FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 14 Thursday Night
Dallas enters as a 3.0-point favorite, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and according to our dope oddsFire tool, a whopping 86% of the money coming in on the spread is on Dallas while 70% of the moneyline bets are on the 'Boys, as well. Our models agree with the public, projecting the Cowboys to win by a score of 25.31-20.55.
Knowing what the betting public is thinking can be really valuable when it comes to DFS. If the DFS community falls in line with bettors, then expect the masses to go heavy on Dallas tonight.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears ($15,000)
While Dak Prescott has undoubtedly been much better than Mitchell Trubisky this season, I like Trubisky over Dak in this spot for a few reasons, the most obvious being ownership leverage. As we talked about in the intro, the betting public is all over Dallas tonight, so of the two quarterbacks, Dak is likely to be higher owned, especially with Prescott being only $500 more than Trubisky.
But Trubisky hasn't too bad of late, and the matchup is a solid one. Our schedule-adjusted metrics rank Dallas 12th-worst against the pass, and in recent weeks, Trubisky has shown he can take advantage of nice matchups -- going for 24.92 and 19.42 FanDuel points in a pair of games with the Detroit Lions and posting 20.92 points versus the New York Giants.
As an added bonus. Trubisky has run it seven and four times in his last two games -- including his lone rushing score of 2019 -- after recording just four or more carries in only one game prior to Week 12. Trubisky's legs were a big reason for his fantasy success in 2018, and if he's getting back to scrambling, it raises both his floor and his ceiling.
Our projections do have Dak as the slate's top play, and Trubisky is capable of imploding in any game. But a road date with the elite defense of the Bears is a brutal spot for Prescott, and I'm leaning Trubisky over Dak tonight.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys ($14,500)
Despite a tough road matchup with the sixth-best run D, per our numbers, Ezekiel Elliott's volume makes him one of the slate's best plays.
Zeke has seen at least 18 total touches (carries and catches) in seven straight games, going for at least 20 carries in five of those. His volume could get a boost tonight due to the potential absence of Tony Pollard, who is looking very iffy after not practicing all week.
Teams have targeted running backs heavily against this Chicago defense, with the Bears giving up 95 targets to opposing backs, the fourth-most in the league. Elliott's pass-game role has been on the rise in recent weeks as he's seen three, three, four and 10 looks in his past four games. If Pollard -- who had four targets in both Week 11 and Week 12 -- sits, it could funnel even more looks to Zeke.
We project Zeke for 17.9 FanDuel points, making him our top-projected non-quarterback on the slate.
Allen Robinson, WR, Bears ($14,000)
Yes, the $14,000 salary is tough to stomach, but that could push people away from Robinson and over to Anthony Miller, who is just $10,500 and has been playing very well lately. But so has Robinson. With the exception of a four-grab, 15-yard clunker at the Los Angeles Rams, Robinson has gone for at least six catches and at least 86 yards in three of his last four.
A Robinson-Trubisky stack could be a contrarian move, and we have A-Rob pegged for 11.8 FanDuel points.
Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys ($11,000)
Michael Gallup's usage gives him a chance to pop for a big game each time out. Over the last four weeks, he paces Dallas in target share (20%) and air yards share (28%), and despite that, he's been held to five or fewer catches in three of the last four games. Of course, the lone exception there was a monster nine-reception, 148-yard day versus the Lions in Week 11.
Gallup sits 12th in the league in yards before catch per reception (11.6), and that kind of high-leverage usage gives him the kind of upside we crave on single-game slates.
Javon Wims, WR, Bears ($5,000)
Javon Wims has been an afterthought for most of this year, but he was a key cog for the Bears in Week 13, playing 58 snaps and racking up six catches for 56 yards. He was the prime beneficiary of Chicago going with 10 personnel 42% of the time on Thanksgiving after doing so just 5% of the time before Week 13.
Will the Bears use a lot of 10 personnel against Dallas? We can't say for sure. But it would make sense to do so after Trubisky played some of his best ball of the season in the second half of the win over Detroit last week.
Wims is a dart throw, but a player who could be on the field a lot and is just $5,000 is a guy we need to have on our radar.