Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 12
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | $7,900 | 21.4 | 35.5% | 1.56 | 29.5% | 25.9 |
| Russell Wilson | $8,200 | 20.1 | 27.7% | 0.98 | 26.3% | 25.4 |
| Jameis Winston | $7,600 | 19.7 | 34.3% | 1.24 | 24.4% | 24.8 |
| Drew Brees | $8,500 | 19.5 | 21.3% | 0.57 | 23.0% | 24.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | $7,500 | 18.5 | 26.5% | 0.76 | 16.2% | 22.8 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,300 | 18.0 | 31.7% | 1.00 | 17.1% | 23.2 |
| Tom Brady | $7,700 | 17.8 | 23.3% | 0.61 | 17.1% | 22.7 |
| Josh Allen | $7,800 | 17.6 | 20.9% | 0.52 | 15.5% | 22.7 |
| Derek Carr | $7,400 | 17.2 | 22.7% | 0.55 | 12.4% | 21.6 |
| Dak Prescott | $8,100 | 16.9 | 17.0% | 0.38 | 14.0% | 22.0 |
| Jeff Driskel | $7,300 | 16.7 | 23.7% | 0.59 | 12.5% | 21.6 |
| Sam Darnold | $7,400 | 16.3 | 22.5% | 0.52 | 13.0% | 21.4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,100 | 16.2 | 23.9% | 0.61 | 10.5% | 21.1 |
| Nick Foles | $7,200 | 15.4 | 20.4% | 0.44 | 10.3% | 20.3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $7,000 | 15.3 | 22.8% | 0.50 | 10.7% | 20.3 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7,100 | 14.9 | 21.4% | 0.49 | 9.6% | 20.3 |
| Mason Rudolph | $6,900 | 14.9 | 20.5% | 0.46 | 8.7% | 19.7 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,500 | 14.7 | 12.8% | 0.24 | 7.6% | 19.5 |
| Kyle Allen | $6,600 | 14.3 | 23.1% | 0.55 | 7.9% | 19.3 |
| Dwayne Haskins Jr. | $6,700 | 13.4 | 19.1% | 0.40 | 6.0% | 18.9 |
| Brandon Allen | $6,600 | 12.5 | 16.5% | 0.31 | 4.2% | 17.8 |
| Ryan Finley | $6,300 | 12.2 | 18.3% | 0.34 | 4.0% | 16.8 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Matt Ryan ($7,900) rates out with -- by far -- the best boom/bust marks of the week, meaning he's got a high floor and a high ceiling in a matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' funnel defense. Jameis Winston ($7,600) rates out second in that metric, though the Atlanta Falcons' defense has performed like a top-10 unit the past two weeks since changing play-callers.
Carson Wentz ($7,300) and Russell Wilson ($8,200) grade out similarly in boom/bust ratio in a game against one another. I talked this week on the Heat Check about pace concerns between two run-heavy offenses in that game, but safe plays at quarterback are quite elusive.
Baker Mayfield ($7,500) is a tier above the rest in a matchup against the Miami Dolphins' 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense, based on numberFire's metrics.
Tournament Standouts
Those five passers rate out with the best value marks when using the 75th-percentile outcomes in the simulations. After them, it's Ryan Tannehill ($7,100), Jeff Driskel ($7,300), Tom Brady ($7,700), Kyle Allen ($6,600), and Mitchell Trubisky ($7,000).
