DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Primer: Week 9
In this DFS preview, I'll focus on the Sunday main slate and group players into two categories based on their DraftKings salaries: players to build around and value plays.
Players to build around are those with high salaries but even higher production ceilings, making them worth prioritizing in your lineup. Value plays are guys with lower salaries and typically come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the more expensive players on the slate.
All references to betting totals and spreads are from the NCAAF odds. All stats are from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
Players to Build Around
QB Josh Allen, Bills ($7,000) vs. SEA
Josh Allen has been held under 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games, but the Seattle Seahawks' defense should allow him to rebound this week. Opposing quarterbacks are scoring 9.7 points above their season average when facing Seattle. Applying that trend to Allen, he'd be projected for 34.8 points in this matchup.
QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($6,900) vs. IND
Due to inconsistent fantasy production, Lamar Jackson's salary has dropped $1,300 from its peak in Week 2. But we know his ceiling is elite, so he's worth throwing into a few lineups on this reasonable salary. The Indianapolis Colts are giving up the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks but that's heavily influenced by an easy schedule. Based on points allowed relative to the opposing quarterback's average, the Colts defense falls from first to 12th. So while some people may stay away from Jackson under the impression the Colts defense is one to avoid, it's probably still worth rostering him against this middle-of-the-pack defense.
QB Justin Herbert, Chagers ($6,800) vs. LV
Since taking over for Tyrod Taylor in Week 2, Justin Herbert is the fifth-highest scoring quarterback in the league, putting up 27 points per game. Yet, he still only carries the seventh-highest cap hit on this slate. There's always some risk of an unexplained poor performance from a rookie, but so far Herbert appears matchup proof. He's reached at least 19.7 points in every game -- which includes a 24-point performance against a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense. This matchup carries the second-highest total on the slate (53.5 points), which should give Herbert one of the highest ceilings and floors this week.
RB James Conner, Steelers ($6,900) vs. DAL
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 13.5-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys, which should create a significant workload for James Conner. Excluding Week 1, when Conner played just 15 snaps, he leads the team with a 35 percent usage rate when Pittsburgh is leading by a touchdown or more. Dallas has allowed five running backs to score at least 15 fantasy points, including three topping 20 points. Given Conner's usage, that's probably a safe projection range for him this week.
RB Chase Edmonds, Cardinals ($6,800) vs. MIA
The Miami Dolphins' defense is much improved, but it still has issues against the run. According to Sports Info Solutions, Miami is allowing 2.7 yards before contact per attempt, the third-worst rate in the league. Meanwhile, Arizona Cardinals' running backs lead the league with 3.1 yards before contact per attempt. Kenyan Drake ($4,700) is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, so keep an eye on his status, but the expectation is for Chase Edmonds to get the start in this matchup.
WR Stefon Diggs, Bills ($7,400) vs. SEA
If you're rostering Allen to take advantage of the Seahawks' poor pass defense, it makes sense to pair him with Stefon Diggs. According to Sports Info Solutions, 49 percent of Diggs' targets come at least 10 yards downfield. Seattle is allowing a 60 percent completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, the second-worst rate in the league.
Value Plays
QB Drew Lock, Broncos ($5,200) vs. ATL
It's been an inconsistent year for Drew Lock, but he's coming off a season-high 20.8 fantasy points against the Chargers and has another favorable matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta is allowing opposing quarterbacks to score 8.9 fantasy points above their season average, the second-highest rate in the league.
QB Jake Luton, Jaguars ($4,900) vs. HOU
It's rare to find a starting quarterback with a cap hit this low, so Jake Luton is potentially worth a gamble for that reason alone. But, Luton is particularly exciting because his ceiling is much higher than most starting quarterbacks in this salary range. At Oregon State, Luton was a strong downfield passer, which may open up the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense. According to Sports Info Solutions, in 2019, Luton completed 56.9 percent of his passes 15 or more yards downfield, the third-best rate in the nation. Minshew had been throwing downfield on just 17 percent of his attempts, which ranked 22nd in the league. Given Luton's success in college, it's possible the Jaguars' offense becomes more aggressive in this area.
RB David Johnson, Texans ($5,600) vs. JAC
It's been difficult to trust the Houston Texans' backfield this year but this is a favorable matchup for David Johnson. Houston runs the ball in 12 personnel at the second-highest rate in the league (40.4 percent of their attempts), according to Sports Info Solutions. The Jaguars' defense is allowing a league-worst 6.8 yards per attempt when facing 12 personnel. Johnson took advantage of his mismatch in Week 5, with a season-high 96 yards on the ground. He failed to reach the end zone, so his fantasy output landed at just 12.3 points, but we can probably assume that's in the range of his floor, with a ceiling over 20 points.
WR D.J. Chark, Jaguars ($5,200) vs. HOU
As previously mentioned, Jake Luton was an effective downfield passer in college, which could boost D.J. Chark's value now that he's starting in place of Gardner Minshew. 27 percent of Chark's targets have been at least 15 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions. Chark has been held to single-digit fantasy points twice, so he has a low floor, but he looks like an intriguing tournament stack with Luton.
WR Keelan Cole, Jaguars ($4,000) vs. HOU
In addition to Chark, Keelan Cole also sees a high volume of deep targets (28 percent of his total) and could benefit from Luton taking over at quarterback. He also draws a favorable matchup as the slot receiver against the Texans' defense. Houston is allowing a 75.5 percent completion rate to receivers lined up in the slot, the highest rate in the NFL. Cole plays almost exclusively in the slot, with 88 percent of his targets coming in that role, according to Sports Info Solutions.
WR Jalen Guyton, Chargers ($3,100) vs. LV
Jalen Guyton hasn't seen more than four targets in the game, so his floor is extremely low. However, his usage in the Chargers' offense makes him an exciting dart throw on this dirt-cheap salary. Since Herbert took over at quarterback, Guyton has been his favorite target on throws 20 or more yards downfield, and he's already turned those deep targets into two long touchdowns. Further boosting his value in this matchup is the Las Vegas Raiders' defense, which is allowing a 45 percent completion rate on the deep ball, according to Sports Info Solutions.
TE Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,800) vs. ATL
As the number-two tight end in the Denver Broncos' offense, Albert Okwuegbunam should be considered strictly a tournament dart throw, but he's intriguing based on his upside on this extremely cheap cap hit. Two weeks ago, Okwuegbunam saw seven targets in the passing game, despite Noah Fant returning from injury. That number dropped, officially, to just one target last week -- but he also saw two other targets, including one in the end zone, that resulted in pass interference penalties.
Over the last three weeks, Okwuegbunam leads the team with a 40 percent target share in the red zone. Based on his experience with Drew Lock at Missouri, it's probably not a coincidence he's seeing valuable targets from his college quarterback. Additionally, the Falcons are allowing a league-worst 19.1 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
