FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 9 Thursday Night
Admittedly, after a few not-so-great Thursday night games, I was looking forward to this one. The Green Bay Packers traveling to the West Coast to face the San Francisco 49ers, that is, until Sunday's aftermath.
The 49ers lost Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle to injuries sustained during their game with the Seattle Seahawks. Both have been placed on injured reserve, joining Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson as out for this depleted offense. Yesterday, San Fran lost tackle Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kendrick Bourne to the reserve/COVID-19 list after Bourne tested positive. Currently, the Packers are favored by 6.0 points on the road with a game total of 49.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook.
If you are new to the single-game slate, here is a brief rundown. The salary cap remains at $60,000 and scoring is unchanged from the full roster game, but we don't have to worry about individual positions. Instead, single-game slates feature five flex spots. Kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Let's break down this slate!
Davante Adams ($15,500): Adams has simply dominated so far this season, leading the league with a target share of 34 percent. After the Packers were shut down by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Adams has exploded the last two weeks for 38.1 and 26.8 FanDuel points. He's also found the paint five times on an absurd 28 targets in the same stretch. Adams has at least 10 targets in every game since returning from injury, and volume is what we are after in fantasy. The 49ers have limited opposing wide receivers on the season, allowing just 28 FanDuel points per game to the position. They have been susceptible of late, however, especially against number one receivers, which we saw in D.K. Metcalf's 34.0-point explosion last week. Even as the highest-salaried player on the slate, Adams' floor-ceiling combination makes him a worthwhile MVP choice.
Aaron Rodgers ($15,000): Rodgers enters tonight's game with at least 18 FanDuel points in every game this season except for the nightmare game against the Buccaneers. The 49ers' strength on defense is shutting down opposing running backs, and when you combine that with the Packers' backfield situation, this game sets up as another game where Rodgers should carry the offense. On a per-play basis against the pass, the 49ers rank 17th by our schedule-adjusted metrics. They have surrendered multiple passing touchdowns in three consecutive games to Russell Wilson (28.74), Jared Goff (15.92) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (27.6). Rodgers is likely to extend that streak, and he tops our projections on the night at 20.6 FanDuel points.
JaMycal Hasty ($11,000): If you were in Kyle Shanahan's shoes for this game, what would you do? Backup quarterback, backup tight ends, and starting wide receivers who were recently on the practice squad. Yes, you would try to take advantage of a Green Bay defense that just gave up 163 yards and three touchdowns to Dalvin Cook. Hasty led the team in carries against the Seahawks but managed 29 only yards, saving his fantasy day with a short touchdown. The odds are stacked against the 49ers tonight, but Hasty couldn't ask for a much better opponent. The Packers rank 30th against the run, per our numbers, and Hasty should command the early-down work. In the event things go south quickly, Jerick McKinnon ($7,000) would likely be a worthwhile value play for his receiving work against Green Bay's league-worst running back Target Success Rate (66.7%).
Allen Lazard ($9,500): Lazard traveled with the team to San Francisco, meaning there's a good chance he is activated from injured reserve ahead of tonight's game. The Packers need a second receiving option behind Adams, and Lazard appears to have emerged as that guy -- albeit in a small sample. He had nine targets through two games, catching seven for 108 yards and a touchdown. With Adams out in Week 3, Lazard took over as the top option and exploded for 146 yards and a touchdown on his way to 23.4 FanDuel points. (Editor's note: Lazard isn't expected to play tonight, per Adam Schefter.)
Trent Taylor ($5,000): With Deebo Samuel out, Taylor took over as the primary slot receiver for the 49ers last Sunday against the Seahawks. That role didn't produce much fruit -- three receptions for 32 yards -- in a game the 49ers trailed. However, Taylor is worth considering at the minimum price point, especially after Kendrick Bourne tested positive for COVID-19 on. That leaves Taylor as the only fully healthy wide receiver on the active roster. Richie James ($5,000) is listed as questionable, and River Cracraft ($5,000) being called up from the practice squad. Picking on the inside of the Packers' defense through the air has yielded results of late, as evident by Randall Cobb's nine receptions for 90 yards in Week 7, making Taylor the preferred option.
Ross Dwelley ($6,000) or Jordan Reed ($5,000): Reed was limited at Tuesday's practice, which -- due to the positive COVID-19 test -- was the final practice report for the 49ers ahead of this game. Reed filled in as Kittle's replacement earlier this year, catching seven of eight targets for 50 yards and two touchdowns against the New York Jets for 20.5 FanDuel points before suffering a knee sprain. If Reed remains out another week, Dwelley is the pivot for just $1,000 more. As I mentioned above, attacking the interior of the Packers' D via the pass is the play as they allow a 63.3 percent Target Success Rate to tight ends.
Ryan Bobbitt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Bobbitt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Drummerinabox. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.