15 Fantasy Football Transactions for Week 10
This is the time of year where patience can pay off.
If you held onto Devin Singletary through his injury, you were rewarded with not only a big Week 9, but a potential high-volume running back for the rest of the season. Maybe you weren't a fantasy football manager who sold off Damien Williams -- he played 76% of Kansas City's snaps yesterday, so his arrow is pointing up, too.
And perhaps you believed in Ronald Jones. If so, you're probably feeling pretty good today.
Hold or Buy Ronald Jones
Sunday's performance for Ronald Jones was a big one. Not just because he was able to tally 82 total yards and a score, but because his peripherals looked better than we've seen all season long.
Against the Seahawks, Jones saw 78.3% of the Buccaneers' running back rushes, when his highest single-game share of the season entering the game was 65.5%. He ended with a 4.7% target share, a mark he's only hit twice this year. And that was while running 18 routes, per Pro Football Focus. That, too, was a season high.
Most importantly, Jones played 53% of Tampa Bay's snaps. That's the best mark of the year for him, and it's the highest snap share for any Buccaneers running back since Week 2.
There's some concern about how effective the Bucs can be running the ball and utilizing their running backs as receivers, but this Week 9 game against Seattle was nothing but good for Ronald Jones. If the manager in your league who has Jones isn't much of a believer, it's not a bad idea to propose something for him.
Buy Davante Adams
Davante Adams' return to the field ended with a Packers loss and just 41 yards receiving, but it also brought a nice buy-low opportunity. In the game, Adams saw a high 31.4% target share. In his five active games this year, he's dipped below a 26.5% target share just once. He's going to be fed, and that's the first hurdle in becoming a fantasy football stud.
Adams also, surprisingly, hasn't found the end zone this season. We know yards correlate strongly to touchdowns, and based on his 419 receiving yards, when you look at how wide receivers have scored with that type of receiving yardage over the last five years, he should have about 2.6 scores. That makes him one of the biggest positive touchdown regression candidates in football.
Sell Derrick Henry
Henry is like a late-season episode of How I Met Your Mother. He's fine. He'll likely give you RB2 numbers from here on out given the state of the running back position, but considering his lack of receiving usage, there's not a whole lot of upside unless we see a bonkers, outlier-type run like we witnessed at the end of last year.
He now has eight total touchdowns this year, but based on his yardage totals, he should have closer to five. And you may think he'll outperform the yards to touchdowns conversion because of the work he'll see at the goal line, but Henry's only had five carries from within the five-yard line this year, tying him for 26th in the NFL within the category.
And that's because the Titans offense isn't very good. They rank seventh-worst in yards per drive and, as a result of not moving the ball exceptionally well, they've run the fourth-fewest red zone plays in football.
Considering Henry has a target share south of 7%, we know his upside is likely to come in the form of rushing yards and touchdowns. If the latter will be harder to come by because of the offense he's in, then, well, that's why he's a sell.
Now, it should be noted that Tennessee gets Kansas City this week, creating a good matchup for Henry on paper. If you want to wait to sell him, it's understandable, but Henry's value will also diminish if he doesn't perform.
And speaking of schedules, do keep in mind that the Titans get the Texans and Saints during the fantasy football playoffs in Weeks 15 and 16. At this time, both Houston and New Orleans rank in the top-eight in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. Henry could struggle when you need him most.
Buy Marquise Brown
We saw Marquise Brown for the first time since Week 5 on Sunday night, and while he didn't post an incredible fantasy line, he did look like his explosive self when the ball was in his hands. Don't forget, when Brown was healthy across the first five games of the season, his target share never dipped below 17.9% in a single contest. It was 17.3% on Sunday night, but Brown was also returning from injury and facing one of the best secondaries in football. He also only played 57% of Baltimore's snaps, when his snap share was reaching the 80% range before the injury.
Add DeVante Parker
From Weeks 1 through 6, the Dolphins were averaging just 21.6 yards per drive (second-worst in football, ahead of only the Jets), and they were scoring on 16.7% of their drives. That was the second-lowest rate in the NFL, too.
And then Ryan Fitzpatrick took over again. Over the last three weeks with the bearded veteran under center, Miami's ranked 11th from the bottom in yards per drive, improving their 21.6 average to 29.5. And they've scored on 29.0% of their drives as a result.
Wideouts Preston Williams and DeVante Parker have both benefited. Across the first six weeks of the season, Parker and Williams finished as top-20 wide receivers in weekly scoring a grand total of one time while finishing in the top-30 only twice.
Over the last three weeks, the duo has accumulated three top-20 performances and four (almost five) top-30 ones. Both players are averaging about a 23.5% target share per game during this time.
Unfortunately, Williams is now done for the year due to a knee injury, but the data above helps shed light to the opportunity in Miami's offense. That's why, if Parker is on the waiver wire, you should snag him.
Sell Adrian Peterson
Since Bill Callahan was named interim head coach for Washington, Adrian Peterson has averaged 95.6 rushing yards on nearly 19 attempts per game. Washington's handed him the ball on at least 80% of the team's running back carries in every Callahan-coached game he's played in.
In turn, Peterson's ranked as a top-20 running back in weekly PPR scoring in three of four games under Callahan.
Peterson's got some issues, though.
First off, he's still not being heavily utilized as a receiver -- he's averaging just a little over a target per game since the coaching change. Second, Peterson is giving fantasy managers a floor rather than a ceiling. Sure, he's been consistent, but even with that consistency, there've been 26 running backs with at least two games played over this timeframe who've averaged more PPR points per game than Peterson.
