Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Simulations for Week 5
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. For tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | $8,000 | 21.9 | 37.1% | 1.55 | 33.3% | 26.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,300 | 20.6 | 27.2% | 0.90 | 26.7% | 25.3 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,800 | 19.8 | 32.0% | 1.12 | 26.4% | 25.3 |
| Dak Prescott | $8,200 | 19.4 | 24.3% | 0.68 | 23.2% | 24.3 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,700 | 18.9 | 25.4% | 0.69 | 18.8% | 23.3 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,400 | 18.8 | 33.1% | 1.04 | 20.4% | 23.9 |
| Jameis Winston | $7,600 | 18.7 | 27.9% | 0.84 | 18.9% | 23.5 |
| Tom Brady | $7,600 | 18.5 | 28.9% | 0.90 | 19.0% | 23.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,800 | 18.4 | 25.5% | 0.69 | 19.2% | 23.6 |
| Philip Rivers | $7,700 | 17.9 | 26.1% | 0.74 | 16.9% | 23.4 |
| Andy Dalton | $7,500 | 17.6 | 27.0% | 0.75 | 17.5% | 23.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | $6,800 | 16.8 | 27.7% | 0.80 | 11.8% | 21.2 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $7,200 | 16.5 | 24.7% | 0.64 | 12.4% | 21.5 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,000 | 16.4 | 28.4% | 0.79 | 13.0% | 21.6 |
| Chase Daniel | $6,500 | 15.8 | 30.6% | 0.92 | 10.5% | 20.8 |
| Mason Rudolph | $6,500 | 15.6 | 28.0% | 0.72 | 10.0% | 20.3 |
| Kyle Allen | $6,500 | 15.4 | 31.1% | 0.85 | 10.0% | 20.8 |
| Marcus Mariota | $6,900 | 15.1 | 23.9% | 0.57 | 9.6% | 20.3 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $6,600 | 14.9 | 25.9% | 0.63 | 8.7% | 20.0 |
| Joe Flacco | $6,600 | 14.7 | 27.8% | 0.68 | 9.8% | 20.3 |
| Derek Carr | $6,600 | 13.9 | 22.0% | 0.48 | 5.7% | 19.2 |
| Luke Falk | $6,200 | 11.1 | 11.9% | 0.20 | 1.6% | 15.0 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Deshaun Watson grades out with the best boom-to-bust ratio among all quarterbacks despite his price tag of $8,000. This is to say that he has a high floor and high ceiling, really. The Atlanta Falcons rank 27th against the pass, according to numerFire's adjusted pass defense metrics, and the over/under is highest on the main slate by 2.5 points. The next most likely passers to hit 3x value are Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz, followed by $6,500 options Kyle Allen and Chase Daniel. It's worth noting that Allen ranks seventh in boom-bust rate. The top five in that metric for the week are Watson, Wentz, Murray, Daniel, and Lamar Jackson.
Tournament Standouts
If seeking 25-plus FanDuel points from your passer, the best bets this week to get to that mark are Deshaun Watson (33.3%), Lamar Jackson (26.7%), Wentz (26.4%), Dak Prescott (23.2%), and Kyler Murray (20.4%). On this slate, 20 passers have a 75th-percentile outcome of at least 20 points, but only those five are above 23.7. Additionally, Allen and Daniel rank top-five in value if using the 75th-percentile range rather than the median outcome. On a slate without a lot of great quarterback plays, they could be worth spending down for despite the opportunity cost of a lowered ceiling.
