight red zone carries.

Core Plays: Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Patrick Mahomes, Darren Waller
Secondary Plays: Josh Jacobs, Tyrell Williams
Tournament Plays: Mecole Hardman, Derek Carr, Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy,

New Orleans at LA Rams

Spread: LAR (-2.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 29%)
Over/Under: 51.5 (% of Money on the Over: 79%)

New Orleans Offense Notes
- This game had a slate-high 53.0-point total before falling by 1.5 points. New Orleans Saints' total is 24.5, ninth-highest.
- Drew Brees ($8,000) is possibly overpriced despite that, based on the simulations. I'm still stacking him in lineups, but he's not a cash-game play against the Los Angeles Rams' 10th-ranked pass defense.
- Michael Thomas ($8,500) ate on Monday night: 10 catches on 13 targets for 123 yards (35.1% target share and 45.4% of the air yards).
- Alvin Kamara ($8,700) played 75.8% of snaps and had 8 targets and 3 red zone chances on Monday night. In this game, he's a strong bet to finish as the top-scoring back on the main slate. He projects as the most likely (17.6%) back to crack 30 FanDuel points, and only Saquon Barkley is close (16.9%)
- Jared Cook ($6,000) posted just an 8.1% target share but did play 63.6% of snaps, keeping him a game-stack candidate.
- Latavius Murray ($5,900) played just 27.3% of snaps but did get 2 red zone looks, and Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,000) saw 29.0% of New Orleans' air yards.

LA Rams Offense Notes
- The Rams' implied total of 27.0 is fourth on the main slate.
- Jared Goff was charged with 7 bad throws on 39 attempts in Week 1 but plays infinitely better at home than on the road. Last season, he posted a 0.08 Passing NEP per drop back on the road and 0.36 at home, basically performing with the league-best efficiency when at home.
- Last week, Robert Woods ($7,300) led with 13 targets. Cooper Kupp ($6,800) had 10. Brandin Cooks ($7,000) had five. The target depth favored Cooks (13.3) while Woods (7.5) and Kupp (5.0) were close to the line.
- Todd Gurley ($7,000) is still in play in this shootout despite the fact that he didn't get a red zone touch and had just one target on his 70.1% snap rate in Week 1. Malcolm Brown ($5,500) stole 5 red zone carries on 21 snaps.
- Tyler Higbee ($4,500) saw 2 red zone targets and played 51.9% of the snaps. At minimum salary, there are worse punt plays, given this game script.

Core Plays: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods
Secondary Plays: Brandin Cooks, Jared Goff, Drew Brees, Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp, Jared Cook
Tournament Plays: Latavius Murray, Ted Ginn, Tyler Higbee

Chicago at Denver

Spread: CHI (-2.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 94%)
Over/Under: 40.5 (% of Money on the Over: 32%)

Chicago Offense Notes
- In the slate's lowest over/under by 3.0 points (40.5), the Chicago Bears' implied total is just 21.5, 10th-lowest on the docket.
- Mitchell Trubisky ($6,800) posted a 38.0% Passing Success Rate on Thursday Night Football. There's not a clear path to playing him on a 13-game slate.
- Allen Robinson ($7,200) got full-on WR1 treatment in Week 1 with a 28.9% target share and 40.5% of the team's air yards on 6 of 10 deep targets. The game script and low touchdown equity kill his upside, but he did play 29 of 68 snaps from the slot.
- Tarik Cohen ($6,100) played 4 backfield snaps in Week 1, running 47 as a receiver, via PFF.
- David Montgomery ($5,800) and Mike Davis ($4,900) played 56.2% and 38.4% of snaps, respectively.

Denver Offense Notes
- The Broncos' 19.0-point implied total is fourth-lowest on the main slate as a home underdog.
- Phillip Lindsay ($6,600) played 53.1% of snaps. Royce Freeman ($5,900) played 46.9%. Timeshare risks in games with low totals are deadly for DFS floors and ceilings. Lindsay ran 17 routes; Freeman had 16.
- Snap leaders for Denver in Week 1: Emmanuel Sanders ($5,600; 57); Courtland Sutton ($5,900; 57); DaeSean Hamilton ($5,600; 49); Noah Fant ($5,200; 52). The targets preferred Sutton (8), followed by Sanders (7), Lindsay (6), Fant (5), and Hamilton (4).

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: None
Tournament Plays: Allen Robinson