FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Monday Night (Vikings at Bears)
Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public likes Chicago. Of bets placed on the moneyline, 74% of them are on the Bears, and 71% of the money has followed suit. Our model agrees with that as we project the Bears to win a tight game by a score of 21.17-21.03.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Dalvin Cook, Vikings ($17,500)
Coming off a pair of monster games, Dalvin Cook is going to be in a ton of lineups tonight. Cook has racked up 47.6 and 38.2 FanDuel points the last two games, logging 56 total touches in that span. Cook should see a big workload again tonight for a run-heavy Vikings team that is a 3.5-point road favorite.
The Bears are a difficult matchup, but they're not as stout against the run (13th, per our schedule-adjusted metrics) as they are versus the pass (3rd), and the volume makes Cook worthy of MVP consideration no matter the opposition.
On the flip side, he'll likely be the chalk MVP pick, and he's due for negative regression in the touchdown department after scoring 13 times through seven games. So while I'll have plenty of Cook, I'll likely look elsewhere for my MVP in most lineups.
We project Cook for 20.2 FanDuel points, 5.0 more than any other player on the slate.
Allen Robinson, Bears ($13,000)
Allen Robinson is my favorite MVP pick on the slate.
He's facing a Minnesota defense that has given up the second-most FanDuel points per game to receivers despite seeing just the 15th-most receiver targets against them. They're bad, and A-Rob -- who is expected to play after getting in limited practices this week -- can have a ceiling game in this spot.
Chicago is passing at the highest rate in the league, and Robinson ranks 14th in target share (24.0%) and 18th in air yards share (31.0%) among wideouts. He's got 16 total targets across the past two games, going for 87 and 81 yards in them. Both of those were losses, and the Bears are 'dogs tonight. Robinson also entered this week tied for the most plays of 20-plus receiving yards (13).
Our model projects A-Rob for 13.4 FanDuel points.
Nick Foles, Bears ($13,500)
Well, if I like Robinson, then I have to at least somewhat like Nick Foles. The matchup is great for Foles, too, as the Vikings permit the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers.
Despite Chicago passing so much, Foles hasn't shown appealing upside, with last week's 21.60-point outing his first FanDuel output above 20 points. He does, however, have three other games between 17 and 19 points, and I very much prefer Foles to Kirk Cousins ($14,500) in this game.
I think Foles, A-Rob, and Dalvin are the three best MVP choices, and we project Foles for 15.2 FanDuel points, a touch more than what we have for Cousins (14.5).
Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($12,000)
While Thielen owns fantastic market share numbers this season -- top seven among receivers in target share (28.7%), air yards share (42.6%), and red zone targets (nine) -- it's tough to drop $14,000 on a receiver who hasn't seen more than five targets in any of the last three games. Plus Jefferson has a solid role himself with a 21.8% target share and 29.9% air yards share.
The matchup is brutal as the Bears give up the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to receivers, but Jefferson's big-play ability is extra appealing on a single-game slate. He's got 12 plays of 20-plus yards this season, compared to only 6 for Thielen.
We have Jefferson finishing with 10.3 FanDuel points, just 0.3 fewer than Thielen.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Bears ($8,000)
In a game in which Montgomery left early last week, Patterson played 17 snaps, compared to Nall's 10, and that was with the Bears in a negative game script. Nall didn't get a carry but hauled in 4 of 4 targets for 35 yards and a tud. Patterson gained 13 yards on 3 carries and also caught all 4 of his targets for 27 yards. Miller hasn't yet played for the Bears but is expected to be promoted from the practice squad.
Patterson looks like the best play of this bunch -- though I say that with almost no conviction -- and the salary is easy to like. We project Patterson for 10.9 FanDuel points, ranking him as the best point-per-dollar play of the slate.
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings ($6,000)
With Irv Smith Jr. sitting out, Kyle Rudolph gets a boost and becomes a dart throw I can stomach. Rudolph has played between 62% and 75% of the snaps in every game, so he'll be out there plenty, and the Bears have struggled against tight ends, surrendering the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to the position.
Rudolph has garnered exactly four targets twice in the last three games, though he hasn't topped 47 yards this year, going for more than 28 yards only twice. He'll likely need a touchdown to really hit, but if you're jamming in Cook and A-Rob, you'll need cap relief from somewhere.