2019 NFL Power Rankings: Week 10
After an impressive win over the (formerly) undefeated New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens found themselves taking the biggest leap forward in our rankings, while the Philadelphia Eagles made a big jump as well. After each taking a tough loss on the road, the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers were among the teams to fall the most in our Power Rankings.
Here are our Week 10 NFL Power Rankings:
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | -17.36 | 1-7 | 0.00% | 30 | 32 | 0 |
| 31 | New York Jets | -12.68 | 1-7 | 0.00% | 32 | 18 | -1 |
| 30 | Washington Redskins | -8.81 | 1-8 | 0.00% | 28 | 27 | -2 |
| 29 | Cincinnati Bengals | -8.28 | 0-8 | 0.00% | 24 | 28 | 0 |
| 28 | New York Giants | -6.87 | 2-7 | 0.10% | 29 | 20 | -1 |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals | -6.61 | 3-5-1 | 0.10% | 14 | 30 | 4 |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | -6.44 | 2-6 | 1.50% | 25 | 24 | -2 |
| 25 | Atlanta Falcons | -5.57 | 1-7 | 0.00% | 8 | 31 | 1 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | -4.13 | 3-4-1 | 2.40% | 17 | 25 | -2 |
| 23 | Buffalo Bills | -3.36 | 6-2 | 77.50% | 20 | 21 | 0 |
After a tightly contested game on Thursday Night Football against our top-ranked San Francisco 49ers, the Arizona Cardinals find themselves climbing up our rankings this week. While they did end up losing this contest 28-25, they managed to put up a solid fight against the only remaining undefeated team in the league.
Kyler Murray had one of his best performances in his short NFL career last week, finishing the game with a 130.7 passer rating – his best passer rating all season. He also completed 70.7% of his passes while averaging 10.0 yards per pass attempt – also his highest all season. The said, the average was significantly raised by an 88-yard yard touchdown pass to Andy Isabella, Murray showed he was capable completing multiple types of passes against one of the league’s best secondaries.
While the Cardinals offense continues to improve, their defense continues to plunder. Arizona’s defense is allowing 27.9 points per game – the fifth-most across the league – and ranks 30th overall in total defense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics.
It’s been a rough season so far for the Cleveland Browns, as their record fell to 2-6 after losing to the Denver Broncos on the road last week. They find themselves falling again in our Power Rankings and now have less than a 2.0% chance of making the playoffs this season. Both the Browns offense and defense have struggled to find consistency this season, both ranking in the bottom-ten in Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play.
The one thing the Browns do have going for them is their schedule over the remaining eight weeks of the regular season. Per TeamRankings, the Browns currently have the second-easiest schedule to close out the 2019 season. They’ll face the Cincinnati Bengals twice, along with the Miami Dolphins, and Arizona Cardinals to cap off their season – four games against teams who all currently rank below the Browns.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Chicago Bears | -2.69 | 3-5 | 1.30% | 31 | 4 | -3 |
| 21 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -1.75 | 4-5 | 9.70% | 22 | 14 | -3 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | -1.6 | 4-5 | 5.00% | 12 | 26 | 5 |
| 19 | Oakland Raiders | -1.51 | 4-4 | 25.00% | 4 | 29 | 2 |
| 18 | Tennessee Titans | -0.78 | 4-5 | 5.30% | 27 | 6 | -2 |
| 17 | Denver Broncos | -0.73 | 3-6 | 1.60% | 26 | 7 | -4 |
| 16 | Carolina Panthers | 0.08 | 5-3 | 20.30% | 23 | 9 | -2 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.18 | 5-4 | 47.80% | 18 | 16 | 5 |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.54 | 7-2 | 68.80% | 9 | 23 | 3 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.81 | 2-6 | 0.40% | 13 | 17 | -2 |
One team who took a big leap in our rankings this week was the Los Angeles Chargers. They’ve won two big games in a row against the Chicago Bears on the road and the Green Bay Packers at home. While they are only considered to have a 5.0% chance of making the playoffs, they are only two wins out of being in a wild-card position.
The Chargers' offense has had a bit of an up and down year, but had one of their most balanced games against the Packers in Week . Philip Rivers completed 75% of his passes and threw for 294 yards, while the rushing game – led by both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler – ran for 159 rushing yards. Per our numbers, the Chargers' offense currently ranks 12th in overall offense.
Joey Bosa has been a menace for this Chargers defense over the past three games. In those games he has racked up 17 total tackles, 5.5 sacks, and one forced fumble. While the Chargers defense as a whole has struggled this season, Bosa has been a rock to hold them down.
The Philadelphia Eagles find themselves climbing up our rankings again this week after beating the Chicago Bears for their second straight win. This is another team that has started to find some balance in their game, both offensively and defensively.
Zach Ertz had himself a season-high in both receptions and receiving yards, after totaling 9 receptions for 103 yards and 1 touchdown against the Bears. He and Carson Wentz seemed to find their old chemistry in this contest, a trend the Eagles should focus on to continue their recent success.
The Eagles have a tough test after the bye against the New England Patriots. The Patriots are coming off of their first loss of the season last week to the Baltimore Ravens and should have a chip on their shoulder in this game. If the Eagles go on to win their third straight game after this week, expect them to continue climbing in our Power Rankings.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts | 1.18 | 5-3 | 54.80% | 15 | 15 | 3 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Rams | 2.74 | 5-3 | 30.90% | 16 | 11 | -1 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.82 | 4-4 | 55.50% | 21 | 3 | -1 |
| 9 | Houston Texans | 5.79 | 6-3 | 80.10% | 7 | 13 | -1 |
| 8 | Dallas Cowboys | 6.16 | 5-3 | 63.20% | 2 | 19 | -1 |
| 7 | Minnesota Vikings | 6.61 | 6-3 | 74.80% | 10 | 5 | -3 |
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | 6.98 | 7-2 | 93.00% | 5 | 10 | -3 |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 7.3 | 6-2 | 92.80% | 1 | 22 | 7 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.43 | 6-3 | 91.60% | 3 | 12 | 2 |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | 7.65 | 7-1 | 98.60% | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 11.42 | 8-1 | 99.50% | 19 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 15.05 | 8-0 | 98.40% | 11 | 1 | 0 |
After going on a four-game win streak from Weeks 5 through 8, the Minnesota Vikings streak came to an end at Arrowhead against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9. The Vikings have looked like one of the league’s most balanced teams throughout this season but have certainly had some flaws -- most notably with their rushing defense.
While the Vikings rush defense still ranks inside the top-10 in the league -- in terms of Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play --, they have been one of Minnesota's biggest weaknesses in this well-balanced team. Kansas City running back Damien Williams ran for 125 rushing yards on just 12 carries last week, exploiting some of those weaknesses within this defense.
The Vikings have one of the best odds to make the playoffs this season, but their schedule to finish the 2019 season is not the friendliest. Over the last eight weeks of the regular season, they’ll have the 12th-hardest remaining schedule.
After beating the undefeated New England Patriots last week on Sunday Night Football, the Baltimore Ravens climbed seven spots in our Power Rankings. The Ravens offense has been a thrill to watch this season, and are currently the top-ranked offense across the league, per our metrics. Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson has been tremendous in his second year as a pro, particularly rushing the ball. Jackson has rushed the ball for an average of 79.6 yards per game, which ranks inside the top-10 across the league. He also leads the league with 6.4 yards per rush attempt.
Baltimore has now won four straight games and have seen their defense improve along the way. Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Baltimore Ravens defense ranked dead last in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play back in Week 5. Just five weeks later, Baltimore's defense has jumped up 10 spots in those rankings.
