FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Thursday Night (Colts at Titans)
Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public is all over Tennessee. The majority of the bets coming in on the spread and moneyline are backing the Titans. That fits with our model as we project a 24.79-20.89 win for Tennessee.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Derrick Henry, Titans ($15,500)
Due to Derrick Henry's minimal pass-game involvement, he isn't a guy we usually jump on when the Titans are underdogs, but tonight is a little different. Not only is it just a 1.0-point spread, our numbers actually have Tennessee winning this game 63.2% of the time. In Tennessee's six wins this year, Henry is averaging 109.3 rushing yards per game and has racked up six rushing touchdowns.
The matchup is a pretty rough one, though, as Indy is giving up the fewest points per game to running backs (16.2). But Henry should see good volume unless the Titans get into a sizable hole, and his big-play ability gives him a chance to break the slate on any touch.
Our model projects Henry for 17.9 FanDuel points -- tied with the next guy for a slate-high mark -- and he's obviously in the MVP conversation. Per our Brandon Gdula's simulations, Henry leads the game in FanDuel points a slate-high 30% of the time.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans ($16,000)
Ryan Tannehill has been pretty darn good this season, continuing what he did at the end of 2019. Tanny has 19 passing scores to just 3 picks while averaging 247.6 passing yards per game. He's added 105 yards and a tud on the ground after scoring 4 rushing touchdowns last season.
The Titans have the fifth-lowest pass rate (52.05%), but Tannehill has thrown for 254.7 yards per game this year in wins, compared to 226.5 yards per game in defeats.
Projected for 17.9 FanDuel points by our model and leading the slate in scoring 25% of the time, per Gdula's sims, Tannehill is a sweet play despite the date with a Colts D that's given up the fewest FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (15.3).
Philip Rivers, Colts ($12,500)
Philip Rivers has scored more than 13 FanDuel points only three times this season. He put up 22.28 points in a delightful matchup with the Detroit Lions, and he took advantage of negative game scripts (and good matchups) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals to score 16.82 and 25.74 points, respectively.
Well, the matchup is there tonight as Tennessee is surrendering the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks as well as the 3rd-most passing tuddies. The negative game script could be there, too, going by our projections. That makes Rivers a fun pick as a likely-contrarian MVP choice.
We have him scoring 16.6 FanDuel points, ranking him as the best point-per-dollar play on the slate. Gdula's sims have Rivers pacing the slate in FanDuel scoring 17.7% of the time, the third-best clip.
Corey Davis, Titans ($11,000)
A.J. Brown ($15,000) is the Titans' wideout you want, but with Brown's salary where it is, it's not easy to use him with two of the aforementioned players. One lineup build I kind of like is fading Henry and loading up on the Titans passing game. Corey Davis is a nice piece if you take that route, but whether or not you fade Henry, Davis is an appealing way to get a piece of the Titans.
Davis -- who we project for 8.2 FanDuel points -- has seen 23 total targets across the past three games, though that includes a 3-look game a week ago in which he failed to catch a ball. Davis is going to be out there plenty as he's played at least 73% of the snaps in each of his active games this campaign.
Nyheim Hines, Colts ($8,500)
Nyheim Hines has been a key cog for the Colts this season, and in a backfield that's been tough to predict, he's the only guy with a pretty set role. Hines is going to be the pass-game weapon out of the backfield, and he's gotten at least three targets in every game but one, with the exception being a lopsided 17-point win over the Minnesota Vikings.
If you're building under the idea of the Colts seeing a negative game script, Hines makes a lot of sense. He's averaging five looks per game across three losses this season, and he's had a nose for the end zone, scoring four total touchdowns. The Titans, meanwhile, have given up four receiving touchdowns to backs.
We peg Hines to score 7.7 FanDuel points, and Gdula's sims have Hines recording a top-five score 19.2% of the time.
Michael Pittman, Colts ($8,000)
Michael Pittman Jr. got nice usage last week, playing 87% of the snaps -- which was narrowly off the team-high mark among Colts receivers -- and tying for the team lead in targets with 7.
The return of T.Y. Hilton ($9,500) will shake up the playing time for Pittman, Zach Pascal ($9,500) and Marcus Johnson ($6,500), but with Pascal's 60% snap rate last week coming in well behind Johnson's and Pittman's, Pittman should still see a lot of run on the outside.
The Titans have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to receivers, and we have Pittman as the best point-per-dollar value among those with a salary under $12,000. He posted a top-five score 28.2% of the time in Gdula's sims.