Week 7 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Week 7 of the NFL is here! Welcome to the Game Scripts to Target article for the 2020 season. Each week we'll be taking a look at specific games to target for daily fantasy tournaments. Stacking games has always been a popular option in GPPs, as it allows you to reach for upside with the back-and-forth scoring.
Dissecting game scripts should be a huge part of your process when building lineups in NFL daily fantasy.
How will the game play out? Will it be high-paced with lots of potential for fantasy points to be scored? Does it set up well for one team, both teams, or neither? A running back could go from a lock one week as a home favorite to a complete avoid the next week as a double-digit road underdog because the expected game scripts in these contests are completely different.
Projecting these outcomes can be extremely difficult for one person. We can use the lines and totals to see what oddsmakers think and go from there. A great resource is numberFire's Daily Fantasy Matchup Heat Map, which provides betting related numbers -- implied totals, over/unders, and spreads -- as well as custom metrics that show how the teams will match up against each other. This gives us a much better handle on how games are likely to play out, and we can take advantage of that in our lineups.
Let's look at some game scripts to target for this week.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
This is going to be one of the most popular games on the slate to stack, so just know that most of these players won't be sneaky or under-the-radar type plays. The Seahawks come in with the fifth-highest scoring offense in the league, while the Cardinals are right behind them with the sixth-most points scored. We are in for a barn-burner, so buckle up.
The Cardinals are averaging 25.73 seconds per play in all game situations, which is the sixth-fastest rate in the league, according to Football Outsiders. The Seahawks are down at 23rd with an average of 28.09 seconds per play in all game situations. However, when the game is within six points, the Seahawks jump to 26.22 seconds per play, which is the seventh-fastest in the league. This is good to see, as they know when they need to turn up the speed of the offense.
Starting off with the visiting Cardinals, quarterback Kyler Murray ($8,400) has been en fuego to start the season, dropping at least 23 FanDuel points in every single game. He has a total of 16 touchdowns, six of which have come via the ground. This ability to score rushing touchdowns will always give him a high upside.
Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins ($9,000) didn't practice on Wednesday, but he hasn't practiced the previous two Wednesdays and ultimately played in those games. It appears this is more of a maintenance situation, and he should be good to go this week. You should look to stack Hopkins and Murray, as they have immense upside in this -- or really any -- game. Hopkins holds a 31.47% target share on the Cardinals -- the highest on the team -- along with the most red zone targets (7), and he is tied for the most touchdowns (3).
That would be a great spot to start a game stack, but it's very expensive. Murray has the fourth-highest salary among quarterbacks on the entire slate, while Hopkins' salary tops all receivers. If you are unable to get Hopkins into your lineups, look to Christian Kirk ($5,400), who has a friendly salary and will allow you to roster players from the Seahawks to complete this game stack. Kirk is tied for the third-highest (13.20%) target share on the Cardinals, tied for the second-most red zone targets (5), and tied for the most touchdowns (3).
Larry Fitzgerald ($4,900) has the second-most targets (29) on the team, but he hasn't done anything with them. Fitzgerald hasn't posted more than 8.5 FanDuel points in any of his six games this season. He is mostly a dart throw at best in this game.
Backup running back Chase Edmonds ($5,900) is tied for the third-highest (13.20%) target share on the team, which could make him an interesting stacking option in this game. He shouldn't be as popular as the main players and clearly has some upside in the passing game. The Seahawks are allowing the 12th fewest (19.5) FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs, which presents pause when it comes to Kenyan Drake ($6,000) in this matchup.
For the Seahawks, quarterback Russell Wilson ($8,700) clocks in with a little higher salary than Murray's but has cheaper wide receivers to stack. Wilson has also been on fire to start the year with 21-plus FanDuel points in all five of his games. Both quarterbacks have been consistently great fantasy producers. It's a coin-flip situation between the two of them.
If you are going with Wilson, double-stacking him with Tyler Lockett ($7,400) and D.K. Metcalf ($7,300) is very viable. Combined, those two wide receivers account for 48.17% of Seattle's target market share. They have a combined 79 targets, 9 touchdowns, and 10 red zone targets. This double-stack plus Christian Kirk from the Cardinals has tons of upside, is affordable, and grabs plenty of equity on both teams.
Running back Chris Carson ($7,600) is also in play with his 13.41% target share -- the third-highest on the team -- along with controlling 81% of the team's red zone rushing attempts.
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons come in as the third-fastest team in the league, averaging 25.23 seconds per play in all situations. The Lions are the 12th-fastest, averaging 26.94 seconds per play in all situations. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league for total points allowed -- as in their defenses aren't good. This sets up to be an explosive scoring environment, and there should be plenty of fantasy points to capture.
We'll start with the Lions, who are led by quarterback Matthew Stafford ($7,300). He has a favorable salary this week and makes stacking this game a bit easier -- knowing there are expensive receiving options on the Falcons. Speaking of the Falcons, they come into this game allowing 29.9 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is dead last in the league. Stafford's salary combined with this matchup means you will be seeing him in plenty of lineups this weekend.
Wide receivers Marvin Jones ($5,700) and Danny Amendola ($4,800) were both limited in practice on Thursday. This is something worth keeping an eye on, as Jones leads the team with 27 targets, while Amendola has the fourth-most with 22.
Kenny Golladay ($7,600) has looked great after missing the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury. Since his return, Golladay has over 100 receiving yards or a touchdown in all three games. He also has 24 targets, which is the third-most on the team. He is still the number-one receiving option for Stafford and is a strong way to start a game stack.
