Daily Fantasy Football: Sannes' Situations to Monitor for the Divisional Round

Wild card weekend was littered with tight games, all four finishing as one-score affairs with two going into overtime. Nobody got wiped, and nobody ran away and hid.

The divisional round could be a bit different. Two teams are almost double-digit favorites, and none of the spreads are within a field goal. That changes things a bit from a DFS perspective.

Not only do we have to worry about game script pushing one team to run while the other airs it out, but there's also the potential for certain offenses to just not show up at all, nullifying the fantasy appeal of everyone attached. The Minnesota Vikings showed last week that a wide spread is not a death sentence, but we have to account for the range of outcomes.

This gives us an extra layer to consider when trying to decipher which players stand out from a DFS perspective. And it also could open up some value in spots where we desperately need it.

With that in mind, let's dive in now and try to decipher what should be a fun weekend of football. All salaries referenced will be from FanDuel's full four-game slate. Which fluctuating situations are primed to impact how we view various players in each game? Let's check it out.

Vikings at 49ers

The question around this game revolves around whether you think Kirk Cousins can double up on the magic from last weekend. If he can, we could have a fun game. If not, things could get out of hand.

Unfortunately for Cousins and the Vikings, the numbers about this team in tough matchups this year are a bit daunting. Below are Cousins' splits based on the schedule-adjusted ranking of the opposing pass defense, per numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP). NEP is the metric we use to track the expected points added or subtracted on each play, giving stats more context than you get with a yards-based model. Passing NEP per drop back -- the number you'll see for both Cousins and the league in each split -- includes deductions for expected points lost on negative events such as sacks, incompletions, and interceptions. Against tough competition, Cousins has really struggled.

Cousins dusted poor opposing defenses, a big part of why he was sixth in Passing NEP per drop back overall. His 150 drop backs against top-10 pass defenses, though, were far less rosy, and the San Francisco 49ers ranked second in this metric for the regular season.

There are two quick rebuttals to this. The first is that Cousins tore up the New Orleans Saints last week -- who ranked 12th in schedule-adjusted pass defense -- and the second is that the 49ers didn't play all that well down the stretch. Both are valid points, but they shouldn't nullify the concerns around Cousins in a tough spot.

Starting with the Saints, they had to play that game without Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport. As noted entering last week's game, the team's defense was a much lesser unit when Rankins was off the field. Their 12th-place ranking was a bit misleading.

As for the 49ers, they did struggle down the stretch, but part of that was due to injury. Richard Sherman should be healthier following the bye, and they're expected to get both Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander back for Saturday. Ford has played just four snaps since initially getting hurt in Week 11, and it helps bolster a pass rush that had slowed down from its torrid start.

If Cousins struggles to move the ball, that negatively impacts the Vikings' entire offense, and it hurts the appeal in Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers' passing offense. So figuring out how Cousins performs will be a key in diagnosing the way this game plays out.

The one player who could still be hyper-viable even if Cousins does struggle is Dalvin Cook. That's because Cook's workload in his return last week was simply massive.

Cook played 78.5% of the snaps there, his fourth-highest rate of the year, and racked up 28 carries and 5 targets. His passing-game involvement is why he could pay off even if the Vikings fall behind, so he's a top-tier option at $8,000.

One hope the Vikings have in trying to keep things close is the health of Adam Thielen. Thielen had nine targets last week, four of which were "deep" (at least 16 yards downfield), and went for 129 yards. Sunday was the first time the Vikings had all of Cook, Thielen, and Stefon Diggs healthy since Week 6, and it showed.

Thielen's health is a topic once again after he suffered a cut on his ankle during Wednesday's practice, forcing him to miss Thursday and be listed as questionable. Still, Thielen sounds optimistic about playing and is expected to be ready to rock. If that winds up being the case, he could continue to get the healthy volume he has seen all year.

If you assume Thielen is healthy, then he is tempting at $6,900 though not the top option in that salary range.

Thielen being healthy would also be big for Diggs, who didn't see a target bump when Thielen was out earlier in the year. A healthy Thielen makes the entire offense hum better, and that benefits Diggs as much as anybody else. He'd also serve as a pivot off of Thielen after Thielen's big game last week, meaning we should give some thought to Diggs at $6,800, as well, if we think the Vikings make this game competitive.