And it's largely due to not just the lack of receiving involvement, but the lack of scoring. Peterson still hasn't found the end zone under Callahan. That's usually a sign for positive regression -- he's gotten a good number of yards on the ground over the last month, after all -- but that idea isn't as easy to buy into when the player we're talking about is playing in an abysmal offense. Washington's averaging fewer than nine points per game over their last four. They haven't had the easiest schedule, but that's still not great, Bob!
Oh, and there's this guy named Derrius Guice who could be returning soon.
Add Derrius Guice
As I noted, Washington isn't the best place for running backs to thrive. But Derruis Guice is still available in two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues, and he's on track to return in Week 11.
Guice presents more upside than Peterson because there's a chance they simply feature him as the team's workhorse. Meaning, unlike Peterson, Guice could see more work as a receiver. Currently, Wendell Smallwood has taken on some of that work, generating five targets over the last two weeks.
It's hard to sell Guice as a league-winning add considering the offense he'll be playing in, but he should definitely be rostered.
Buy D.J. Chark
Fantasy managers may be questioning the Jacksonville passing attack after a bad performance by Gardner Minshew on Sunday in London, so it could be an opportunity to buy the best piece in said attack, D.J. Chark.
Chark is overperming in the touchdown column given his yardage total -- he has 1.8 more touchdowns than he should have -- but there's so much to like about his situation. He's seen over 23% of Jacksonville's targets this year, and he's hit a 20% target share in 5 of his last 6 games.
And the schedule is hot for this Jaguars offense down the stretch. They still get to face Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Oakland, with the latter two teams facing off against the Jags during Weeks 15 and 16, otherwise known as the fantasy football playoffs. Those two teams are allowing the fourth-most and second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year, respectively.
If you're feeling good about your chance to make the playoffs, Chark is an easy go-to. But he should help teams get there, too, considering his role in the Jacksonville offense.
Buy D.J. Moore
Another D.J. to trade for this week is D.J. Moore, who's been heavily involved in the Carolina offense over his last four contests -- his lowest single-game target share over this time period is 24.3%. He's seeing volume, but he hasn't provided high-end numbers because he hasn't scored since Week 3. His 564 receiving yards, though, tell us that he should have 2.4 more touchdowns than he has. Only seven skill players have a larger discrepancy between the number of touchdowns they've scored and the number they should have scored based on their yardage totals.
Add Zach Pascal
With T.Y. Hilton sidelined, Zach Pascal stepped in for Indianapolis on Sunday and saw 20% of the team's targets, a target share that led the team. He was productive, too, catching 5 of his 6 targets for 75 yards and a score. Hilton is expected to miss a few weeks -- or at least one or two more -- making Pascal a good waiver wire add for wide receiver-needy teams.
Sell Jamaal Williams
Since Jamaal Williams returned from his brutal concussion in Week 4 -- so the last four weeks -- he's ranked as the RB4 in PPR points per game at the running back position. During this time, he's hit a 50% snap share just once.
That alone screams, "You probably should be looking to sell this player right now!" And it's true: you should. Williams has been fortunate to have scored at least once in each of those games. And, now, as you'd probably guess, he's a big negative touchdown regression candidate -- his yardage total dictates that he should have 3.6 fewer touchdowns than he currently has.
It'd be one thing if Williams was leading the backfield in snaps, or if he was seeing a consistent target share above 15% or 20%. That hasn't been the case. As I noted, he's rarely hitting the 50% snap share mark, and he's been below a 10% target share in two of his last four contests.
Add Gus Edwards
This transaction is mostly to say, "Add your handcuffs." Gus Edwards is one who should be rostered, as the Ravens rank 11th in the league in fantasy points scored at the running back position. But above Edwards are players like Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt, and Rashaad Penny. They're more valuable on your roster than a random wide receiver who'll maybe get you 50 yards during a fill-in week. You can find that off the waiver wire pretty easily.
Buy Allen Robinson
It doesn't feel good targeting a Mitch Trubisky receiver in a trade, I know. And, yes, this Bears offense may not get any better in 2019. But it's really difficult to ignore the fact that buying Allen Robinson now means trading for him at a low point, and it's harder to ignore his amazing peripherals.
He caught just one pass for six yards in a great matchup on Sunday, but he still saw over 23% of Chicago's targets. He's now hit a 21% target share in every single game this year, something only Michael Thomas can say he's done as well.
And, realistically, things do look fine for Chicago schedule-wise, especially in the fantasy playoffs, where they'll face Green Bay and Kansas City. There could be a lot of passing for the Bears in those games which, in turn, will help Robinson.
Add Ryan Tannehill
There are a lot of byes this week, which really limits the streaming potential in fantasy football, especially at quarterback. Ryan Tannehill looks to be the best off-the-waiver-wire play, as the Titans are going up against the Chiefs in a game where Patrick Mahomes could be back. If that's the case -- and, to be honest, even if it's not -- it could force Tennessee away from their running ways. Kansas City's allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing passers this year, and three of the last four quarterbacks they've faced have performed above their season-long average.
Add the Indianapolis Colts Defense
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Colts are 10.5-point favorites this weekend at home against Miami. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown at least one interception in all but one start this season (with that start coming against the Jets this past week), and he's taken four sacks in each of his last two. Despite an average performance on Sunday, the Dolphins are still being sacked at the third-highest rate in football. Available in 63% of Yahoo! leagues, the Colts are an easy pick this week as a defensive streamer.