The most likely passers to top 25 FanDuel points: Ryan, Wilson, Winston, Drew Brees ($8,500), Wentz.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
20+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $10,500 | 20.2 | 11.6% | 0.21 | 49.4% | 26.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | $8,300 | 19.1 | 24.4% | 0.63 | 45.9% | 24.7 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,200 | 17.3 | 20.3% | 0.47 | 39.4% | 23.1 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,400 | 16.2 | 15.2% | 0.29 | 32.3% | 22.5 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,000 | 16.1 | 29.6% | 0.74 | 34.9% | 22.0 |
| Saquon Barkley | $7,900 | 15.9 | 18.5% | 0.36 | 31.8% | 21.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | $8,000 | 15.7 | 16.6% | 0.31 | 30.4% | 21.3 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,100 | 14.9 | 11.6% | 0.20 | 25.4% | 20.1 |
| Chris Carson | $7,700 | 14.7 | 13.4% | 0.25 | 24.1% | 19.8 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $7,300 | 14.7 | 19.1% | 0.39 | 25.4% | 20.2 |
| Jaylen Samuels | $6,900 | 13.7 | 16.0% | 0.31 | 18.5% | 18.4 |
| David Montgomery | $6,600 | 12.5 | 15.0% | 0.28 | 14.4% | 17.4 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,700 | 12.2 | 11.9% | 0.20 | 12.1% | 16.7 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,300 | 11.8 | 15.5% | 0.29 | 11.7% | 16.7 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,300 | 11.3 | 13.7% | 0.24 | 11.0% | 15.8 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,600 | 10.9 | 16.0% | 0.29 | 6.3% | 14.5 |
| James White | $6,100 | 10.8 | 14.3% | 0.26 | 9.8% | 15.2 |
| Brian Hill | $5,500 | 10.6 | 18.6% | 0.36 | 7.3% | 15.2 |
| Miles Sanders | $5,600 | 10.6 | 15.6% | 0.30 | 5.3% | 14.7 |
| Sony Michel | $6,300 | 10.0 | 9.4% | 0.14 | 7.3% | 14.2 |
| Ronald Jones II | $6,000 | 9.7 | 8.2% | 0.13 | 4.5% | 13.9 |
| Kalen Ballage | $5,500 | 9.7 | 12.3% | 0.21 | 3.4% | 13.5 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,400 | 9.1 | 12.5% | 0.21 | 3.7% | 13.3 |
| Tarik Cohen | $5,700 | 8.9 | 8.2% | 0.12 | 2.8% | 12.8 |
| Jordan Howard | $6,100 | 8.6 | 3.3% | 0.04 | 2.1% | 11.8 |
| Bo Scarbrough | $6,400 | 8.5 | 3.7% | 0.05 | 2.7% | 12.5 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,800 | 8.2 | 2.8% | 0.04 | 0.6% | 11.4 |
| Derrius Guice | $5,400 | 8.0 | 7.3% | 0.11 | 1.5% | 11.9 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,300 | 7.4 | 7.0% | 0.10 | 1.1% | 11.4 |
Cash-Game Standouts
The best floor/ceiling combinations this week belong to Leonard Fournette ($7,000) and Alvin Kamara ($8,300) by a good margin on a mostly unappealing running back slate in terms of slam-dunk, can't-miss options.
Nick Chubb ($8,200), Le'Veon Bell ($7,300), Saquon Barkley ($7,900), and Brian Hill ($5,500) rate out next.
Miles Sanders ($5,600) is also relatively likely to pay off his price tag if Jordan Howard misses the Philadelphia Eagles' game against the Seattle Seahawks.
Tournament Standouts
If seeking raw upside, McCaffrey, Kamara, Chubb, Fournette, Derrick Henry ($8,400), Barkley, and Josh Jacobs ($8,000) are the most likely to net 20 FanDuel points, which shouldn't surprise us, given their possible workloads.
The best 75th-percentile value ratings belong to Fournette, Kamara, Chubb, Barkley, Bell, Hill, Henry, Jaylen Samuels ($6,900), Jacobs, and Phillip Lindsay ($6,300).