The Falcons should be attacked via opposing wide receivers, as they are allowing 37.5 FanDuel points per game to them, the fifth-worst in the league. Look to target Golladay as the best option, then Jones -- if he plays. If by chance Jones and Amendola don't play, Marvin Hall ($4,600) or Quintez Cephus ($4,600) could step into a starting role.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson ($5,900) has also proven to be a solid fantasy option on a weekly basis with over 50 yards or a touchdown in all five of his games this season. The Falcons are allowing the second-most (17.6) FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends, so, yeah, another Lions player in a good spot.
The real question for the Lions is what to do with their running backs. Last week, we saw D'Andre Swift ($6,100) emerge with more than 100 yards and 2 touchdowns for a total of 25.8 FanDuel points. That was the best week of his young career. However, he played on only 38% of the snaps, which is a bit concerning. Adrian Peterson ($5,600) played on 35% of the snaps last week, and Kerryon Johnson ($4,800) played on 22% of the snaps.
Their backfield is truly whoever has the hot hand, and it has been that way all season. There has been only one time this season when one of those running backs played more than 50% of the snaps. That was Peterson in Week 3 against the Arizona Cardinals, when he was in on 60% of the snaps. There is no clear answer for this backfield, making it difficult to trust in DFS.
The Falcons were able to pick up their first win of the season last week with a 40-23 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Atlanta has plenty of viable options on offense, and the Lions' defense is not one you need to be afraid of.
Quarterback Matt Ryan ($7,800) was able to bounce back in a big way last week with 31.64 FanDuel points. Prior to that game, he posted fewer than 15 FanDuel points in three straight outings, with only one passing touchdown in that time. The Lions are allowing 20.9 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the 11th-most in the league.
Wide receivers Julio Jones ($8,300) and Calvin Ridley ($8,400) were both limited in practice on Thursday. Ridley has routinely been on the injury report this season and has still played in every game. Julio has been in and out of the lineup, so he is worth keeping an eye on once Sunday morning rolls around.
Detroit allows the ninth-most (32.7) FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers, putting these Atlanta wideouts in a great spot for a ceiling game. A Ryan-Jones-Ridley double-stack has massive upside (as we saw last week) but takes up a lot of salary compared to a three-man stack from the Lions. This three-man stack is $24,500 combined -- nearly 40% of your total salary.
Tight end Hayden Hurst ($5,600) has a touchdown in three of his last five games and has six targets or more in three of those same five games. He has a lower ceiling compared to Jones or Ridley but is far easier to fit into your lineups.
On paper, this is a good matchup for Todd Gurley ($6,600) since the Lions are allowing the sixth-most (27.7) FanDuel points per game to running backs. But the spread is only 2.0 points, and it doesn't seem like a spot where the Falcons will be super far ahead and run the ball a ton.
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
This game isn't going to be a secret for game stacks. Expect the players in this one to be popular, but that shouldn't cause you to turn and run. Plenty of fantasy points are expected in this game, and you should do what you can to get a piece of it.
The Packers are coming off a rough loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they have a much softer matchup versus the Texans this week to get their offense back on track. Speaking of the Packers' offense, we have a few injuries to take note of. Running back Aaron Jones ($8,500) was not at practice on Friday and will be added to the injury report for this game. Jones wasn't on the injury report on Thursday, which causes a lot of concern leading up to the game. Tight end Robert Tonyan ($6,000) returned to practice on Friday and should be good for the game.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) didn't do much of anything last week, but that was his first bad performance of the season. Rodgers posted multiple touchdowns and at least 18 FanDuel points in his four games prior to last week. We should be seeing production more along those lines, as the Texans are allowing 20.3 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Pairing Rodgers with wide receiver Davante Adams ($8,900) is a surefire way to reach for a high ceiling. Adams returned last week after missing a few games, and his role in the offense was instantly noticeable. In the two full games Adams has played this season, he has 27 targets, 20 receptions, 217 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is -- without a doubt -- Rodgers' number-one receiver. The Texans are allowing the 10th-most (32.5) FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers, so, yeah, look to roster Adams this week.
If Aaron Jones is unable to play, we should see an expanded role for Jamaal Williams ($5,000), which would make him one of the best values on the slate. He has a fantastic salary, and the Texans are allowing the third-most (29.6) FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs. This is a juicy matchup, and Williams will likely be one of the most popular players on the entire slate if Jones sits. Keep an eye on this situation.
On the Texans' side of things, Deshaun Watson ($8,000) is putting up points each and every week, totaling 18 FanDuel points or more in five of his six games. Watson and Rodgers are only $100 apart in salary, but the receiving options for Watson are far cheaper. This game stack could go several different ways depending on which quarterback you decide on along with the Aaron Jones injury news.
The Texans have a duo of wide receivers who are clearly a step ahead of anyone else in their passing game. Will Fuller ($6,900) and Brandin Cooks ($5,900) are tied with 40 targets on the season, giving them a combined target share of 42.10% in the Texans' passing game. They have also accounted for 7 of Watson's 13 passing touchdowns, putting a double-stack of them in play.
Tight end Darren Fells ($5,300) has only a 10% target share, but he has turned that into three touchdowns this season. Two of those three touchdowns have come in the red zone, which is interesting, but with his lower target share, he is mainly a dart throw -- though he does get a boost with Jordan Akins ($4,800) expected to be out.
The Packers are allowing 31.4 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs -- the most in the league. This puts David Johnson ($6,300) in a phenomenal spot for a ceiling game at a very modest salary.
Stacking Watson-Cooks-Johnson could -- in theory -- help you account for most of the offensive touchdowns scored by the Texans. It's also not a ton of salary and would allow you to also roster Adams to complete the game stack.