Running Backs
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
20+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,100 | 22.4 | 61.9% | 0.88 | 55.6% | 31.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | $8,200 | 20.1 | 63.1% | 1.02 | 51.6% | 28.0 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,200 | 19.2 | 58.8% | 0.78 | 46.7% | 27.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,800 | 19.0 | 52.6% | 0.53 | 45.0% | 26.3 |
| David Johnson | $6,800 | 17.8 | 64.9% | 1.20 | 43.0% | 25.2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $7,300 | 17.0 | 59.5% | 0.74 | 37.6% | 23.4 |
| Leonard Fournette | $6,900 | 16.4 | 60.1% | 0.86 | 37.0% | 23.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,200 | 15.3 | 56.6% | 0.63 | 34.1% | 22.5 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,100 | 15.0 | 51.7% | 0.49 | 28.3% | 20.9 |
| Aaron Jones | $6,800 | 14.4 | 52.5% | 0.50 | 25.0% | 20.0 |
| Derrick Henry | $6,700 | 14.2 | 54.7% | 0.53 | 24.4% | 19.9 |
| James Conner | $6,900 | 13.8 | 51.7% | 0.45 | 24.4% | 19.8 |
| David Montgomery | $5,700 | 12.6 | 56.3% | 0.67 | 18.6% | 17.9 |
| Wayne Gallman Jr. | $6,300 | 12.5 | 49.6% | 0.43 | 17.9% | 17.8 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,200 | 12.2 | 51.2% | 0.47 | 18.7% | 18.0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,700 | 12.2 | 44.1% | 0.31 | 17.5% | 17.9 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $6,800 | 11.8 | 43.8% | 0.31 | 19.5% | 17.9 |
| Mark Ingram II | $7,500 | 11.5 | 33.8% | 0.11 | 13.2% | 16.7 |
| Sony Michel | $6,300 | 11.1 | 41.9% | 0.28 | 12.9% | 16.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,000 | 10.9 | 45.9% | 0.33 | 11.4% | 16.2 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,600 | 10.4 | 47.0% | 0.35 | 9.7% | 15.3 |
| James White | $6,200 | 10.4 | 42.2% | 0.28 | 13.0% | 16.3 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,400 | 10.0 | 47.5% | 0.42 | 9.2% | 15.3 |
| Jordan Howard | $6,500 | 9.4 | 32.5% | 0.11 | 6.5% | 14.3 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,000 | 9.3 | 36.6% | 0.17 | 7.7% | 14.0 |
| Chris Thompson | $5,400 | 9.1 | 42.2% | 0.36 | 8.9% | 14.9 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,300 | 8.7 | 41.8% | 0.26 | 6.2% | 13.5 |
| Frank Gore | $5,700 | 8.7 | 34.5% | 0.18 | 5.3% | 13.3 |
| Tarik Cohen | $5,900 | 8.2 | 32.8% | 0.19 | 7.3% | 13.6 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,300 | 8.2 | 35.9% | 0.20 | 4.3% | 12.7 |
| Ronald Jones II | $5,900 | 7.8 | 24.4% | 0.07 | 2.1% | 11.7 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,300 | 7.2 | 24.9% | 0.09 | 0.8% | 10.6 |
| Peyton Barber | $5,500 | 7.1 | 27.0% | 0.10 | 2.5% | 11.6 |
| Jaylen Samuels | $5,000 | 7.0 | 31.8% | 0.17 | 2.6% | 11.6 |
Cash-Game Standouts
David Johnson is the most likely back to return 3x value in Week 5, followed by Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, and Dalvin Cook. Accounting for price, I do think I'd rank Kamara last of those five for cash games, but I'm just here to let you know what the math says. Those are also the top-five backs in boom-to-bust ratio, with McCaffrey leapfrogging Fournette by that measure.
Aside from that group, which I think is safe to call the top tier of backs this week, Le'Veon Bell, David Montgomery, Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Ezekiel Elliott round out the top 10 in boom-to-bust ratio. Montgomery's $5,700 price tag puts him in cash-game consideration. Ekeler's role could be too volatile to trust for Week 5 with plenty of strong backs from which to choose.
Tournament Standouts
The most likely backs to get over 20 FanDuel points will cost you this week: McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, Elliott, and Johnson. With Johnson at just $6,800, he's in the mix to be considered the number-one back on the board, despite McCaffrey's dominance. Elliott is the standout name there, as he's without left tackle Tyron Smith and in a game against a tough pass defense. With eyes elsewhere and if he hits on his upper range of outcomes, he can provide leverage in tournaments.
If we lop off the top-10 backs in terms of median value -- so the most obvious plays -- we still have some options who can go for 20-plus FanDuel points, including Joe Mixon (28.3%), Aaron Jones (25.0%), and James Conner (24.4%) -- if he plays. We can also throw in Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, Wayne Gallman, and Phillip Lindsay as backs with solid shots to put up 20-plus FanDuel points but who don't grade out as the best median value picks.
