NFL

Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 16

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel

FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection

Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.

Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.

Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and quarterbacks , this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.

75th Pct:
The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
25+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Lamar Jackson $9,300 24.7 34.6% 1.80 49.3% 30.3
Russell Wilson $8,300 21.9 33.4% 1.27 33.2% 26.8
Matt Ryan $7,700 19.4 31.8% 1.03 22.9% 24.3
Dak Prescott $8,000 19.3 26.2% 0.81 21.9% 24.3
Drew Brees $8,200 19.2 21.0% 0.53 20.2% 23.3
Ryan Tannehill $7,800 19.0 30.0% 0.95 21.6% 24.3
Kyler Murray $7,700 18.6 29.1% 0.88 21.7% 24.1
Ryan Fitzpatrick $7,400 18.2 30.7% 0.97 19.7% 23.4
Carson Wentz $7,700 17.7 22.2% 0.61 15.1% 22.2
Philip Rivers $7,500 17.7 27.2% 0.76 18.1% 23.0
Jacoby Brissett $7,500 17.3 26.1% 0.69 15.9% 22.7
Andy Dalton $7,100 16.6 26.3% 0.71 13.1% 21.6
Gardner Minshew II $6,800 16.6 28.9% 0.83 12.1% 21.3
Daniel Jones $7,300 15.8 21.2% 0.49 10.7% 20.7
Drew Lock $7,300 15.5 18.1% 0.40 8.8% 20.5
Baker Mayfield $7,400 15.2 16.9% 0.34 9.5% 20.1
Derek Carr $7,300 15.1 18.3% 0.40 9.1% 20.2
Will Grier $6,000 14.7 34.4% 1.04 9.3% 20.1
Dwayne Haskins Jr. $7,000 14.5 20.3% 0.42 6.6% 19.5
Devlin Hodges $6,900 14.0 19.2% 0.40 7.7% 19.1
Sam Darnold $7,400 13.8 14.1% 0.27 7.4% 19.0
David Blough $6,600 12.7 17.2% 0.33 5.5% 17.8


Cash-Game Standouts
So, it's Lamar Jackson ($9,300) week. Jackson is nearly twice as likely to return 3x value as he is to fall shy of 2x value and rates out as one of the best cash-game plays of the season in his matchup with the Cleveland Browns. Especially compared to the rest of the quarterbacks, Jackson is priority one for me this week.

Russell Wilson ($8,300) is a cut above everyone else, followed by a tier of Will Grier ($6,000), Matt Ryan ($7,700), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,400), and Ryan Tannehill ($7,800). With value at running back, I'll be leaving Grier out of cash-game consideration and would go with Ryan or Tannehill if I can't get to Lamar.

Tournament Standouts
Jackson is nearly 50% likely to return 25.0 FanDuel points, which isn't really surprising based on his baseline projection. Wilson is at 33.2%, so in terms of raw point totals, these two have ceilings worth spending up for.

The best values when using 75th-percentile outcomes are Grier, Jackson, Wilson, Fitzpatrick, Ryan, Gardner Minshew ($6,800), Kyler Murray ($7,700), Tannehill, and Philip Rivers ($7,500).

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
20+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Christian McCaffrey $10,800 21.3 13.2% 1.64 57.1% 27.8
Chris Carson $8,200 17.5 21.3% 1.99 38.8% 23.5
Ezekiel Elliott $8,700 17.1 19.0% 1.71 38.7% 24.2
Leonard Fournette $7,500 17.1 26.1% 2.41 35.7% 22.8
Alvin Kamara $7,200 16.9 24.7% 2.64 31.7% 21.6
Saquon Barkley $8,800 16.4 10.9% 1.32 32.9% 22.0
Joe Mixon $7,800 16.0 17.4% 1.80 33.5% 21.8
Derrick Henry $8,800 15.3 10.0% 0.95 26.6% 20.4
Melvin Gordon III $7,000 14.5 18.3% 1.84 21.1% 19.1
Le'Veon Bell $7,100 14.1 17.2% 1.51 21.8% 19.2
Miles Sanders $7,400 13.9 11.0% 1.62 19.2% 18.6
Devonta Freeman $6,200 13.7 27.4% 2.27 20.7% 19.0
Austin Ekeler $6,800 13.7 15.9% 1.51 17.4% 18.0
Mark Ingram II $7,600 13.5 10.5% 0.94 18.7% 18.5
James Conner $7,400 13.4 12.3% 1.17 20.6% 18.8
Marlon Mack $7,300 13.2 11.0% 1.11 17.4% 18.1
Phillip Lindsay $6,300 13.0 21.1% 1.71 15.7% 18.0
Nick Chubb $8,000 12.9 6.3% 0.68 15.1% 17.4
Kenyan Drake $7,100 12.9 11.7% 1.08 15.6% 18.0
Adrian Peterson $6,500 12.3 16.0% 1.45 14.5% 17.3
DeAndre Washington $5,600 11.4 21.0% 1.42 9.5% 15.8
Patrick Laird $5,500 10.4 15.6% 1.24 5.7% 14.5
Kareem Hunt $6,100 10.1 8.6% 0.80 4.0% 14.3
Jalen Richard $5,200 8.9 12.4% 0.90 3.4% 12.8
Royce Freeman $5,500 8.1 6.9% 0.64 1.8% 12.2
Latavius Murray $5,500 7.4 4.4% 0.48 0.8% 11.3
Chris Thompson $5,000 7.3 6.9% 0.62 0.6% 11.1
Myles Gaskin $5,200 7.2 5.7% 0.48 0.6% 10.6
Nyheim Hines $5,700 6.7 1.2% 0.22 0.4% 9.7
Boston Scott $5,400 6.7 1.4% 0.27 0.1% 9.6
Jaylen Samuels $5,600 5.2 0.6% 0.11 0.1% 8.1
Bo Scarbrough $5,900 5.1 0.2% 0.06 0.0% 7.9