If you're less optimistic about Thielen's ankle, then it's possible Kyle Rudolph becomes an option. Rudolph set a new season-high with seven targets last week, and his 92.4% snap rate was his highest since Week 2. Quiet role changes are good, and it seems like Rudolph got one. We'd much rather pay up for George Kittle or Travis Kelce on this slate, but Rudolph seems to stand out as a potential desirable value option at the position.

Again, with the Vikings' passing game, the hopes lie with the performance of Cousins. The same is true for the 49ers' passing offense as they would see muted volume if the 49ers pulled away for a win. That would be a shame because Emmanuel Sanders is shaping up to be a top-notch salary-saver.

We're up to eight games the 49ers have played in which both Sanders and Kittle have been active. Kittle is definitely the top target, but he'll cost you $7,400 while Sanders is just $5,700. Sanders' volume in that sample has also been solid.

The volume means that Sanders' floor is solid, putting him in play even if the Vikings can't keep pace. His ceiling would just get a major boost if it's a back-and-forth affair. Sanders is one of the better value options on the four-game slate.

It's hard to argue against Kittle. He has at least 50 receiving yards in 12 of 14 games this year, and he has hit the 70-yard mark in 6 of 8 games with Sanders in town. He and Kelce are tight for the top tight end on the slate, so get there when you can. They're just not all that easy to afford when trying to spend up for Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.

One cost-saving measure that could help you afford the stud tight ends is using Garoppolo at quarterback for $7,800. He has been inconsistent for fantasy this year thanks to a run-heavy approach, but Garoppolo has also scored at least 28 FanDuel points twice since Sanders joined the team. He has a ceiling; it's the floor that's shaky. For a tournament lineup, that's not the worst problem you could have.

The reason we should hope the Vikings keep things close is that if they can't, it'd be the 49ers' ground game that would get the most volume. Things are still spread out there.

It has been four games now since Raheem Mostert earned a larger piece of the pie in that backfield, and it's clear he's the top option. But the volume for him hasn't been all that enticing. Below are the averages for each of their top three backs in this four-game split. "Adjusted opportunities" is carries plus two-times the player's target total to account for the fact that a carry is worth twice as much as a target in a half-PPR scoring setting.

Even in Week 16 when Matt Breida was active but didn't play a single offensive snap, Mostert still had just 11 carries and 1 target. This backfield is still a headache.

The 49ers haven't had a blowout win since Week 12, which was before Mostert passed Tevin Coleman on the depth chart. If you assume the 49ers coast to victory, then you can justify using Mostert at $6,700, and that's definitely something that could happen. But his path to a big game outside of that is pretty obscure.

One interesting note about that four-game stretch with Mostert as the lead back is that Samuel has also been getting worked in as a rusher in this time. He has at least one rush attempt in all four games, and he's averaging two per. The team wants this guy to have the ball in his hands, and they're willing to get creative to get there. We should rank Sanders higher because he's cheaper, but Samuel is another respectable value play at $6,100 who helps fill a tougher position.

Titans at Ravens

Even including Thielen and Will Fuller, the biggest injury story on this slate is the status of Mark Ingram. Ingram returned to practice Thursday and is questionable, but he's no lock to suit up as the Baltimore Ravens host the Tennessee Titans.

This is inherently big because it's a short slate, so every injury matters. It's even more important because the Ravens are 9.5-point favorites and have one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL. Fun times.

The easiest-to-diagnose scenario is what to do if Ingram sits. Then you just plug in Gus Edwards at $5,400 and call it a day. With Ingram out in Week 17, Edwards played 67.7% of the snaps, handling 21 carries and 1 target. Justice Hill's snap rate peaked in Week 1 and was just 27.9% in Week 17 even with Ingram sitting. Edwards would be the best running back option on the slate if Ingram were to miss.

As of right now, though, that doesn't seem to be the most likely scenario. Ingram seems as if he is trending toward suiting up.

Usually, we don't get these Schefty bombs until the night before the game. This one came Thursday afternoon, which should jack up our interest in using Ingram.