Wide Receivers
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | $7,500 | 17.2 | 58.0% | 1.03 | 58.0% | 24.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,500 | 16.9 | 48.9% | 0.57 | 56.9% | 24.1 |
| Michael Thomas | $7,700 | 16.1 | 51.4% | 0.64 | 52.6% | 22.4 |
| Julio Jones | $8,200 | 15.8 | 48.7% | 0.51 | 54.2% | 22.1 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,800 | 13.8 | 39.9% | 0.35 | 41.6% | 19.7 |
| Mike Evans | $7,700 | 13.8 | 43.3% | 0.39 | 45.3% | 20.1 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,700 | 13.4 | 49.9% | 0.66 | 43.0% | 20.1 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,900 | 13.1 | 40.4% | 0.29 | 43.6% | 19.3 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,800 | 13.0 | 55.5% | 0.92 | 40.8% | 19.0 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,900 | 12.6 | 47.1% | 0.48 | 40.2% | 19.0 |
| Julian Edelman | $6,500 | 12.5 | 49.7% | 0.56 | 40.2% | 18.4 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $7,300 | 12.1 | 38.5% | 0.33 | 36.4% | 18.5 |
| Allen Robinson II | $6,900 | 11.5 | 40.1% | 0.32 | 35.3% | 17.5 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,600 | 11.4 | 51.4% | 0.82 | 37.0% | 17.8 |
| Stefon Diggs | $6,000 | 11.4 | 46.1% | 0.53 | 32.9% | 16.8 |
| Alshon Jeffery | $6,700 | 11.2 | 38.3% | 0.27 | 30.5% | 16.2 |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,500 | 10.9 | 41.1% | 0.37 | 32.6% | 17.0 |
| Courtland Sutton | $5,700 | 10.8 | 45.6% | 0.50 | 29.0% | 16.0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $6,300 | 10.8 | 40.0% | 0.34 | 28.4% | 15.8 |
| Josh Gordon | $6,200 | 10.4 | 39.8% | 0.32 | 28.1% | 15.5 |
| DJ Moore | $5,900 | 10.4 | 43.0% | 0.42 | 29.2% | 16.0 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,400 | 10.2 | 49.1% | 0.57 | 27.0% | 15.5 |
| Tyrell Williams | $5,900 | 10.1 | 44.3% | 0.45 | 29.3% | 15.8 |
| Will Fuller V | $5,700 | 9.9 | 40.9% | 0.39 | 23.6% | 14.7 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,800 | 9.7 | 42.1% | 0.38 | 25.7% | 15.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,500 | 9.6 | 44.4% | 0.44 | 24.1% | 14.6 |
| Geronimo Allison | $5,600 | 9.6 | 43.1% | 0.36 | 22.9% | 14.7 |
| Calvin Ridley | $5,400 | 9.5 | 44.9% | 0.50 | 26.9% | 15.5 |
| John Brown | $5,500 | 9.5 | 42.0% | 0.42 | 23.4% | 14.7 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $5,800 | 9.1 | 37.5% | 0.27 | 21.5% | 14.3 |
| Auden Tate | $5,300 | 9.0 | 40.5% | 0.34 | 18.4% | 13.7 |
| Golden Tate | $4,500 | 9.0 | 51.2% | 0.76 | 23.3% | 14.6 |
| Diontae Johnson | $5,000 | 8.9 | 45.3% | 0.54 | 22.4% | 14.2 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,500 | 8.9 | 39.5% | 0.32 | 21.5% | 14.1 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,500 | 8.8 | 38.8% | 0.35 | 21.6% | 14.0 |
| Phillip Dorsett II | $5,400 | 8.8 | 37.3% | 0.34 | 18.7% | 13.4 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,000 | 8.6 | 28.1% | 0.11 | 14.5% | 12.6 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $5,900 | 8.6 | 34.9% | 0.24 | 21.2% | 14.0 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,400 | 8.3 | 25.2% | 0.10 | 16.0% | 12.8 |
| KeeSean Johnson | $4,600 | 8.2 | 47.0% | 0.59 | 19.3% | 13.6 |
| Mike Williams | $6,100 | 8.2 | 23.7% | 0.06 | 12.2% | 11.8 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,300 | 8.2 | 35.6% | 0.27 | 17.1% | 13.1 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,500 | 7.7 | 27.9% | 0.13 | 9.8% | 11.6 |
Cash-Game Standouts
The simulations love Keenan Allen, giving him the best median value and boom-to-bust ratio of any wide receiver in a bounce-back spot against the Denver Broncos. After Allen, the best bets to return 2x value or better are Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Thomas, Golden Tate, Tyler Boyd, Julian Edelman, and Marquise Brown. With Tate at just $4,500, he should be more or less a lock for cash games this weekend. The simulations are higher on Michael Thomas than I am, but Tate, Boyd, and Edelman make for an inexpensive, high-target-floor trio.
