4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 6
On the Week 6 FanDuel main slate, there are seven games with an over/under of at least 47.5 points, which makes for some nice team and games stacks across the league. There are also 10 teams implied to score at least 27.0 points this week, which should lead to some high-scoring players.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player draft percentage projections.
The first stack that I like this week is a Detroit Lions stack with Matthew Stafford and Kenny Golladay. The Lions are currently implied to score 29.0 points in their game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which ranks as the second most on this week’s main slate.
Stafford has been a model of consistency for fantasy points to start the 2020 season. He’s yet to score fewer than 17 FanDuel points in any of his first four games, and while we haven’t seen him have a blow-up game yet, he has a good chance of having a huge outing this week against a suspect Jaguars defense.
Per Pro-Football Reference, the Jags have allowed an average of 22.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, which is the seventh most across the league. Our algorithm currently has Stafford projected to score the second most points this week among main-slate signal callers, and he offers the best point-per-dollar value at the position.
Stacking up Stafford with Golladay is an easy way to start your lineups this week to get access to some high upside. Per our numbers, Golladay is also expected to have a big week. He’s currently projected to score the fourth most points among wideouts and has the third best odds at the position to score a touchdown.
On top of that, no other wide receiver will have an easier matchup this week, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Golladay is expected to face Jaguars’ cornerback Chris Claybrooks. Of 115 qualified cornerbacks this season, Claybrooks currently ranks 88th overall. PFF is giving Golladay a 52% matchup advantage over the Jags' cornerback, which is the biggest advantage for any receiver playing in Week 6. This is a matchup Golladay should dominate.
Green Bay Packers
In what could be one of the best games to watch in Week 6, the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet up. I like zeroing in on the Packers' passing game in this matchup. This game currently has the highest over/under of the slate (56.0 points), and we could see a shootout between the two teams. The Packers themselves are currently implied to score 28.50 points, the fourth most on the main slate.
Aaron Rodgers has been lights out to start this year, making an early case for the league MVP. He’s averaging 25.88 FanDuel points through his first four games, which is the most for any quarterback on this week’s main slate.
He’s also thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of those games, totaling an average of 3.25 touchdowns passes per game. That’s been done without his number-one receiver, Davante Adams, for 62.5% of the season. Adams was injured halfway through their Week 2 game versus the Lions.
And while you will have to pay up for Rodgers this week since he's the second most expensive quarterback on FanDuel, his upside should improve as he finally gets Adams back. Adams was considered a "full participant" in practice this week and looks to be 100% healthy heading into the matchup.
Adams' current Week 6 projection includes 7 receptions for 88 yards for a total of 16.8 FanDuel points. He leads all wide receivers in projected targets, receptions and touchdown odds.
The last time we saw a healthy Adams was back in Week 1, when he and Rodgers connected 14 times for 156 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He’ll have a slightly tougher matchup this week against a stout Bucs secondary, but Adams can win against just about any cornerback in the league.
We saw the Bucs allow Los Angeles Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert throw for three touchdowns and 290 passing yards on just 25 attempts two weeks ago, so Rodgers and Adams shouldn’t have any concerns heading into this week’s affair.
Coming off a short week after their Tuesday night game, the Tennessee Titans ar at home against the Houston Texans, and I like this spot for the Titans. There’s some shootout potential in this game (53.0 over/under), and the Titans have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three games.
In their two games on the road this season, the Texans have allowed an average of 31.0 points per game, and after coming off their bye in Week 4, the Titans looked really good against the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. Ryan Tannehill was extremely efficient once again, throwing for three touchdown passes on just 28 attempts. He also added a rushing touchdown and 42 rushing yards, ultimately finishing the game with 30.0 FanDuel points.
Tannehill is now averaging 22.34 FanDuel points per game, the third most of all quarterbacks on the main slate. However, eight other passers have a salary higher than Tannehill's, so you get him at a decent discount. Per our model, he’s currently offering the fourth-best point-per-dollar value at his position.
He also didn’t miss a beat with his number-one wide receiver, A.J. Brown, returning last week. Brown was targeted nine times against the Bills after not playing since Week 1, reeling in seven receptions for 82 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.
What’s encouraging is that we’ll likely see more action from Brown in the ensuing weeks, as he played on just 71% of the offensive snaps in Week 5. Going forward, that number should spike closer to the 90% range, which is where we saw him at toward the end of last season.
Like Tannehill, Brown also offers great value this week. In fact, no other wide receiver has a better point-per-dollar value than Brown, per our model, as he sports just the 16th highest salary among receivers.
Per PFF, Brown is expected to receive shadow treatment from Texans cornerback Bradley Roby. That should be a matchup Brown can win. PFF reflects that by giving him a 23% advantage against the Texans’ cornerback.
Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons
Wrapping up this week’s stacks, I like targeting a game stack between the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons. This game currently holds a 54.5-point over/under, which is tied for the second highest on the main slate.
Starting on the Vikings' side, I like pairing Cousins with Adam Thielen. Cousins’ play has been average, at best, to start the season, but he’ll have his easiest matchup to date (and maybe the entire season) against the Falcons this week. No other team has allowed more FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks this year than the Falcons have. They’re surrendering a generous 30.5 FanDuel points per game to the position.
And Cousins is actually projecting quite well via our model. He’s currently expected to have a top-eight performance and offers the third best point-per-dollar value at the quarterback position. We’ve seen Cousins post some big games in his career -- like last season when he threw for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns in back-to-back games against the Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. Passing volume is a concern, but against a porous Falcons defense, Cousins can make the most of whatever volume he gets.
Stacking up Cousins with Thielen is how I’ll be attacking this game. Thielen will likely be popular this week and for all the right reasons. He’s currently projected to be the third highest-scoring wide receiver, per our numbers, and he offers the second best point-per-dollar value at his position.
Thielen has been the main target for Cousins this season, seeing 33% of the team's targets and 48% of the team's air yards. He’s also seen seven red zone targets, which has translated to six touchdown receptions -- tied for the most touchdowns amongst receivers this season.
Thielen is currently expected to face Falcons’ cornerback A.J. Terrell. Per PFF, Thielen has a 49% matchup advantage over Terrell, which is the second best advantage amongst all wide receivers in Week 6.
I like running back this stack with Falcons’ receiver Calvin Ridley, who also has a nice matchup against a poor Vikings’ secondary.
Outside of his Week 4 goose egg against the Packers, Ridley has scored double-digit FanDuel points in every one of his games. He’s also seen double-digit targets in four of five games and has topped 100 receiving yards in each of those outings.
We currently have Ridley projected to score the second most FanDuel points at the receiver position. Per PFF, he’s got a great matchup against Vikings’ cornerback Mike Hughes. PFF is giving Ridley a 33% matchup advantage versus Hughes, which is among the top-10 biggest advantages in Week 6.
This game has shootout written all over it, which should result in some high-scoring fantasy players. Stacking up Cousins, Thielen and Ridley is a nice way to maximize the upside this game offers.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)