4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 15
On the Week 15 FanDuel main slate, there are six games projected for an over/under of 46-points or more, and it should be a relatively high scoring week across the league. There are also eight teams projected to score at least 25-points this week, which should lead to some high scoring players.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player ownership projections.
With Seahawks’ running back Rashaad Penny injuring his knee in Week 14, he’s done for the 2019 regular season. Prior to his injury, Penny was seeing 45% or more of the running back snaps for the Seahawks in Week 12 and Week 13, taking a significant amount of playing time away from Chris Carson. With Penny’s injury, Carson should regain a majority of those snaps and get back to being a workhorse.
That couldn’t come at better time as Carson is set to face the league’s worst rushing defense this week, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. This unit has allowed an average of 28.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs this season – the most across the league.
I like stacking Carson with the Seahawks' D/ST this week. Seattle is currently a 6.5-point favorite, which bodes well for both Carson and the Seahawks' defense.
The Seahawks will be facing Kyle Allen, who has been a turnover machine this season -- especially as of late. He’s thrown 12 interceptions this season, which ranks as the fifth most across the league. Of those 12 interceptions, he’s tossed seven of them in his last four games. The Seahawks have been one of the best at picking off opposing quarterbacks this campaign and are tied for third with 13 interceptions.
If someone would have told you at the start of the 2019 season that Ryan Tannehill could potentially help you win your season-long fantasy league and was a viable DFS option on a weekly basis, you probably would have laughed in their face. But here we are -- heading into Week 15 of the season having those discussions.
This week, the Tennessee Titans are playing the Houston Texans. This is a great matchup for Tannehill, who has been a tremendously efficient passer all season. In just his last three games, Tannehill has completed at least 77% of his passes and has thrown for seven touchdown passes. He shouldn’t have any issue continuing to produce against a Texans passing defense that currently ranks 25th overall, per our numbers.
While the Texans' D has been relatively bad all season, they’ve particularly struggled versus the pass. Houston has allowed opposing quarterbacks to score an average of 21.5 FanDuel points per game, the sixth most across the league.
Pair Tannehill with A.J. Brown this week. Brown has clearly become as the Titans’ number-one wide receiver this season as he currently leads the team with a 17.17% target share. His targets have steadily gone up as the season has progressed, and he is coming off a Week 14 game against the Oakland Raiders in which he saw 29.6% of the Tannehill’s targets. He turned those targets into five receptions, 153 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
This game between the Titans and Texans boasts an over/under of 51.5 points. That is the highest over/under of any game on the FanDuel main slate, so this could very well turn into a shootout. If it does, Tannehill and Brown will have likely played a big role in that.
San Francisco 49ers
Both Garoppolo and Kittle have positive matchups against this Falcons defense. Starting with Garoppolo, this is one of the best matchups he’s seen all season. The Falcons are currently allowing 22.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the third-most. They’re also giving up 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, the 10th-most.
Garoppolo has faced only three teams this season who have allowed more opponent passing touchdowns per game -- the Arizona Cardinals (twice), Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. In those four games, Garoppolo has absolutely smashed in terms of both fantasy football and real-life football. He combined for 13 passing touchdowns and threw for 1,256 passing yards over those four -- which averages out to be 314 yards and 3.25 touchdowns per game.
On paper, this matchup doesn’t look to be as friendly for Kittle as it is for Garoppolo. But if you’ve watched Kittle play football over the last two seasons, you know matchups don’t matter too much for a guy with his strength and talent.
While the Falcons have allowed just 9.7 FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends this season – right around the league average – Kittle does have one of the best one-on-one matchups this week. Per PFF’s tight end matchup chart, Kittle is expected to face Falcons’ safety Damontae Kazee. Kittle has a 32% advantage over Kazee, making it the third best tight end matchup across all games (not just the main slate).
Per our projections, Kittle is currently projected to be the second-highest scoring tight end on the slate, and he offers the third best point-per-dollar value at the position.
Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns
The final Week 15 stack that I like is a game stack between the Cardinals and Cleveland Browns.
This game should be fun to watch in general as both quarterbacks -- Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield -- played with one another in college. With both teams essentially eliminated from playoffs and having defensive issues, this game could turn into a shootout. The over/under for this one is currently set for 49.0 points, the second highest over/under on the slate.
While you can run this game stack several different ways, I like stacking Kyler Murray and Larry Fitzgerald, and then running it back with Jarvis Landry.
Per our DFS projections, we currently have Murray slated to be the fourth-highest scoring quarterback on the main slate, but he is being priced on FanDuel as the 12th most expensive quarterback. It’s safe to say you’re getting Murray at a discount this week, at least compared to his projections.
Murray always possess as a major threat running the ball. We currently have him projected for 5.83 rushing attempts, 37.05 rushing yards and 0.31 rushing touchdowns -- all of which rank as the most for any quarterback on the main slate.
I like stacking Murray with Larry Fitzgerald in this matchup. Per PFF’s wide receiver/cornerback matchup chart, Fitzgerald has one of the best matchups of any receiver on the main slate. He’s currently expected to face Browns’ cornerback Travis Carrie and has a 17% advantage over him.
With Cards’ receiver Christian Kirk battling an ankle injury once again, Fitzgerald could also see an uptick in targets this week. If Kirk is full-go, then he's firmly on the stacking radar, too.
Finally, I like running this stack back with Landry. Like Fitzgerald, Landry has a fantastic matchup this week. He’s currently set to face Cards’ cornerback Kevin Peterson and has a 22% advantage over him, which ranks as the seventh best wide receiver matchup on the main slate.
Landry has been a monster for the Browns this year. While he and Odell Beckham have both seen a 26% target share, Landry has been more efficient with his targets, catching 61% of his targets, compared to Beckham’s 54% catch rate. Landry has also been Mayfield’s go-to guy in the red zone, leading the team with a 29% red zone target share and five receiving touchdowns inside the 20.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)