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | $9,200 | 19.6 | 56.6% | 2.50 | 73.1% | 25.1 |
| Julio Jones | $8,400 | 17.6 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 60.4% | 22.8 |
| Mike Evans | $8,000 | 15.4 | 45.7% | 1.34 | 49.8% | 20.3 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,400 | 14.3 | 48.0% | 1.58 | 46.4% | 19.3 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $7,000 | 13.7 | 47.5% | 1.39 | 42.1% | 18.3 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,800 | 13.6 | 40.5% | 1.06 | 43.6% | 18.5 |
| Julian Edelman | $7,500 | 13.5 | 39.5% | 1.10 | 39.5% | 17.7 |
| Calvin Ridley | $6,700 | 13.4 | 49.8% | 1.57 | 40.6% | 18.0 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $7,000 | 12.4 | 37.3% | 0.91 | 31.3% | 16.3 |
| DJ Moore | $6,400 | 12.1 | 44.5% | 1.29 | 31.1% | 15.9 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,900 | 12.0 | 38.7% | 1.02 | 31.0% | 15.8 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,700 | 12.0 | 31.8% | 0.65 | 33.0% | 17.1 |
| Allen Robinson II | $7,500 | 11.6 | 25.0% | 0.49 | 25.0% | 15.0 |
| John Brown | $6,500 | 11.5 | 41.4% | 1.09 | 29.5% | 15.9 |
| Jamison Crowder | $6,500 | 11.2 | 40.3% | 1.02 | 28.3% | 15.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,800 | 11.0 | 35.0% | 0.78 | 26.4% | 15.2 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,800 | 10.7 | 22.9% | 0.41 | 26.0% | 15.2 |
| DeVante Parker | $6,000 | 10.7 | 42.7% | 1.10 | 26.4% | 15.3 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,700 | 10.6 | 33.1% | 0.76 | 24.6% | 14.9 |
| Tyrell Williams | $6,400 | 10.3 | 32.1% | 0.71 | 18.7% | 13.9 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $7,200 | 10.0 | 21.3% | 0.38 | 17.6% | 13.8 |
| Golden Tate | $6,400 | 10.0 | 32.1% | 0.68 | 20.6% | 14.0 |
| Terry McLaurin | $5,800 | 10.0 | 40.8% | 1.01 | 17.8% | 13.6 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,600 | 9.9 | 41.2% | 1.03 | 18.9% | 13.8 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,800 | 9.6 | 27.2% | 0.53 | 20.3% | 14.0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | $6,200 | 9.3 | 30.3% | 0.61 | 16.9% | 13.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,700 | 9.3 | 36.0% | 0.85 | 15.6% | 13.0 |
| James Washington | $6,100 | 8.5 | 23.4% | 0.45 | 9.5% | 11.9 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,300 | 8.4 | 31.6% | 0.70 | 10.7% | 11.6 |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,500 | 8.3 | 20.6% | 0.34 | 11.2% | 12.1 |
| Diontae Johnson | $5,600 | 8.1 | 26.4% | 0.48 | 10.5% | 11.6 |
| Demaryius Thomas | $5,200 | 8.0 | 31.8% | 0.62 | 9.1% | 11.3 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,300 | 7.8 | 25.6% | 0.47 | 7.3% | 10.7 |
| Randall Cobb | $6,000 | 7.8 | 20.0% | 0.33 | 8.2% | 11.0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | $5,600 | 7.7 | 26.6% | 0.49 | 9.2% | 11.5 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,900 | 7.6 | 21.4% | 0.35 | 6.5% | 11.2 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,400 | 7.6 | 25.1% | 0.46 | 7.8% | 10.8 |
| Russell Gage | $5,300 | 7.5 | 26.9% | 0.50 | 8.4% | 10.9 |
| A.J. Brown | $5,300 | 7.4 | 30.4% | 0.59 | 8.4% | 11.4 |
| Phillip Dorsett II | $5,400 | 7.3 | 20.1% | 0.35 | 4.4% | 10.1 |
| Darius Slayton | $6,300 | 7.3 | 13.1% | 0.20 | 6.2% | 10.7 |
| Chris Conley | $5,700 | 7.1 | 19.4% | 0.32 | 7.2% | 10.4 |
| Danny Amendola | $5,700 | 7.1 | 18.2% | 0.29 | 4.4% | 10.3 |
| Nelson Agholor | $4,800 | 6.8 | 24.9% | 0.46 | 2.8% | 9.6 |
| Ted Ginn Jr. | $5,200 | 6.6 | 22.6% | 0.38 | 3.3% | 10.1 |
| Corey Davis | $5,200 | 6.6 | 18.5% | 0.30 | 3.0% | 9.3 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Michael Thomas ($9,200) defies odds in the simulations and is expected to come through even at a high price. Julio Jones ($8,400) isn't far behind. I disagree with the sims on ranking Tyler Lockett ($7,400) third in boom/bust ratio. Calvin Ridley ($6,700), Odell Beckham ($7,000), and Mike Evans ($8,000) make the top six here, so that goes against what we normally seek in cash games for FanDuel (i.e. spending up at running back instead of receiver).