The fact that this nugget about Ingram's availability came out as early as it did means they're fairly confident he'll play. It also likely means he's close enough to full health to justify said optimism. And a fully healthy Ingram would be intriguing in this spot.

For the full season, Ingram has been frustrating in daily fantasy because his workloads have been just mediocre. He didn't get enough work as either a rusher or a receiver to be a cash-game option, forcing him to rely on touchdowns in order to pay off.

But some of that was because the Ravens were just absolutely dusting teams. Here are the Ravens' rushing shares from Weeks 1 to 16 based on the score at the time.

When it was a tight game, things were pretty concentrated between Jackson and Ingram. It was when they pulled away that Edwards and Hill got more involved.

This is a signal to us. The Ravens view Ingram as their top back, meaning in high-leverage situations, he's going to be the guy toting the rock. In the playoffs, every situation is high-leverage, and we should expect Ingram's workload to go up as a result. The odds of that happening are now higher with confirmation of Ingram's health.

There is obviously still risk in using Ingram. The matchup is tough, he's not super involved as a receiver, and he's not at full health. Those are all enough to make sure he doesn't crack our top three at the position. But even with those concerns, Ingram is someone who deserves to be in our player pool if we are multi-entering for tournaments, and we should hope people avoid him because of the injury.

Of course, if you can't stomach pulling the trigger on Ingram, that's not entirely heartbreaking. You can still get to Lamar Jackson for exposure to the team's ground game, and he topped 30 FanDuel points seven times this year. He's undoubtedly the top quarterback play of the weekend, even when you consider his lofty salary. That will help make up for any lingering sadness around ambiguity for the running backs.

The only issue with Jackson is the salary. If we're going to use him, we need to find value elsewhere. Edwards could be one guy to supply it, but another could actually be Marquise Brown.

Brown is not on the injury report this week, which is a bit of a rarity. He was listed as questionable nine times during the season and practiced in full the entire week only six times. This week marks the seventh time.

It's possible Brown is the healthiest he has been all season, and they're not going to be saving him up for anything. If they're ever going to push him out there for 80% of the snaps -- a number he hit once during the regular season -- now would be the time.

Let's lower that threshold even to just 50% of the snaps. Brown crossed that threshold 10 times this year, and in those games, he had a decent share of the team's targets.

If we up that number to 60%, Brown's target share sits at 24.9% (7.2 targets per game) while Andrews gets 21.4% of the looks. And given the situation at hand, it seems reasonable to expect that Brown could be on the field plenty on Saturday night. That's enticing at $5,300.

Brown's not a lock to see an increased role, and given the team's run-heavy nature, his floor is a legit goose egg. This is not a player you must use. But if his role does expand, you're going to have trouble duplicating anything near his upside with a player in this salary tier. Especially if it helps you afford Jackson, Brown is a worthwhile value target.

Andrews is clearly on the map, too, but his salary is much loftier at $6,800, putting him within shouting distance of Kelce and Kittle. You can go there, but he's not in as big of a must-buy spot as Brown is.

The Ravens' passing offense (outside of Jackson) has a similar concern to the 49ers' in that you need the opponent to show life in order to get big volume. And that's a legitimate question with how well their defense has played.

For the full season, the Ravens ranked fourth in schedule-adjusted passing defense, according to numberFire's metrics. But that includes the time before the Marcus Peters trade and while Jimmy Smith was hurt, and they've reached a new level with those two on the field. That's daunting for Ryan Tannehill.

During the regular season, only 18.6% of Tannehill's drop backs came against top-10 pass defenses, the fourth-lowest mark of any quarterback with at least 300 drop backs. He got a win against the New England Patriots last week, but Tannehill's contributions were minimal there with 72 yards on 15 attempts. That makes this a scary spot for Tannehill and company.

The Titans found a way to get by last week by riding Derrick Henry into the ground, giving him 34 carries and a season-high 80.7% of the snaps. If they want to advance, it seems like they should favor a similar gameplan this time around.

The Ravens' defense is far more vulnerable against the rush than the pass, ranking 21st there for the full season. That's the fourth-best mark among teams on this slate because rush defense borders on being irrelevant for team success, but it still means you can move the ball on them there if you want.

