NFL Betting Guide: Week 6
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Dolphins Moneyline (-390): 5-Star Rating out of 5
Dolphins -9.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Coming off a 43-17 throttling of the San Francisco 49ers, the Fitzmagic-led Miami Dolphins will look to get back to .500 with a win against the New York Jets in Week 6. numberFire's models say that they're going to do so and do so in style.
Despite having a 2-3 record, the Dolphins' +23 point differential is tops in the AFC East and sixth in the entire conference, and they currently are 14th in numberFire's Power Rankings (the Jets are last by a large margin). Expect them to climb in those rankings after facing a team they've dominated in the recent past.
The Dolphins have gone 6-2 straight up (SU) and 6-1-1- against the spread (ATS) in their past eight games against the Jets, covering by an average of 3.7 points. Of those games, they've gone 4-0 SU and ATS in Miami.
New York has lost by no fewer than nine points this year, losing by an average of 17.2 points and failing to cover by an average of 10.4 points (they are, not surprisingly, 0-5 ATS). They have scored the fewest points in the league and accumulated the second-fewest yards per game. Oh, and they just released Le'Veon Bell only to have him sign with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Teams who are more than nine-point underdogs this season have gone just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 2.4 points. Our models see the Jets making both of those records worse, projecting them for a 14.4-point loss to the Dolphins. We give Miami an 88.1% chance of winning and a 65.2% chance of covering the 9.5-point spread. We mark the bets as five- and three-star plays, respectively.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Titans Moneyline (-200): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Tennessee Titans sent the rest of the NFL a statement on Tuesday night with a commanding 42-16 win over the previously unbeaten Buffalo Bills. Amazingly, the Titans accumulated just 334 yards of offense. The last team to score more than 40 with fewer than 350 yards of offense was --surprise, surprise-- the Titans in Week 1 last season.
Tennessee will look to continue their undefeated season when they host their division rival Houston Texans, who just got their first win of the season in Week 5 with interim head coach Romeo Crennel. The Titans are 3.5-point favorites this week. They've won their past 11 games as home favorites of more than three points, winning by an average of 9.4 points. NFL home favorites of more than three points are 29-8-1 this season.
The Texans have lost five of their last six as away underdogs, getting outscored by an average of 13.2 points in those games. They've lost their past five games as underdogs in any setting. They're 1-4 in their past five games with totals set higher than 50.
We give the Titans, who are seventh in our power rankings, a 72.2% chance of winning and moving to 5-0. With an expected return of $108.31 for every $100 wagered, we mark the Titans' moneyline bet as a two-star play.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Panthers -1.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
Panthers Moneyline (-118): 4-Star Rating out of 5
One of the most intriguing matchups this week will take place in Charlotte, North Carolina, where the 3-2 Carolina Panthers will host the 4-1 Chicago Bears. numberFire projects the Panthers to win comfortably this week.
After going 0-2 to start the season and losing Christian McCaffrey to an ankle injury, few would have predicted the Panthers to go on a winning streak. Mike Davis stepped into CMAC's role seamlessly, however, and Teddy Bridgewater has steadied the offense with a 110.3 rating and 74.3% completion percentage over their past three games.
More importantly, however, has been their defense. Over the past three weeks, the Panthers have given up just 17.7 points per game, the second-fewest in the league. They've turned the ball over just once while forcing six turnovers in that time frame.
The Panthers are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in their past nine home games after a win, winning by an average of 9.4 points in those games. Our models give them a 70.9% chance of pushing that SU record to 10-0 and give the Panthers a 68.2% chance of covering the 1.5-point spread. We mark both bets as four-star plays.