The premier value options are D.J. Moore ($6,400), DeVante Parker ($6,000), John Brown ($6,500), and Jamison Crowder ($6,500).
Tournament Standouts
The best 75th-percentile values belong to Thomas, Jones, Ridley, Beckham, Lockett, Parker, Evans, Moore, Tyler Boyd ($5,600), and John Brown.
Among players priced at or below $6,000, those marks belong to Parker, Boyd, Terry McLaurin ($5,800), Curtis Samuel ($5,700), Dede Westbrook ($5,300), and Demaryius Thomas ($5,200).
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | $6,100 | 11.8 | 45.8% | 1.29 | 29.8% | 15.9 |
| Darren Waller | $6,200 | 10.7 | 39.5% | 1.01 | 23.6% | 14.7 |
| Jared Cook | $6,000 | 8.0 | 19.0% | 0.32 | 7.7% | 11.2 |
| Greg Olsen | $5,100 | 7.7 | 29.8% | 0.62 | 5.9% | 11.0 |
| Vance McDonald | $5,300 | 7.6 | 26.2% | 0.50 | 5.5% | 10.7 |
| Noah Fant | $5,100 | 7.2 | 27.8% | 0.50 | 6.0% | 10.8 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,200 | 6.9 | 23.7% | 0.43 | 4.1% | 10.2 |
| Jacob Hollister | $5,800 | 6.4 | 15.0% | 0.22 | 4.1% | 9.9 |
| Jason Witten | $5,300 | 6.4 | 18.1% | 0.28 | 4.5% | 9.6 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,000 | 6.2 | 22.8% | 0.39 | 3.1% | 9.6 |
| Ryan Griffin | $5,600 | 6.2 | 14.7% | 0.21 | 4.4% | 9.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $4,900 | 5.6 | 17.7% | 0.28 | 1.8% | 8.8 |
| Tyler Eifert | $5,000 | 5.6 | 17.2% | 0.26 | 2.8% | 8.8 |
| Cameron Brate | $5,400 | 5.5 | 10.4% | 0.14 | 1.3% | 8.3 |
| Jonnu Smith | $5,300 | 5.2 | 11.6% | 0.16 | 1.6% | 8.3 |
| Dawson Knox | $4,800 | 4.9 | 13.9% | 0.20 | 1.1% | 7.7 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Zach Ertz ($6,100) pops as the number-one tight end play in the simulations, based on boom/bust ratio. It's not really that close, though Darren Waller ($6,200) is a huge tier above everybody else. The salary-saving option looks to be Greg Olsen ($5,100), followed by Vance McDonald ($5,300) and Noah Fant ($5,100).
Tournament Standouts
Those five have the best 75th-percentile value outcomes in the simulations, but Ertz (29.8%) and Waller (23.6%) are the only tight ends more than 8.0% likely to hit 15 FanDuel points. Tight end is always volatile, but if you can get to Ertz or Waller, your odds for superb tight end production jump up.