Cash-Game Standouts
The sims love Alvin Kamara ($7,200) at his lowered price in a shootout spot with the Tennessee Titans. Leonard Fournette ($7,500), Devonta Freeman ($6,200), and Chris Carson ($8,200) all rate out as top-tier cash-game plays based on floor/ceiling combinations. Carson, Freeman, and Kamara are my preferences.

DeAndre Washington ($5,600) is cheap but isn't quite as much of a guarantee as we may hope. The Oakland Raiders are road underdogs in what could be a slow-paced game. He's still an option if spending up for Jackson or wide receivers. He is eighth in terms of raw value using his median projection.

Tournament Standouts
Using 75th-percentile outcomes, the best values are Freeman, Fournette, Kamara, Carson, Phillip Lindsay ($6,300), Washington, Joe Mixon ($7,800), Ezekiel Elliott ($8,700), Melvin Gordon ($7,000), and Le'Veon Bell ($7,100).

It's worth noting that Christian McCaffrey ($10,800) unsurprisingly has the best 75th-percentile outcome and is ninth in boom/bust ratio. He's playable in all formats, provided you like the value at other positions.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Michael Thomas $9,000 19.6 57.0% 2.28 70.3% 25.4
Julio Jones $8,000 16.5 53.3% 1.92 58.3% 22.0
Tyler Lockett $7,600 13.5 40.2% 1.05 41.1% 18.1
DJ Moore $6,600 13.0 49.2% 1.61 37.6% 17.1
Keenan Allen $6,700 12.9 47.0% 1.37 37.4% 17.4
A.J. Brown $7,200 12.8 39.8% 1.04 36.9% 17.1
Amari Cooper $7,700 12.4 34.6% 0.79 36.4% 17.2
DeVante Parker $6,900 12.3 39.0% 1.03 31.3% 16.3
Courtland Sutton $7,100 12.2 39.1% 0.98 33.6% 16.9
Tyler Boyd $6,300 12.0 43.0% 1.11 29.8% 15.9
Jarvis Landry $6,900 12.0 39.5% 0.98 32.3% 16.6
Terry McLaurin $6,500 11.8 40.8% 1.06 30.4% 16.1
Kenny Golladay $7,400 11.6 31.6% 0.71 30.6% 16.0
DK Metcalf $6,300 11.5 44.2% 1.20 27.6% 16.3
T.Y. Hilton $7,300 11.4 26.7% 0.56 24.5% 14.9
Christian Kirk $5,900 11.3 47.9% 1.43 29.9% 15.9
Odell Beckham Jr. $6,700 10.7 32.3% 0.67 23.5% 14.8
Michael Gallup $6,500 10.3 29.4% 0.64 18.3% 13.7
Mike Williams $6,500 10.3 31.8% 0.69 21.2% 14.3
Sterling Shepard $6,300 10.3 35.8% 0.82 21.0% 14.3
Jamison Crowder $6,000 10.0 37.0% 0.89 20.7% 14.1
Robby Anderson $6,100 9.9 33.2% 0.72 19.7% 13.7
Darius Slayton $6,000 9.5 34.3% 0.75 16.5% 13.3
DJ Chark Jr. $6,300 9.5 23.9% 0.48 10.5% 12.4
Curtis Samuel $6,000 9.3 29.8% 0.61 13.2% 13.0
Marquise Brown $5,700 9.1 33.7% 0.73 16.1% 13.1
Larry Fitzgerald $5,700 9.1 33.3% 0.72 12.6% 12.5
Danny Amendola $6,000 9.1 28.3% 0.57 14.2% 12.7
Dede Westbrook $5,700 9.0 32.4% 0.71 13.3% 12.7
James Washington $6,600 9.0 19.2% 0.33 9.5% 12.3
JuJu Smith-Schuster $6,800 8.7 18.2% 0.30 12.1% 12.4
Diontae Johnson $5,700 8.7 28.1% 0.59 11.2% 12.1
Zach Pascal $6,600 8.5 20.6% 0.36 12.8% 12.5
Chris Conley $5,800 8.4 27.7% 0.52 11.1% 12.1
Golden Tate $6,200 8.4 24.4% 0.44 11.3% 12.3
Tyrell Williams $5,600 8.3 29.7% 0.61 10.3% 12.0
Greg Ward $5,700 7.9 23.1% 0.41 5.6% 11.0
Corey Davis $5,200 7.8 31.1% 0.60 9.7% 11.3
Russell Gage $5,100 7.7 33.4% 0.71 8.6% 11.5
Randall Cobb $5,300 7.5 28.8% 0.55 6.4% 11.0
John Ross III $5,200 7.4 29.4% 0.57 7.8% 11.0
Hunter Renfrow $5,400 7.3 25.0% 0.45 7.3% 10.8
Steven Sims Jr. $5,700 6.9 18.3% 0.29 3.6% 10.1


