FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 2
Welcome to our weekly FanDuel NFL primer, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research.
As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's daily fantasy tools at your disposal. In particular, our weekly projections can help you nail down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values, while the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals and every team's strengths and weaknesses.
Now, let's run through some of this week's top plays of the slate.
Lamar Jackson ($9,500 on FanDuel): In Week 1, Lamar Jackson did exactly what we've come to expect, waltzing his way to 27.5 FanDuel points against the Browns -- just a smidge below last year's season average (28.1). The rushing and touchdown upside was once again on full display, and his salary has only gone up $100. Like last week, he's numberFire's top projected player across all positions, and there's little reason to doubt him with Baltimore getting a 28.50 implied total against Houston.
Dak Prescott ($8,300): On paper, the week's most likely shootout looks like Atlanta-Dallas, a game carrying not only the highest over/under (54.0) but also a mere 4.5-point spread in favor of the Cowboys. The Falcons' defense let Russell Wilson go bananas in Week 1 (31.78 points), ultimately landing him a spot on the FanDuel perfect lineup. Dak Prescott is coming off a modest first game, but he should have an easier time getting things cooking against a team that was 25th in schedule-adjusted pass defense last season. Matt Ryan ($7,700) threw for 450 yards trying to play catch-up against Seattle, showing how much game-stack potential this contest has.
Kyler Murray ($8,000): I normally try to dip lower in salary at this third spot, but Kyler Murray actually projects as numberFire's top point-per-dollar quarterback. Even in a tough matchup against the 49ers, Murray posted 27.29 FanDuel points due in large part to 13 carries for 91 rushing yards and a score. Murray rushed for the second-most yards among quarterbacks in 2019, and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins ($8,300), who he wasted no time peppering for 16 targets in Week 1, can only help his passing upside this season. While Washington made life difficult for Carson Wentz in Week 1, this was the 28th-ranked adjusted defense last season, and Arizona has a hefty 27.25 implied total.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,600): There's certainly nothing wrong with rostering Christian McCaffrey ($10,500), but a tough matchup against Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point road underdog doesn't make him a must at his exorbitant salary. Ezekiel Elliott is arguably in the best spot of the high-salary backs as a participant in that aforementioned Atlanta-Dallas matchup. Elliott had the second-highest snap rate (87.5%) among running backs in Week 1 and saw a robust workload as usual (22 rushes, 4 targets).
Derrick Henry ($8,300): No one logged more touches (34) or a higher market share of opportunities (45.95%) than Derrick Henry in Week 1. He also saw three targets, tying his highest mark in 2019, and even a small boost in targets would be a huge boon to his DFS value. The Titans are 7.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars -- a team that ranked 29th in adjusted run defense last year -- so another monstrous workload is upcoming.
Kenyan Drake ($6,600): Chase Edmonds may have gotten his share of touches, but Kenyan Drake actually ranked seventh among running backs in snap rate last week (70.73%), which was higher than notable backs like Austin Ekeler, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Alvin Kamara. While he didn't have an amazing performance against San Francisco, we can work with 18 opportunities (16 carries, 2 targets) at this salary point, and game script should favor him against Washington. He's the top projected point-per-dollar running back value this week.
Jonathan Taylor ($5,800): With Marlon Mack now out of the picture, there's a clearer path to touches for Jonathan Taylor, and his nine rushes and six targets were a promising debut for the rookie. Nyheim Hines ($5,500) will prevent him from reaching true workhorse status, but Taylor should still get more than enough opportunities to pay off this salary in a potential back-and-forth game against Minnesota (48.5 game total).
Davante Adams ($8,600): Davante Adams saw a 41.46% target share (17 targets) against the Vikings, helping him to a spot in last week's perfect lineup. Green Bay and Minnesota combined for 77 points, and there could be similar shootout potential versus Detroit this week. The over/under has jumped to 49.5, and the spread remains below a touchdown for the favored Packers. Adams barely edges out DeAndre Hopkins for the top projected wideout this week.
Amari Cooper ($7,000): As mentioned already, we're going to want exposure to the Cowboys, and Amari Cooper is an easy inclusion in any stacks after he saw 14 targets (37.8%) last week. It didn't result in a massive fantasy output (13.1 points), but that volume was an encouraging sign in a tough matchup against Jalen Ramsey. He projects as one of the best wide receiver values at this mid-range salary, and the only minor concern is an ankle injury that's popped up in practice this week. Calvin Ridley ($7,100) is another great mid-range value on the other side.
T.Y. Hilton ($6,300): The Colts are an intriguing stack for tournaments, because the public probably won't be very high on them after watching Philip Rivers ($7,100) and friends get upset by the Jaguars. But Rivers still chucked it 46 times for 363 yards in that game, and he now faces a new-look Minnesota defense that just got annihilated by Aaron Rodgers. This could be an underrated shootout, and all the Indianapolis pieces (including Jonathan Taylor) come in at easy-to-like salaries. T.Y. Hilton saw nine targets in Week 1, and his big-play ability could be on display in a positive game environment.
Corey Davis ($4,900): Corey Davis is coming off a pleasantly surprising Week 1 performance, catching 7-of-8 targets for 101 yards against the Broncos, and it looks like he'll need to be relied upon against Jacksonville with A.J. Brown expected to be out. This game could be dominated by Derrick Henry if things go according to script, potentially limiting Davis' ceiling, but the targets should be there, and he shakes out as the top projected wideout value. Tight end Jonnu Smith ($4,900) will be another beneficiary from Brown's absence.
Travis Kelce ($7,800): We haven't talked about Kansas City yet, and KC could certainly put up plenty of points against the Chargers. Travis Kelce is an appealing way to gain exposure to Patrick Mahomes ($9,000) and a 28.00 implied total, and he's our top projected tight end. Although Kelce had "just" six targets last week, his role is well-established, and he's the only guy at the position projected for more than eight looks this week.
Logan Thomas ($4,700): Projections are still a bit low on Logan Thomas, but he's a hot name entering Week 2 after tallying eight targets in his first game with Washington. Among tight ends, his 26.7% target share was second behind only Hunter Henry's. And wouldn't you know it, he now faces the Cardinals, which had the worst defense against tight ends in 2019. At this punt salary, we're not taking a big leap of faith to see if Thomas is for real, and he's a fantastic addition to any Arizona stacks.
Buffalo D/ST ($4,900): If you've got the extra cash, both Buffalo and the San Francisco D/ST ($5,000) have loads of potential in their respective matchups. The Bills squashed Sam Darnold and the Jets in Week 1 (San Francisco's Week 2 opponent), and they now get to face Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins. Fitzpatrick is coming off an ugly three-pick game against the Patriots, and it can't help that DeVante Parker is dealing with a hamstring issue. Miami has a pitiful 17.50 implied total.
Arizona D/ST ($3,600): Arizona's defense feels like a steal this week, if only because you're getting a 7.0-point home favorite at such a discount. The Cardinals aren't necessarily expected to be a great D this season, but Arizona's offense can get out to an early lead, we could get the pass-heavy game script from Washington that we need to accumulate sacks and turnovers.