NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 12
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 12's games (excluding the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers game).
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.10 | 1 | 39.5% | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.07 | 2 | 43.5% | 2 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.10 | 14 | 44.0% | 3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.14 | 17 | 44.7% | 4 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.00 | 4 | 44.8% | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.05 | 7 | 46.0% | 6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.02 | 5 | 46.1% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.08 | 11 | 46.4% | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.08 | 12 | 46.4% | 9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.08 | 10 | 46.6% | 10 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.05 | 8 | 47.3% | 11 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.05 | 3 | 47.3% | 12 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.05 | 6 | 47.6% | 13 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.07 | 9 | 47.7% | 14 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.16 | 20 | 48.4% | 15 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.09 | 13 | 48.5% | 16 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.20 | 23 | 48.8% | 17 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.15 | 18 | 49.2% | 18 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.21 | 25 | 49.4% | 19 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.15 | 19 | 49.9% | 20 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.24 | 28 | 50.0% | 21 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.22 | 27 | 50.2% | 22 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.13 | 16 | 50.5% | 23 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.21 | 26 | 51.1% | 24 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.20 | 22 | 51.7% | 25 |
| New York Giants | 0.11 | 15 | 51.8% | 26 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.28 | 29 | 51.9% | 27 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.30 | 31 | 52.6% | 28 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.21 | 24 | 52.7% | 29 |
| New England Patriots | 0.17 | 21 | 54.1% | 30 |
| Houston Texans | 0.28 | 30 | 54.5% | 31 |
| New York Jets | 0.31 | 32 | 54.6% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.13 | 48.7% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.15 | 2 | 33.2% | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.04 | 9 | 34.3% | 2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.08 | 5 | 34.8% | 3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.09 | 4 | 35.1% | 4 |
| New York Jets | -0.06 | 7 | 35.3% | 5 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.09 | 3 | 35.5% | 6 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.02 | 16 | 36.5% | 7 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.01 | 15 | 38.0% | 8 |
| New York Giants | 0.05 | 22 | 39.0% | 9 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.06 | 6 | 40.0% | 10 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.17 | 1 | 40.3% | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.01 | 14 | 41.2% | 12 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.04 | 19 | 41.5% | 13 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.03 | 18 | 42.0% | 14 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.04 | 20 | 42.6% | 15 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.01 | 13 | 42.8% | 16 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.05 | 8 | 42.9% | 17 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.00 | 12 | 43.0% | 18 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.03 | 10 | 43.4% | 19 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.13 | 30 | 44.0% | 20 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.01 | 11 | 44.2% | 21 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.12 | 28 | 45.0% | 22 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.16 | 32 | 45.6% | 23 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.06 | 25 | 45.7% | 24 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.11 | 27 | 46.2% | 25 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.03 | 17 | 46.4% | 26 |
| Houston Texans | 0.13 | 31 | 46.6% | 27 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.12 | 29 | 47.3% | 28 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.07 | 26 | 47.8% | 29 |
| New England Patriots | 0.06 | 24 | 48.0% | 30 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.06 | 23 | 49.0% | 31 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.05 | 21 | 49.8% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.02 | 42.3% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Football Team | 53.7% | 28 | 48.0% | 1 | 57.9% | 22 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 54.5% | 29 | 49.0% | 2 | 61.5% | 27 |
| Miami Dolphins | 59.4% | 31 | 49.8% | 3 | 51.6% | 8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 33.3% | 1 | 50.5% | 4 | 39.2% | 1 |
| Chicago Bears | 33.3% | 1 | 50.7% | 5 | 53.3% | 12 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 39.0% | 5 | 51.0% | 6 | 53.2% | 11 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 46.8% | 14 | 53.3% | 7 | 62.7% | 28 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 37.5% | 4 | 53.5% | 8 | 49.3% | 7 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 43.5% | 10 | 53.9% | 9 | 49.1% | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 61.7% | 32 | 53.9% | 10 | 53.6% | 14 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 34.2% | 3 | 53.9% | 11 | 63.5% | 32 |
| Denver Broncos | 42.3% | 8 | 54.2% | 12 | 56.5% | 19 |
| Cleveland Browns | 46.9% | 17 | 54.5% | 13 | 58.9% | 23 |
| Buffalo Bills | 50.0% | 21 | 55.1% | 14 | 59.3% | 25 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 52.5% | 25 | 55.4% | 15 | 46.2% | 2 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 44.1% | 12 | 55.8% | 16 | 56.5% | 19 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 48.3% | 18 | 55.9% | 17 | 47.8% | 4 |
| Tennessee Titans | 55.4% | 30 | 55.9% | 18 | 59.2% | 24 |
| Carolina Panthers | 50.0% | 21 | 56.3% | 19 | 57.6% | 21 |
| New Orleans Saints | 43.8% | 11 | 56.3% | 20 | 46.4% | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 41.8% | 7 | 56.5% | 21 | 54.5% | 15 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 45.2% | 13 | 56.9% | 22 | 53.4% | 13 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 46.8% | 14 | 57.3% | 23 | 63.1% | 31 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 42.6% | 9 | 57.5% | 24 | 62.9% | 30 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 39.3% | 6 | 57.7% | 25 | 55.6% | 17 |
| New York Giants | 49.4% | 20 | 57.9% | 26 | 61.4% | 26 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 50.0% | 21 | 58.4% | 27 | 52.2% | 10 |
| Detroit Lions | 46.8% | 16 | 59.3% | 28 | 51.7% | 9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 51.1% | 24 | 59.5% | 29 | 49.3% | 6 |
| New England Patriots | 52.5% | 26 | 60.3% | 30 | 55.2% | 16 |
| New York Jets | 52.7% | 27 | 61.0% | 31 | 56.3% | 18 |
| Houston Texans | 48.7% | 19 | 62.8% | 32 | 62.7% | 28 |
| NFL Average | 46.9% | 55.5% | 55.0% |
