4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 6
Week 6 in the NFL presents some really fun matchups and game stacks to target. There are currently three games implied to go over the 50-point threshold on the FanDuel main slate, including 15 teams that are projected to score 21-plus points.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player ownership projections.
Kicking off the stacks to target in Week 6, we have Baltimore Ravens running back Mark Ingram stacked up with their defense. The Ravens are playing the Cincinnati Bengals at home and enter the main slate with the highest implied total (29.75) and are the largest favorites (-12.0) of any team. This game script sets up nicely for Ingram and the Ravens D/ST as a massive home favorite.
Ingram should have his way with a Bengals' defense that has allowed 0.17 Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play -- which ranks as the fourth worst D across the league. Our projections have Ingram scoring 0.72 rushing touchdowns this week, the second-most among all running backs. With an implied team total of almost 30 points, Ingram could very well find himself scoring multiple touchdowns. He’s already reached the end zone six times in five games this season, averaging 1.20 rushing touchdowns per game.
I like stacking Ingram up with the Ravens D/ST as the Bengals currently sport the slate's lowest implied total (17.75). This Ravens defense has struggled to start the 2019 season, but this is a “get right” spot for them. The Bengals have turned the ball over a total of 10 times already this season, tied for the fifth most across the league. Of those 10 turnovers, seven of them have come while the Bengals were playing on the road, compared to three turnovers while playing at home.
Look for both the Ravens' offense and defense to find their game again this week against a struggling Cincy team.
The most common stacks you’ll likely find in the game between the Miami Dolphins and Washington this week will contain players on the Washington side of the ball. I’m going to go a little contrarian to that and run with a couple of Miami players. Specifically, I like the stacking option of Josh Rosen and DeVante Parker.
The Dolphins are coming off their Week 5 bye and will have had an extra week to prepare against a Washington team that has been arguably just as bad as the Dolphins have been this year -- both teams rank in the bottom-eight of our team rankings in terms of overall offensive and defensive rating. Rosen will have his first friendly matchup of the season against a Washington D that ranks 28th against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. They’ve allowed 2.6 touchdown passes per game to start this year, the second most across the league. If there is a game for Rosen to explode this season, it’s this one right here.
Parker and Rosen have found an immediate connection since Rosen took over the starting quarterback job in Week 3 against the Dallas Cowboys. In their two full games together this season, Rosen has targeted Parker 10 times, and they’ve hooked up for 7 receptions, 126 receiving yards and one touchdown. Per Next Gen Stats, Parker leads his team with a 33.24% share of the team’s air yards. He also paces the entire league in average targeted air tards, with 19.9 air yards per target.
Those numbers could translate to a massive game for Parker versus a Washington secondary that has been thrashed all year.
Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals
I like two different game stacks this week, with the first being between the Atlanta Falcons-Arizona Cardinals game. You can stack this game up multiple ways, but my favorite way is with Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan and his tight end, Austin Hooper, and then running it back with Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. I initially wanted to run it back with Christian Kirk, but due to his ankle injury, we are uncertain if he’s going to play this week (as of Friday).
Stacking Ryan with Hooper this week will likely be one of the most popular stacks -- and rightfully so. Per Pro Football Reference, the Cardinals' defense has allowed 20.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends -- the most in the NFL. They’ve also allowed the fourth most FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks (23.2), making the Ryan-Hooper pairing a no-brainer. Per our projections, we currently have Ryan expected to score 21.3 FanDuel points, the third most of any quarterback, and Hooper expected to score 10.2 FanDuel points, the fifth most of any tight end. With shootout potential against the Cardinals, both Ryan and Hooper have a ceiling that goes well beyond those numbers.
The Ryan-Hooper connection has been at it’s best this season. Hooper ranks second on the Falcons team in terms of targets (42), just two behind star wide receiver Julio Jones. Hooper is also tied for first on the team for catch rate (81%) as he’s reeled in 34 of his 42 targets. Look for these two to build on their rapport this week against a Cardinals defense that has been tortured by tight ends all season.
As I mentioned above, I initially liked running this stack back with Kirk but pivoted off him to Fitzgerald due to Kirk dealing with an ankle injury. Upon digging deeper into this game, it actually made sense to pivot off of Kirk to Fitzgerald based off of their matchup potential. Per PFF’s wide receiver/cornerback matchup chart, Fitzgerald is currently expected to match up against Cardinals slot cornerback Damontae Kazee, and he currently has a 27% advantage over him. That ranks fifth-best across all wide receiver/cornerback matchups on the FanDuel main slate. Kazee is currently ranked 95th of 105 qualified cornerbacks in 2019.
Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans
My favorite stack for Week 6 is the game stack between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans. This game has shootout written all over it and could be one of the most thrilling games of the entire 2019 season. Two high-powered offenses who lack defensive responsibility? Sign me up!
Similar to the Falcons-Cardinals game stack, you can stack up this game in multiple ways. My favorite route involves Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes stacked up with his wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
While it shouldn’t take much convincing to roster Mahomes, you will have to pay up for him to be in your lineup. He’s the most expensive quarterback on FanDuel at $9,200, which is $800 more than the next quarterback, Deshaun Watson. If you can afford Mahomes this week, he is set to smash a Texans defense that just allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 330 yards and three touchdowns last week.
Hill has yet to see the field since going down with a clavicle injury back in Week 1, but he is trending towards playing this Sunday. Should he be a full-go in this game, he’ll be primed for a big day as we currently have him projected to be the highest-scoring wide receiver on the main slate as well as the top point-per-dollar wideout. Hill is set to face Texans cornerback Lonnie Johnson Jr. this week, and he has a 29% advantage over him, per PFF. Hill’s 4.24 40-yard dash speed is going to cause problems for Johnson, who runs a 4.52 40.
Run this game stack back with Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has been off to a slow start this year by his elite standards but is due for some positive regression.
Hopkins leads his team with a 28.31% target share but has only been targeted twice in the red zone (10.53% of the team’s targets). In 2018, Hopkins was third among all receivers with 24 red zone targets, good for a team-high 35% share of Houston's targets inside the 20. We have Hopkins projected to for 9.77 targets and 0.58 receiving touchdowns against the Chiefs. Should the Texans end playing from behind like they’re projected to in this game, look for them to lean on Hopkins to catch up.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)