FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11 Sunday Night (Chiefs at Raiders)
Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public is hammering KC and the over. Even with the spread moving a point in the Chiefs' favor, 91% of the money and 87% of the bets coming in on the spread are backing Kansas City. On the total, 89% of the money and 91% of the bets are on the over.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($16,500)
Patrick Mahomes is going to be the chalk MVP pick on pretty much any single-game slate he's a part of, and he's hit for ceiling outings in each of his past two games, torching the New York Jets for 36.64 FanDuel points and the Carolina Panthers for 31.48 FanDuel points. Mahomes has gone for at least 27 FanDuel points in five of his nine games, and he's been under 20 FanDuel points just once, which was a blowout win over the Denver Broncos in which KC got a pair of non-offensive touchdowns.
Mahomes lit up Vegas for 30.70 FanDuel points in the first meeting between these two teams. The Raiders have the 10th-worst pass D, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, and they're also allowing the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to signal callers (20.3). Given the matchup and Kansas City being implied for 32.25 points, Mahomes could very well have a huge game. You don't need me to tell you that. It's Patrick Mahomes.
But like I said at the jump, he is going to be the chalk MVP pick, so I'll likely pivot to other guys in the MVP spot in a lot of my lineups. We have Mahomes projected for 23.5 FanDuel points. Not only is he the slate's top-projected player by 7.8 points, he's also the best point-per-dollar play -- by a big margin -- despite his lofty salary.
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($14,500)
Vegas has given up the ninth-fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends (8.2), while they've allowed the 16th-most FanDuel points per game to receivers (30.6). Of course, that doesn't mean a whole lot for Kelce, who torched Vegas for eight catches, 108 yards and a tud back in Week 5. Hill, meanwhile, had three grabs for 78 yards and no scores.
Hill has flamed opponents since then, scoring five times across his last three games, including a pair of two-score games in his last two outings. In addition to the touchdowns, Hill has 113 and 98 yards in those previous two contests.
If you prefer Kelce over Hill, you're not going to get any pushback from me. Our algorithm has Hill going for 15.8 FanDuel points, ranking him as the top non-quarterback. We have Kelce scoring 14.5 FanDuel points.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders ($13,000)
By our metrics, the Chiefs own the second-worst run defense, and that's clearly how opposing squads attack them. Despite Kansas City's opponents usually seeing negative game scripts (and KC already having their bye), the Chiefs have seen the 10th-most rushing attempts against them this year, which has resulted in Kansas City surrendering the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (22.2).
The Raiders will likely feed Josh Jacobs for as long as this game is close. In the first matchup, Jacobs ran is 23 times for 77 and two scores on his way to 21.5 FanDuel points, adding a pair of receptions for eight yards.
That Week 5 game played out perfectly for Jacobs as Vegas hung tight the whole time and ultimately won. The fear with Jacobs is that he could get game-scripted out of the contest if KC pulls away, and that's a very legit worry. In six wins this season, Jacobs has averaged 94.0 rushing yards per game while scoring eight tuddies. In the Raiders' three defeats, he's run for an average of 45.3 rushing yards and hasn't scored a single touchdown. He does have exactly four targets in each of those three losses, but he played only 49% and 59% of the snaps in the two games Vegas lost by more than a touchdown.
There's definitely risk with Jacobs, and said risk is well known. That -- along with all the fun options on the KC side -- will probably keep him out of the MVP spot for the masses. That makes him a fun contrarian MVP pick, and we forecast him to rack up 14.8 FanDuel points.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs ($11,000)
It feels scary to invest in a timeshare backfield coming out of their bye week. Sometimes we see teams deploy usage changes after their bye, and there's a chance this backfield could look different than it did when we last saw it.
In Week 9, it was a true three-headed attack as KC had three backs log a snap share of at least 29%. No one in this backfield has played more than 53% of the snaps in a game since Le'Veon Bell ($9,000) was first active in Week 7. How will the workload be split up in this one? I haven't got a clue, but I'm willing to embrace that volatility and will be plugging in Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the majority of my lineups.
It feels like CEH has been a tad underwhelming this season, but he's the RB14 in FanDuel points per game for the year among backs who have played at least six games. And he's done it despite scoring just three total touchdowns, averaging a robust 90.0 yards per game.
It's not like Bell has been any good, picking up only 54 rushing yards on 16 carries with the Chiefs while turning four total targets into 26 yards. The matchup is there, too, for CEH as the Raiders are allowing 24.7 FanDuel points per game to running backs, the fifth-most.
Maybe this backfield stays a mess, maybe the rookie gets more work or maybe Bell is more heavily involved after the bye. It's all on the table. But I'm willing to roll the dice on CEH, and I'll sprinkle him into the MVP spot in some lineups.
Our model projects Edwards-Helaire for 11.2 FanDuel points on 13.48 total touches.
Devontae Booker, Raiders ($9,500)
If you're afraid of Jacobs getting game-scripted out, Devontae Booker makes a lot of sense. It feels like point chasing after Booker went for 83 total yards and two touchdowns last week, but his role had been growing in recent games.
While his 36% snap share last week was probably inflated by blowout win, he played 31% of the snaps the week before in a five-point game. He's been in on between 22% and 26% of the snaps in all three of the Raiders' losses this season, so he'll benefit if Vegas gets in a hole. He's a perfect run-it-back piece if you're going with three or four Chiefs.
Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs ($7,500)
With Sammy Watkins ruled out, Demarcus Robinson will likely operate as KC's number-two receiver in this game. He played a season-best 81% of the snaps last time out, turning that into three catches (on three targets) for 34 yards and a score. Robinson has scored in each of his last two games, and he's really easy to like at this salary.
Bryan Edwards, Raiders ($6,500)
Admittedly this is a shot in the dark. After playing just one snap in Week 9, Bryan Edwards was in on 28% of plays in Week 10 (20 snaps). In a game in which Vegas will likely have to pass more than they have in recent games, Edwards could see even more run.
It feels like five years ago, but Edwards generated a lot of buzz this past summer. He was a pretty fun prospect, too. We have Edwards pegged for only 2.3 FanDuel points, but he's got a chance to do more if his snaps rise again.