That's why we can go at Henry even if we assume the Ravens run it up here. Unless things get out of hand right away, the Titans' best path to victory is via grinding Henry into oblivion. That's going to lead to lots of volume, and we want that desperately. We should rank him behind Damien Williams and behind Dalvin Cook thanks to Cook's reduced salary and increased volume in the passing game, but Henry is still an upper-tier running back play this week.

The rest of the Titans will be hard to trust, both due to the matchup and the likely gameplan. Outside of A.J. Brown, who is $7,400, they don't have anybody who gets worthwhile target shares.

You can use Brown if you think the Titans will be able to move the ball through the air, but as he showed last week, his floor is scary in tough spots. Having Henry as the only Titan in your player pool may be the optimal approach here.

Texans at Chiefs

Last week, Devin Singletary was the cheap running back whose role was better than his salary would indicate. He was an easy way to spend down at the position without capping your ceiling.

Damien Williams is this week's Singletary, and he has even more things working in his favor.

The primary factor is that he's tied to Mahomes, and -- shocker -- that's a good thing for a running back. Mahomes is why the Kansas City Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites, and that's a plus for a running back.

Williams came back from his rib injury in Week 16 and immediately jumped back into his old role. He played 53.0% of the snaps in Week 16 and then 70.0% in Week 17 as the Chiefs fought to earn a first-round bye. When they needed a win, they stuck with Williams.

A Chiefs running back has had a snap rate of at least 55% in five games this year; all five have been by Williams. They've been a committee backfield except when Williams has been fully healthy.

If we lower that threshold to a 50% snap rate, we get a seven-game sample on Williams. In those games, he has averaged 12.9 carries and 4.6 targets (22.0 adjusted opportunities) per game. Those numbers inch up to 14.3 carries and 4.7 targets (23.7 adjusted opportunities) per game if you look at the three where his snap rate was at least 70%. He's a guy who gets work as both a rusher and a receiver on the team with the highest implied total on the slate. We should build around this guy at $6,900, and he's one of the best options we've got at any position.

Of course, with this being a four-game slate, using Williams does not exclude you from targeting the Chiefs' passing game. The Houston Texans rank 24th against the pass, so we should happily target Mahomes and company, as well. We've got some flexibility in how we go at the passing game.

Across the regular season, we had just six games in which all of Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins were healthy. That makes the fact they still got a first-round bye even more impressive. But in those six games, Hill and Kelce both got healthy volume.

Hill is $7,900 while Kelce is $7,500. Both are worth their respective salaries.

If forced to choose between the two, it would be hard to lay off of Hill. We've seen his ceiling only a couple times this year in part because of injuries but also because they just haven't played many tight games. After the team's Week 12 bye, they out-scored their opponents, 143-52, and the only one-score game was against the Patriots' elite secondary. We should never assume a blowout in a playoff setting, meaning the Chiefs should be expected to keep the foot on the pedal. If they do, we could finally get another Hill ceiling game. Kelce is likely a hair beneath Kittle in the fight for the top tight end option while you can make an easy case for putting Hill at the top of the heap for receivers.

For the four-game slate, Mahomes is $8,600, $800 cheaper than Jackson but still the second most expensive quarterback. Jackson is undoubtedly the better option. After that, though, Mahomes seems to be in a tier of his own as the number two choice at the position.

You can get Deshaun Watson for $300 cheaper on the other side, and it seems likely that Watson gets Fuller back from injury. Still, we should likely favor Mahomes.

Including the playoffs, Watson has scored at least 20 FanDuel points in eight games this year. Only two of those games were outdoors. Yes, one of them was in Arrowhead, but Watson's point total was bolstered by a pair of rushing touchdowns there. Although that could happen again, the salary gap between the two isn't big enough for us to favor Watson over Mahomes.

That isn't to say that Fuller isn't a big boost for the offense. As you can see with these numbers via The Quant Edge, Watson becomes a totally new player when Fuller is at his disposal.

Having a lid-lifter out there benefits everybody in this offense because it increases their touchdown expectation. The one lone potential loser is DeAndre Hopkins.

Assuming Fuller and Kenny Stills are both good to go (Stills -- like Fuller -- has been limited the first two practices this week), it will be just the seventh time this year they've had both healthy enough to play at least 30% of the snaps. Hopkins' deep volume has taken a hit in those games.

