NFL Weather Report: Week 6

We got about everything we could ask for in Week 5 -- an entertaining Thursday night game and five games with more than 50-point totals. Even both primetime games had their own levels of intrigue as the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense was stymied by the Indianapolis Colts' man coverage, and the Cleveland Browns got sent back to Ohio with only three points while the San Francisco 49ers remain undefeated.

However, there were three games that featured light rain conditions. But as discussed in the Week 5 report, the individual game environments set up as the primary factors for each game. Luckily, the weather took a back seat.

Now, we turn to Week 6.

The week has already kicked off with a game impacted by the weather. The New York Giants kicked off the week into 15-17 miles per hour (MPH) winds. The stadium, sitting at a 162.2-degree azimuth (pointed northwest), created a cross-breeze. Sideline reports noted offenses adjusting to the weather throughout the evening with limited deep passes attempted. While this wind speed range is more of a mild concern, the open section at the stadium’s northeast end allows the breeze pattern to enter the field of play. Stadiums with this design will be accounted for in future reports.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the games ahead.

Overview

Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 6.

Games Impacted by Wind

Seattle Seahawks (23.75-point implied total) at Cleveland Browns (22.25)

The Seahawks have the extra time to prepare coming off of Week 5’s Thursday Night Football, but they are traveling east to Cleveland to face the Browns. The game total still sits at 46 (fourth-highest on the slate), indicating that bettors do not believe the weather will significantly impact the game. History and small sample sizes would agree.

Neither quarterback has had their performance hampered by high winds. Russell Wilson has scored an average of 21.5 fantasy points in games with winds over 15 MPH. While his pass attempts in those games dipped below their seasonal average by 17.4%, he was still able to maintain his touchdown efficiency. Wilson already ranks third in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) for this season, but he is facing a team in the top half top half of the league in pass D, per our metrics.

On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield may be in store for a bounce-back game. In his lone game with wind speeds in this range (Week 10 versus Kansas City), he scored 17.9 fantasy points and finished the week as the QB13. But that's a one-game sample, and 2019 Baker has not looked like 2018 Baker. His overall Passing NEP is a woeful -15.33, and he ranks 34th in Passing Success Rate. Luckily, Seattle is 23rd in pass defense, according to our numbers, and has allowed an average 17.1 fantasy points to quarterbacks. Mayfield’s yet to hit that mark this season.

The Browns’ stadium sits at a 55.7-degree azimuth (pointed northeast). It’s enclosed, only allowing the wind across the top of the stadium, and the wind is headed southwest. The direction lessens the chance of a cross-breeze, which should require only minor adjustments throughout the game. With this setup, the weather should not play a significant role in this game as the Browns look to turn their offense around in Week 6.

Games Impacted by Rain

Washington (22.75-point implied total) at Miami Dolphins (19.25)

The 20% chance of rain coupled with the lack of any noticeable precipitation throughout the game suggests there will be a drizzle (< .01” inches per hour), at most, throughout the game.

Interim coach Bill Callahan has already emphasized his desire to run the ball behind on a team ranked 21st in running, per our metrics. The hope is that Adrian Peterson can help control the game. Josh Rosen, on the opposite side of the ball, has struggled behind Miami’s offensive line and still sits toward the bottom of the league in Passing NEP (-15.78). The game total is already the second-lowest on the slate, making weather (even if it was a concern) a secondary factor in this contest.

Note: Forecasts suggest a 50% chance of light rain for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Carolina Panthers London game with the chance of showers reducing as the game continues. However, no data on the precipitation rate is available. The limited data suggests no fantasy impacts are anticipated at this time and fantasy managers are to proceed as normal.