NFL Betting Guide: Week 11
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Browns Moneyline (-158): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Browns -3.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Cleveland Browns showed last week how dominant their rushing game can be when both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are healthy. The former Georgia and Toledo stars each crossed the 100-yard threshold, leading to a Browns win over the Houston Texans.
The Browns are now 8-5 when both Chubb and Hunt take the field, including 4-1 this season (they've won four straight following an opening-week demolishing at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens). They'll look to push that to 5-1 this season when they host the Philadelphia Eagles this week.
Despite coming into Week 11 at 3-5-1, the Eagles stand atop the NFC East, a division whose teams have just 10 collective wins (surprised Pikachu face!). Philly has the fifth-worst offense in the league, according to our metrics. They're averaging just 209.0 yards through the air, down 30.6 from last season.
Injuries to the Eagles' offensive line have played a major role in their decline. Carson Wentz has already been sacked 35 times, a number that leads the league. Coming into 2020, the most times Wentz had been sacked in a season was 37. He's been sacked a league-leading 9.3% of the time he's dropped back to pass.
Wentz should have a little more time to pass this week, however, as it just came out that Myles Garrett has been placed on the COVID-19 list and will miss this week's game. Despite the Browns missing their (and the league's) sack leader, numberFire's model still projects them to take home a win this week. We give Cleveland a 74.4% chance of winning and a 62.0% chance of covering the 3.0-point spread.
Vikings Moneyline (-320): 5-Star Rating out of 5
Vikings -7.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
While they haven't been the most abysmal away team in the NFL this season -- that mighty title is held by the 0-9 New York Jets, who have lost by an average of 22.3 points on the road -- the Dallas Cowboys are doing their best to get there.
The Cowboys are 2-7 heading into this week's away game at the Minnesota Vikings (which, sadly, means they're still playoff contenders in the NFC East...I digress.) and 0-4 on the road. They have mimicked that 0-4 record against the spread, too, failing to cover by an average of 7.5 points. Frankly, it's surprising that number is not higher if you've seen their last two away games, where they've put up a combined 12 points and 407 yards of offense.
As anemic as their offense has been, their defense has arguably been worse, giving up an average of 32.2 points per game. Their 157.0 rushing yards allowed per game is the second-worst mark in the league (though they are only the 10th-worst rushing defense, according to our metrics), which isn't exactly ideal with Dalvin Cook coming up to bat; Cook leads the league in rushing despite having played in just eight games.
The Vikings are an uninspiring 8-7-2 ATS as home favorites since the start of the 2018 season. When Cook plays, however, that record is a much more impressive 8-4-1.
Led by Cook, who numberFire projects as the best fantasy back on the slate this week, we have the Vikings slated to win by 13.2 points. We give them an 86.2% chance of winning and a 64.9% chance of covering the 7.5-point spread. Skol!
Under 49.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
The New England Patriots' fall from grace has come hard and fast. After a 12-4 campaign last year -- their ninth year of 12 or more wins across their last 10 seasons -- they come into this week's game against the Houston Texans at just 4-5. The Pats haven't had a losing season since 2000.
While the chips may seem down, they come into this week's contest just 2.0 games out of the final Wild Card spot and are fresh off a strong win against the Baltimore Ravens, holding Lamar Jackson and company to just 17 points, the Ravens' lowest output of the season.
The Patriots and Texans have put up just the sixth- and eighth-most points per game this season. In spite of the anemic offenses, the 49.0-point total in this game is the fifth-highest on the slate on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The under has hit in four of Houston's past five home games, with the Texans and their opponents scoring an average of 2.8 points fewer than the total in those games. The under has hit both times Houston has been a home underdog this season; they've averaged just 18.0 points in those games.
numberFire's model projects the teams to combine for just 43.6 points on Sunday. We give the under a 64.6% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $123.35 on a $100 bet, we mark the under as a three-star play.