FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 7 Monday Night (Bears at Rams)
On Online Sportsbook, the Rams are 6.0-point favorites, and the total is at 44.5 points -- implying a score of 25.25-19.25 in favor of LA.
According to our oddsFire tool, 87% of the bets on the spread are on the Chicago side, but there is some sharp money going the other way as just 73% of the spread money is backing the Bears. The under is getting hammered with 66% of the bets and 71% of the money on the total coming in on the under.
Our model projects the Rams to win 25.66-21.77.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Jared Goff, Rams ($15,000)
Neither quarterback gets a very good matchup as the Bears have allowed the fewest FanDuel points per game to the position (12.5) and the Rams have given up the 11th fewest (18.3). I prefer Jared Goff over Nick Foles ($13,500) because Goff has the more appealing ceiling -- even in a brutal matchup. Goff has three games with at least 23 FanDuel points this season while Foles' season-high point total is 18.22.
With that said, Goff's ceiling isn't all that fun in this one. The Rams have the fourth lowest pass rate (51.17%) heading into Week 7. This looks like a great slate to go with a non-quarterback at MVP, and you could even fade both Goff and Foles altogether if you wanted to roll the dice.
We project Goff for 17.7 FanDuel points, 2.3 more than anyone else.
David Montgomery, Bears ($11,500)
Volume is king at running back, and David Montgomery is seeing plenty of work. He's been in on 85%, 81% and 85% of the Bears' offensive plays across his past three games. He logged 23 total touches (19 carries and four catches) in Week 6 and saw 17 touches (10 rushes and seven grabs) the week prior.
The pass-game work sans Tarik Cohen has been a big boost to Montgomery's DFS prospects, and he's actually seventh among running backs in targets (28th). That should come in handy against LA as they are permitting the eighth most targets to running backs.
Montgomery has produced at least 9.2 FanDuel points in three straight and should push for 15ish FanDuel points if he finds the end zone. While Montgomery isn't super sexy by any means and the upside isn't all that juicy, the volume matters, and it's not like there are a bunch of other high-upside plays to choose from.
Our model has Montgomery going for 13.2 FanDuel points, slotting him as the top non-quarterback.
Cooper Kupp, Rams ($14,500)
There were valid concerns about Cooper Kupp's role heading into 2020 after he torpedoed in the second half last season. But his usage has been solid as he's played at least 82% of the snaps in every game and is seeing a 24.6% target share, which checks in 13th among wideouts.
Kupp could be more involved if Robert Woods ($14,000) isn't fully healthy, though Woods was removed from the injury report after looking iffy to play earlier in the week.
Chicago is giving up the fourth fewest FanDuel points per game to receivers, so the matchup leaves a lot to be desired. But Kupp is capable of winning his clash with Buster Skrine in the slot. I like Kupp as an MVP option, though we project him for only 11.9 FanDuel points.
Darrell Henderson, Rams ($12,000)
Henderson is pacing the LA backfield in touches of late, getting 14 and 18 touches in the last two games. Malcolm Brown ($10,000) and Cam Akers ($7,000) have combined for only 23 total touches in that span. Akers didn't get a touch in Week 6 while Brown is more of a passing-game piece right now.
On the negative side, the Bears are giving up the 11th fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs, and Henderson has played more than half the snaps just once (53% a week ago) all year.
If you think the Bears win, Brown makes some sense as he'd likely see more run in a negative game script. Henderson will likely be the busier back if the Rams get out to a lead. We have Henderson scoring 12.1 FanDuel points.
Darnell Mooney ($8,000) and Anthony Miller ($7,500), Bears
With Jalen Ramsey likely blanketing Allen Robinson ($13,000), Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller could see more looks than usual. Mooney is the slightly better option as he bests Miller in both targets (30 to 26) and snaps for the season -- though the margins are small on each front.
The Rams are surrendering the second fewest FanDuel points per game to receivers, so it's another bad matchup. But someone has to score some fantasy points. I'll likely grab one of these two and hope for the best.
Our model projects Mooney (6.5) as a better play than Miller (5.8).
Sam Sloman, Rams ($9,000)
If this game is as low scoring as it looks like it could be, either kicker is worth a look. I'll side with Sam Sloman since he's on the favored side.
Sloman has made seven of nine field-goal tries this season, including all six between 30 and 49 yards. He is just 15 of 18 on extra points, though, including a miss in each of the last two games.