FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Afternoon-Slate Helper: Week 14
The Week 14 afternoon NFL DFS slate on FanDuel has four matchups, which kick off between 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. EST. The highest total comes from the Kansas City Chiefs at the New England Patriots, which holds a 48.5 over/under. In their two matchups last season, they scored 83 and 68 points, so this game is likely to be a shootout.
Our NFL DFS matchup heat map will be referenced for all implied totals and spreads throughout this article, so be sure to check it out.
Let’s check out the best plays at various prices on this short slate.
High Priced Studs
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans ($9,100)
In the month of November, Derrick Henry averaged 27.8 fantasy points per game in FanDuel's 0.5 PPR format. And that was while catching only six balls. He is simply dominating teams on the ground and plowing his way into the end zone on a weekly basis.
Player not getting enough national attention: Derrick Henry.
In his last 3 games:
• 23 carries, 188 rushing yards, 2 TDs
• 19 carries, 159 rushing yards, 2 TDs
• 26 carries, 149 rushing yards, 1 TD#Titans won all 3 games. pic.twitter.com/xss6yhOwmW
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 2, 2019
As if things weren't easy enough for him, he gets to play an Oakland Raiders defense that ranks 30th in Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. Given his incredible workload on the ground, his touchdown upside, and his big-play ability, Henry should be a "set it and forget it" play this week on this slate.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,500)
Another week, another Leonard Fournette underpricing. The Jacksonville Jaguars' running back is seeing 89.9 percent of the backfield opportunity for his team -- which is behind only Christian McCaffrey -- and he also ranks second among running backs in targets with 81. While his price was justified a few weeks ago given his lack of touchdowns, he just scored twice against the Tennessee Titans and finished as the top running back on the slate in Week 12.
We have a nearly-unmatched workload with multi-touchdown upside and a solid floor with nine receptions in back-to-back weeks. It shouldn't be a surprise anymore than Fournette is projected to be the best value point-per-dollar running back on this slate.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,300)
Tyreek Hill has flashed his ceiling and floor over his last three games. While he scored 27.5 fantasy points on 19 targets against the Titans a few weeks ago, he has also scored 0.0 and 7.6 in the two games since then. Granted, he was injured in one of those, but his production can be fickle.
In the 2018 regular season, Hill smashed the Patriots with 142 yards and three scores, as nobody could keep up with his speed. Then in the playoffs, he caught just one ball for 42 scoreless yards while he was bracketed the entire game.
Bill Belichick on Tyreek Hill: "Does anyone not think he's the fastest player in the league?"
— Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis) December 4, 2019
Hill's floor is obviously low given a matchup with the Pats' top-ranked schedule-adjusted defense, but he has slate breaking ability and Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. Our projections have Tyreek as the highest-scoring receiver despite the tough matchup.
Mid-Priced Upside Plays
James White, RB, New England Patriots ($6,000)
James White exploded in Week 13, totaling 33.7 fantasy points as New England chased the Houston Texans throughout the contest. Those 33.7 points were more than White's previous four games combined, meaning we shouldn't expect a repeat performance.
We could, however, see a similar game flow in this matchup. Kansas City obviously has an explosive offense, but they also rank fourth-best in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Tom Brady is also dealing with multiple injuries, so he could struggle to push the ball down the field -- or at least want to get it out quickly to avoid any unnecessary pressure.
The Chiefs funnel production to opposing running backs, as they rank 30th in schedule-adjusted run defense. With White likely on the field for much of this game, he could feast on delayed handoffs and quick dump-offs to the flats, though if New England gets out to a lead, they'll likely ride Sony Michel.
James Washington, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,700)
With JuJu Smith-Schuster still sidelined with a knee injury, James Washington should be able to keep the good times rolling. The second-year receiver has posted at least 16 fantasy points in three of his last four games and had a career-day with Devlin Hodges in Week 13. The two connected on all four of their targets for 111 yards and a score, showing they may have developed a connection as backups together early in the season.
Absurdly good TD grab by James Washington. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/3bAMmS9AlY
— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) December 1, 2019
They are also in a dream spot against the Arizona Cardinals, who rank 31st in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Washington has been dominating the team's air yards, per AirYards.com, and the Cardinals also rank 29th in explosive pass rate, per SharpFootball. Look for Hodges to test this weak secondary with his new favorite target.
Darren Waller, TE, Oakland Raiders ($6,200)
After a string of disappointing performances, Darren Waller bounced back against the Chiefs. He saw nine targets -- his most since Week 3 -- and caught seven balls for 100 yards as the Raiders trailed throughout the game.
Oakland is a 2.5-point underdog this week, so they could be behind Tennessee throughout the game. This would lead to elevated pass attempts for Derek Carr, and with Waller's third-ranked (among tight ends) 24 percent target share, he would obviously be in a good spot.
Bargain Bin Prospects
Tyrell Williams, WR, Oakland Raiders ($5,700)
Tyrell the Gazelle has not been galloping in recent weeks. While he has seen 10 targets over his last two games, he has just 27 receiving yards to show for it. The good news is that he's still being targeted deep, as he's seen 114 air yards over the last two weeks and leads his team with 36 percent of the air yards on the season.
Those deep looks will eventually turn into production, and that production could come this week against the Titans. They currently rank 18th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, a stat that has been plummeting ever since the loss of Malcolm Butler. Williams should run plenty of routes on his replacement, Tye Smith, who runs a 4.60 40-yard dash, compared to Williams' 4.48. Look for Williams to shake loose from this coverage multiple times on Sunday.
Vance McDonald, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,800)
Vance McDonald, a tight end, is playing the Cardinals, who don't cover tight ends. They have allowed 953 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 17.7 fantasy points per game to the position this season.
BREAKING: The Arizona Cardinals have yielded a touchdown catch to a tight end. pic.twitter.com/2qOMCJwuT9
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) December 1, 2019
McDonald has played at least 90 percent of snaps in four straight weeks, has caught at least three balls in five of his last six games, and has the ability dominate after the catch with an 87th-percentile size-adjusted Speed Score, per PlayerProfiler. Don't expect Arizona to start bottling up tight ends this week.
Jonathan Taylor Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Jonathan Taylor Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jtsmittyyy. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.