NFL

FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 12 Sunday Night (Bears at Packers)

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Green Bay Packers are 8.0-point favorites over the Chicago Bears, and the total is set at 45.0 points -- implying a 26.50-18.50 win for Green Bay.

Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public is on Green Bay to run away with this one. Of bets being placed on the spread, 67% of the money is backing the Packers.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($16,000)

Aaron Rodgers is having another superb season, and our model ranks him as the slate's top-projected player, forecasting him to score 17.8 FanDuel points. Rodgers is always going to be in the MVP conversation on any single-game slate he's on, and that's especially true when Green Bay is an 8.0-point home favorite.

With that said, the matchup with the Bears is a brutal one. In two games against Chicago a year ago, Rodgers totaled only 406 passing yards and two touchdowns. The Bears are permitting just 15.8 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this season, the fourth-fewest.

I'll have plenty of Rodgers, but I won't use him in the MVP spot too much.

Aaron Jones, Packers ($14,500)

My go-to pick in the MVP slot will be Aaron Jones. We have Jones projected for 17.3 FanDuel points, just a shade under Rodgers' projection. While the matchup is far from easy, the Bears have been a little more giving on the ground, allowing running backs to total 18.5 FanDuel points per game.

Jones did muster only 45 total yards per game in two clashes with Chicago last season, but our algorithm projects him to have 74.1 rushing yards and 26.8 receiving yards tonight.

David Montgomery, Bears ($11,500)

David Montgomery checks a few boxes. Most importantly he's been a workhorse back. Prior to exiting early in his last game, Montgomery had played at least 80% of the snaps in five straight outings. He's also gotten at least 18 total opportunities (carries plus targets) in five consecutive games.

The matchup is there, too, as Green Bay has been getting shredded by running backs, surrendering the second-most FanDuel points per game to the position (28.2).

Considering the modest salary, there's a lot to like with Montgomery, and with him seeing at least three targets in every game in 2020, we don't need to worry about him getting game-scripted out of things. We project him for 12.0 FanDuel points.

Allen Lazard, Packers ($8,500)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,500) looks unlikely to play after sitting out practice on Friday. MVS missing the game would likely thrust Allen Lazard into the number-two wideout role for the Pack.

Lazard made his return off IR last week and was quiet while playing 60% of the snaps. Earlier this season, Lazard logged snap rates of 87%, 84% and 95% from Week 1 through Week 3, and he could see a similar snap share tonight. Lazard produced those first three weeks, too, garnering 17 total targets in that span and scoring twice, including a six-catch, 146-yard game in Week 3.

However, like most players in this game, Lazard has a bad matchup as Chicago has given up the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to receivers (23.4).

If MVS suits up, Lazard isn't as appealing, though you can still make a decent argument for him. Assuming MVS is out, we have Lazard pegged for 8.6 FanDuel points, and he's our best point-per-dollar value among players with a salary under $11,000.

Darnell Mooney, Bears ($8,500)

Going by snaps, Darnell Mooney is pretty clearly in front of Anthony Miller ($7,500) on the depth chart as Mooney has out-snapped Miller every game since Week 1 (with the two playing an equal amount of snaps in Week 6). The target count, though, actually favors Miller by one.

You can make a case for either in this game, but I lean Mooney. In the Bears' last game before their bye, Mooney played nearly twice as many snaps as Miller did (46 to 24). If that usage holds tonight, Mooney could have a productive game with Jaire Alexander's shadow coverage on Allen Robinson ($13,000) possibly pushing a few more looks his way.

Equanimeous St. Brown, Packers ($6,000)

Equanimeous St. Brown should see more run if MVS is out. St. Brown played 25% of the snaps last week and would likely be out there in most three-receiver sets sans MVS. There's barely any 2020 production to speak of for St. Brown (two catches for 35 yards), but he's a low-salary piece of a big favorite.