2020 NFL Power Rankings: Week 9
On a day when razor-thin margins are all the talk, this week’s rankings are no different. The nERD ratings reveal the top three teams within only one point of each other, and the top two within a mere 0.09 points of each other.
Let’s see how this week’s action shook up our rankings.
Risers and Fallers
The Miami Dolphins were the greatest of the risers this week, moving up seven spots to eighth. Tua Tagovailoa made his first career start, but Miami's defense and special teams stole the show, scoring touchdowns on fumble and kickoff returns.
Miami’s special teams generated the third highest Total Special Teams Net Expected Points this season (11.02). Despite getting a win in his first start, Tua had a less-than-stellar debut.
Chase Young: 82.0
Tua Tagovailoa: 49.4
Tristan Wirfs: 72.9
Every grade for all 32 first-round picks after Week 8 https://t.co/EwqwiUHYQO
— PFF (@PFF) November 3, 2020
Thanks to the dominant outing in Week 7, the Miami D now ranks third overall for the season, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. A strong defense has been a big factor in the Dolphins’ ascent in the rankings.
An 11-point loss to the Cincinnati Bengals dropped the Tennessee Titans from 9th to 15th, the biggest plummet of the week. One team in this matchup had a 100-yard rusher and a 100-yard receiver, and that team wasn’t the winner.
Derrick Henry rushed for 112 yards and produced a Rushing Success Rate of 77.2%; the latter statistic led the league in Week 8 (minimum 5 rushing attempts). But the Titans weren’t able to translate that success into a win on the road in Cincinnati.
Here are our Week 8 NFL Power Rankings:
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds |
Rank Change |
Off. NEP Rank |
Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | New York Jets | -14.86 | 0-8 | 0.00% | 0 | 32 | 26 |
| 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -12.66 | 1-6 | 0.00% | 0 | 30 | 31 |
| 30 | Dallas Cowboys | -10.35 | 2-6 | 2.50% | -1 | 25 | 32 |
| 29 | New York Giants | -7.43 | 1-7 | 2.90% | 1 | 29 | 22 |
| 28 | Houston Texans | -6.59 | 1-6 | 2.20% | -1 | 16 | 30 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | -6.13 | 3-4 | 7.20% | -2 | 21 | 24 |
| 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | -4.5 | 2-5-1 | 1.10% | 2 | 15 | 27 |
| 25 | Atlanta Falcons | -4.17 | 2-6 | 0.30% | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | -4 | 5-3 | 36.80% | -2 | 14 | 28 |
| 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | -3.71 | 3-4-1 | 57.60% | 1 | 28 | 15 |
Onto the NFC East group...errr, I mean the bottom-10. While I make fun of that division, the New York Giants did come within a two-point conversion against our top-ranked team (spoiler alert) in Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Ben DiNucci era in Dallas did not start well. The Dallas Cowboys (ranked 30th) lost the matchup to their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles (ranked 23rd). DiNucci posted a -19.9 Total Passing NEP this past week in his debut.
It also appears the Ben DiNucci era in Dallas is over.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds |
Rank Change |
Off. NEP Rank |
Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Denver Broncos | -3.09 | 3-4 | 9.80% | 1 | 31 | 8 |
| 21 | Minnesota Vikings | -1.24 | 2-5 | 9.80% | -1 | 20 | 16 |
| 20 | Buffalo Bills | -0.77 | 6-2 | 67.10% | -3 | 3 | 29 |
| 19 | Washington | -0.42 | 2-5 | 37.80% | 0 | 26 | 10 |
| 18 | New England Patriots | -0.21 | 2-5 | 12.40% | -2 | 23 | 12 |
| 17 | Las Vegas Raiders | -0.19 | 4-3 | 43.60% | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 0.77 | 5-2 | 81.10% | -5 | 6 | 19 |
| 15 | Tennessee Titans | 0.89 | 5-2 | 85.60% | -6 | 5 | 23 |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | 1.03 | 5-3 | 63.40% | 0 | 27 | 5 |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | 1.2 | 3-5 | 8.60% | -1 | 12 | 17 |
Out-dropped only by the Titans (six spots), the New Orleans Saints are down five spots from last week despite beating the Chicago Bears in overtime.
The New England Patriots’ narrow loss to the Buffalo Bills cost them two spots in our rankings as they currently sit at 18th and are 2-5. The Patriots are hoping to rebound against the winless New York Jets next week.
The nERD rating gap in the clash between those two teams represents the largest in the league in Week 9 at 14.7 points. NFL odds has the Patriots as a 7.0-point favorite.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds |
Rank Change |
Off. NEP Rank |
Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts | 1.3 | 5-2 | 62.80% | 6 | 22 | 7 |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | 1.76 | 5-2 | 82.10% | -3 | 8 | 18 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 2.64 | 2-5 | 26.10% | 0 | 19 | 9 |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 3.06 | 6-1 | 92.30% | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Miami Dolphins | 3.49 | 4-3 | 57.10% | 7 | 24 | 3 |
| 7 | Arizona Cardinals | 3.74 | 5-2 | 76.10% | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | 5.2 | 4-4 | 25.90% | -1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 7.69 | 5-3 | 61.90% | -1 | 10 | 4 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.77 | 7-0 | 99.90% | 2 | 11 | 6 |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | 8.25 | 5-2 | 96.50% | 0 | 17 | 1 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 8.89 | 7-1 | 99.20% | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.98 | 6-2 | 90.40% | 0 | 13 | 2 |
Jared Goff put up the league’s lowest Total Passing NEP of Week 8 (-20.2) as the Los Angeles Rams lost to the Dolphins, 28-17. That defeat cost the Rams only one spot, however, putting them at fifth in our rankings.
The Pittsburgh Steelers scored a huge win in the AFC over their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens. While our playoff odds have both teams as near-locks for the postseason, the Steelers win significantly moved the needle in the AFC North race.
| Team | Week 8 Division Odds | Week 9 Division Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PIT | 53.10% | 81.50% |
| BAL | 45.20% | 18.10% |
NFL odds has the Steelers favored by 13.5 points for their upcoming matchup against the Cowboys, whereas the gap between the two teams’ nERD ratings is a whopping 18.1 points.