This makes sense because having Fuller out there allows Hopkins to run a different route tree and gives Watson another outlet if he wants to chuck it up. It's just not a major positive for Hopkins.

Additionally, the matchup here is pretty tough. The Chiefs finished the regular season ranked fifth against the pass, and the Texans do have to move outdoors. Combining those factors with Fuller's likely availability, and it's easy to rank Hopkins third among the expensive wide receivers, trailing Hill and Davante Adams.

With Fuller, we're kind of hoping we get confirmation of his status similar to what we got for Ingram on Thursday. If we have advanced notice that he'll be healthy, it'll mean his reaggravation odds are (in theory) lower, and we'll be able to feel better about him at $5,600. You don't have to go there thanks to the other potential value plays at wide receiver, but we can filter him in and hope that we see him at full health. His market shares when healthy do allow us to do at least that.

Unfortunately, it's unlikely we get any other attractive options in this passing offense. Darren Fells was awesome last week with a 95.7% snap rate, but Jordan Akins was inactive due to an injury. Akins has logged limited practices this week and seems on track to return. If we get word that he won't play, then Fells becomes a super cheap tight end option at $5,200. We just shouldn't assume that'll be the case.

As far as the running backs go, the way you view them depends on how you see the game playing out.

If you think the game stays close, then Carlos Hyde becomes viable at $6,400. The Chiefs ranked 28th against the rush in the regular season, and the Texans recognized this in their regular-season meeting, giving Hyde a season-high 26 carries. If the game stays close, Hyde's volume and efficiency should both be solid.

The problem is that he evaporates when they trail, and the Chiefs are heavily favored for a reason. If you use Hyde, you are making the assumption that the Texans keep things close long enough for Hyde to pay off.

If you think things skew the other way, you can consider Duke Johnson. He played 55.3% of their snaps in losses and averaged 8.9 FanDuel points per game in those losses. He's more of an option on the Sunday-only slate when you have fewer alternatives, and it's wise to considering rolling out a wide receiver in your flex over Johnson if he's your third running back, but there are worse options you could consider on such a short offering.

Seahawks at Packers

Part of the reason we would even consider someone like Johnson is that the running-back landscape in this final game is a bit muddied. The receivers are far more intriguing, but let's start with the backfields.

During the regular season, there were two different versions of Aaron Jones: when he was playing alongside Jamaal Williams and when he was the lone ranger in the backfield. And Jones' appeal for DFS was wildly different based on Williams' health.

There were four games during the regular season in which Williams played less than 30% of the snaps. The table below shows the volume Jones got in those games versus the other 12 games this year, and you really can't get much different than this.

If Williams were out, Jones would be the top running back on the slate. But Williams has practiced in full this week, meaning he's going to play. And it makes the evaluation of Jones a whole lot more complicated.

You could play the narrative that the Green Bay Packers were trying to keep Jones fresh throughout the year, a narrative that has some backing based on what head coach Matt LaFleur said in October. However, LaFleur this week sounded like someone who didn't plan on letting Williams rot on the bench.

That effectively rules out the scenario that Jones becomes a full-blown bellcow.

There is still a chance, though, that his workload could go up (similar to that of Ingram) thanks to the importance of the game. LaFleur expressed a desire to get Jones more targets in November and did follow through with that for a few games.

Right now, we don't know what this split is going to look like. It seems as if the most likely scenario is that Jones gets a couple more carries and targets than he did in the regular season but falls short of what he did in the games Williams was out. There's still value in that, even if it's not as valuable as someone like Dalvin Cook.

The Packers are at home as four-point favorites against the league's 25th-ranked rush defense. They've shown all season that Jones can blow up on low volume thanks to his efficiency, and that's within the range of outcomes here again. Especially on a four-game slate, we want players we know can pop off a ceiling game in an instant.

Still, it's hard to rank Jones higher than fifth among running backs for the full weekend. Cook's workload is better at a lower salary, Damien Williams gets similar work and is much cheaper, Derrick Henry is his team's offense, and then we could find something within the Ravens' backfield. If you're multi-entering for tournaments, the fifth-ranked running back on the slate is still someone you could very well wind up using with decent regularity. It's just hard to view Jones as anything close to a must-have back if you're filling out one lineup.