Tournament Standouts
Spending up at receiver can always lead to massive point totals from your wideouts, and the players most likely to go for 20-plus FanDuel points are Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Amari Cooper.
Ownership is a massive factor for tournament wide receivers, but we won't get into that here. A few interesting cheaper plays graded out well for tournament purposes. If we use 75th-percentile outcomes -- so realistic ceiling games -- rather than the most likely outcomes, KeeSean Johnson jumps to sixth among wide receivers at his tag of $4,600. Calvin Ridley ($5,400), Marquise Brown ($5,400), and Diontae Johnson ($5,000) also rank top 10 when examining the 75th-percentile scores relative to salary.
Tight Ends
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | $6,600 | 12.6 | 44.9% | 1.11 | 37.6% | 18.2 |
| Evan Engram | $6,300 | 11.4 | 46.3% | 1.17 | 35.1% | 17.6 |
| Darren Waller | $6,400 | 11.2 | 39.9% | 0.90 | 29.6% | 16.0 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,100 | 10.5 | 40.8% | 0.94 | 27.7% | 15.8 |
| Austin Hooper | $6,700 | 9.7 | 32.8% | 0.65 | 25.7% | 15.2 |
| Greg Olsen | $5,700 | 9.0 | 39.4% | 0.86 | 21.1% | 14.2 |
| Delanie Walker | $5,300 | 7.8 | 34.1% | 0.66 | 13.5% | 12.5 |
| Jimmy Graham | $5,500 | 7.8 | 31.3% | 0.60 | 13.5% | 12.2 |
| O.J. Howard | $5,400 | 7.5 | 29.9% | 0.55 | 10.5% | 11.7 |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,600 | 7.4 | 40.3% | 0.91 | 11.7% | 11.9 |
| Jared Cook | $5,300 | 6.7 | 27.7% | 0.48 | 10.3% | 11.3 |
| Jason Witten | $5,000 | 6.4 | 27.9% | 0.47 | 9.6% | 10.4 |
| Vance McDonald | $5,500 | 5.5 | 13.7% | 0.19 | 3.0% | 8.9 |
| Noah Fant | $4,900 | 5.5 | 23.2% | 0.37 | 4.4% | 9.5 |
| Trey Burton | $4,800 | 5.5 | 27.2% | 0.46 | 7.6% | 10.1 |
| Vernon Davis | $4,800 | 5.5 | 23.2% | 0.38 | 3.8% | 9.3 |
| Jordan Reed | $4,500 | 5.4 | 21.0% | 0.34 | 2.0% | 8.4 |
| Jordan Akins | $4,800 | 5.2 | 19.0% | 0.29 | 2.6% | 8.6 |
Cash-Game Standouts
I can't tell if tight end is good or bad this week from a holistic perspective. Without Travis Kelce's and George Kittle's slate-changing potential, we can try to spend down. The most likely players to return 2x value come from various pricing ranges Evan Engram ($6,300), Zach Ertz ($6,600), Mark Andrews ($6,100), Tyler Eifert ($4,600), Darren Waller ($6,400), and Greg Olsen ($5,700).
Tournament Standouts
It's really the same six at the top if we look at 75th-percentile outcomes. We can include the pricey Austin Hooper ($6,700) as well as Delanie Walker ($5,300) and Jimmy Graham ($5,500) for their ceiling projections, but the tight end pool worth using is quite shallow this week, based on the simulations.