Cash-Game Standouts

I had an interesting conversation with Jim Sannes on this week's Heat Check fantasy podcast about whether we'd rather pay up for Lamar Jackson or Michael Thomas ($9,000) in a cash game lineup. I erred for Jackson, but Thomas' elite boom/bust ratio makes him an appealing play as well.

Behind Thomas in floor/ceiling combo are Julio Jones ($8,000), D.J. Moore ($6,600), Christian Kirk ($5,900), Keenan Allen ($6,700), D.K. Metcalf ($6,300), and Tyler Boyd ($6,300). You can build a great lineup with these guys.

Tournament Standouts
Thomas, Jones, Kirk, Moore, and Allen are the top five in tournament value. The only 75th-percentile outcomes above 17.0 belong to Thomas (25.4), Jones (22.0), Tyler Lockett ($7,600; 18.1), Allen (17.4), Amari Cooper ($7,700; 17.2), Moore (17.1) and A.J. Brown (17.1).

The best ceilings by receivers priced at or below $6,500: Metcalf (16.3), Terry McLaurin ($6,500; 16.1), Boyd (15.9), Kirk (15.9), Sterling Shepard ($6,300; 14.3), and Mike Williams ($6,500; 14.3).

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Zach Ertz $6,900 13.0 45.8% 1.35 38.4% 17.2
Darren Waller $6,500 11.7 41.3% 1.08 30.1% 16.3
Austin Hooper $6,000 10.7 42.6% 1.08 24.1% 14.8
Mark Andrews $6,500 10.2 33.2% 0.70 23.2% 14.6
Hunter Henry $6,100 9.7 34.4% 0.73 18.5% 13.6
Jared Cook $6,600 9.6 23.1% 0.40 13.6% 12.8
Jack Doyle $6,200 8.5 21.0% 0.37 10.0% 11.8
Jacob Hollister $5,700 7.9 26.3% 0.49 9.8% 11.6
Dallas Goedert $5,900 7.9 20.2% 0.34 7.2% 11.0
Mike Gesicki $5,300 7.6 27.4% 0.52 6.8% 11.1
Noah Fant $5,900 7.3 19.1% 0.31 6.7% 10.7
Greg Olsen $4,900 7.0 23.4% 0.41 3.1% 9.5
Jason Witten $5,800 6.9 17.4% 0.28 4.7% 10.3
Tyler Eifert $4,700 6.3 25.9% 0.47 2.3% 9.6
Jonnu Smith $5,400 6.2 14.6% 0.21 2.2% 8.9
Kaden Smith $5,100 5.4 9.9% 0.13 0.5% 7.8
Vance McDonald $5,000 5.0 10.5% 0.14 0.6% 7.7
Hayden Hurst $5,100 4.0 8.8% 0.11 0.6% 7.1
Blake Jarwin $5,300 4.0 6.7% 0.08 0.5% 6.8


Cash-Game Standouts
It's Zach Ertz ($6,900), it's Darren Waller ($6,500), and it's Austin Hooper ($6,000) and then everyone else. Ertz is the clear top priority, so the value at running back will come in handy. We also have a decision to make between Ertz and Jackson or the pricey receivers.

Tournament Standouts
Tight ends with at least a 10% chance to return 15 FanDuel points: Ertz (38.4%), Waller (30.1%), Hooper (24.1%), Mark Andrews ($6,500; 23.2%), Hunter Henry ($6,100; 18.5%), Jared Cook ($6,600; 13.6%), and Jack Doyle ($6,200; 10.0%). Jacob Hollister ($5,700; 9.8%) is close behind.

Mike Gesicki ($5,300) rates out as the best cheaper tight end and is the only one below $5,500 who really generates intrigue for me. The simulations also don't mind Greg Olsen ($4,900) and Tyler Eifert ($4,700).