If the outlook for Jones seems murky, it has nothing on the Seattle Seahawks' backs. Travis Homer has been the lead back the past two games with at least 66.7% of the snaps in both, but it sounds like Marshawn Lynch is due to get a spike in his workload.

That's likely not enough to get us to use Lynch due to what we would assume would be limited involvement in the passing game, unless you expect the Seahawks to hang a big number offensively and roll to victory. It also effectively kills the appeal in Homer at $5,500, putting him in the same territory as Duke Johnson where you can use him because of the low salary and limited options, but you're not going to feel good about it.

Part of the reason that Lynch is a tough sell even with elevated volume is that the Seahawks' offensive line is a hot mess right now. Although there is some optimism that left tackle Duane Brown can return from his knee surgery, Brown still has not practiced since the injury, and his backup, George Fant -- along with starting left guard Mike Iupati -- is also yet to practice this week. That's before we even mention center Justin Britt, who has been on injured reserve since late October. Considering that the strength of the Packers' defense is their pass-rushers, this seems sub-optimal.

As the Seahawks showed last week, though, they can still put up some points with Russell Wilson and the passing game even with the offensive line banged up (both Brown and Iupati sat last week, as well). That leads us to the strength of this game, which is the wide receivers.

After he blew up last week, it's pretty obvious that DK Metcalf is someone we can turn to here. We just shouldn't forget about Tyler Lockett, who is actually $300 cheaper at $6,700.

We're up to a four-game sample since offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer deemed Lockett healthy again, and in those four games, Lockett's target load has been superb.

Metcalf's deep volume is just as good as Lockett's, and he has proven time and time again that he can cash that into production. This is not a call for you to avoid Metcalf; rather, it's a plea for you not to overlook Lockett, who seems to be the top mid-tier receiver of the week.

Wilson, himself, is in play, too, despite the concerns around the offensive line. With Chris Carson being out the past two games -- and with everything on the line -- Wilson has gotten back to running, racking up 17 rush attempts the past two games combined. He hasn't scored a rushing touchdown since Week 6, so this has largely gone overlooked, but it makes it much easier to envision Wilson's path to a ceiling game.

Wilson's not on par with Jackson and Mahomes for the full four-game slate. But he is in the same tier as Garoppolo and Watson where they could wind up as the top-scoring quarterbacks of the weekend, meaning it's justifiable to grab tournament exposure.

Aaron Rodgers doesn't bring that rushing juice, and he has very much had an up-and-down season. If you're picking one quarterback from this game, it should be Wilson. But Rodgers does have a bit of Garoppolo in him where he has shown the ability to have spike weeks, and the Seahawks are just 16th against the pass. Rodgers is an option -- albeit a thinner one -- who should come at lower popularity levels.

As with the Seahawks, the real appeal in the Packers' passing game is via the wide receivers, and we've got a good one in both the upper echelon and the value range.

You know Davante Adams is good, and you don't need me to tell you that. But over the past three games, Allen Lazard has separated as the team's clear number two wide receiver with at least a 75% snap rate in each, and he's getting some valuable looks.

Because Rodgers has been slinging it deep regularly, Lazard's 21.6% deep target share is actually 2.7 deep targets per game in this stretch, including eight total over the final two weeks. Lazard is only $5,400, and he's cheap exposure to a good quarterback at home in a plus matchup. That'll play.

As alluded to earlier, the value receivers are just loaded for this slate between Emmanuel Sanders, Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Lazard. You can even toss Will Fuller in there, too, if we get word that he's back to full health. Lazard's target projection should likely be higher than all but Sanders and a healthy Fuller, and he can come through on that volume. This range is a strength of the slate, and even with that, Lazard still grades out as someone we'll want to zero in on.

Both of the tight ends in this game are cheap, but it seems like if you want to ride with one, Jacob Hollister should be your guy. Jimmy Graham's snap rate hasn't been above 60% since Week 10, and Hollister is at least getting looks, even if they're not down the field. He and Rudolph seem to be the go-to options when you're looking to spend down at tight end.