NFL Betting Guide: Week 13
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Packers Moneyline (-400): 5-Star Rating out of 5
Packers -8.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
Sometimes you just gotta bet the hot hand, and few are hotter this year than Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, who come into this week's home game against the Philadelphia Eagles at 8-3, tied for the second-best record in the NFC. The Packers raced to a 41-10 lead last week in their win against the Chicago Bears, holding on for a 16-point win. Our model doesn't project them to put up that many points again this week, but it does project them to win by nearly the same amount.
The Eagles are currently 8.5-point underdogs, which is an unusual position for them in the recent past. In the past 10 seasons, they've been more than 8.0-point underdogs just five times, according to Sports Database. Away underdogs of more than 8.0 points have gone just 1-17 straight up (SU) and 6-12 against the spread (ATS) this season. Those underdogs have lost by an average of 14.6 points in those contests.
Philly is coming off of three consecutive losses, dropping them to 3-7-1. That record -- sadly -- still puts them in the race for the NFC East, which is proving itself to be one of the worst divisions in the history of the league. Teams have won just 31.0% of the time when coming off of three losses this season (33.6% if you include last year). That drops to just 22.2% when those teams are away underdogs.
Teams with at least eight wins facing opponents with fewer than four wins this late in the season have won their past eight games. The Packers, amazingly, have accounted for three of those wins.
numberFire projects the Packers to beat the Eagles by 15.4 points. We give them an 89.4% chance of winning and a 69.0% chance of covering the spread. We mark the bets as five- and four-star plays, respectively.
Vikings Moneyline (-500): 5-Star Rating out of 5
Vikings -10.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Under 51.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
After a disastrous 1-5 start to the season (which included being routed by the then 0-5 Atlanta Falcons), the Minnesota Vikings have won four of their past five and now sit just one game out of the seventh and final playoff spot. They'll look to bolster their postseason chances when they host the 1-10 Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
Judging by their history as more than 10-point favorites (they're currently favored by 10.5 points), a win seems as close to guaranteed as one can get in the NFL. The Vikings have won 15 of their past 16 games when favored by that much, going 8-6-2 against the spread.
Points have come at a premium in those 16 contests, which have seen an average of just 39.7 points scored. The under has gone 12-4 in that span and gone 9-1 in the most recent 10 contests. In their past five such games, the Vikings and their opponents have combined to average a measly 32.4 points, an 8.5 points below the average total in those games.
numberFire's model has three picks in this game rated as a three-plus-star play: the Vikings have a 90.2% chance of winning, they have a 65.9% chance of covering the spread, and the under has a 62.7% chance of hitting. We mark the bets as five-, three-, and three-star plays, respectively.
Over 46.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Neither the Buffalo Bills nor San Francisco 49ers call State Farm Stadium in Phoenix home, but that's where the two teams will meet on Monday night due to COVID-related restrictions in Santa Clara County. After losing three of their past four, the Niners are tied for the eighth-best record in the NFC, just outside of playoff contention. Their postseason hopes just got a boost, however.
Both Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel returned last week in a 23-20 win over the Los Angeles Rams, adding some much-needed pieces to what has been an injury-riddled offense this season. They'll look to build on that win and get back to .500 in a game in which numberFire's model sees the over hitting.
The Bills come into this week's game as the tenth-highest scoring team in the league at 27.2 points per game. The over has gone 8-3 in their contests this season, 4-1 away from the City of Light. Those five away contests have seen an average of 52.0 points scored.
In three of the past four meetings between these two teams (albeit those meetings date back to 2004), one of them has remarkably scored at least 41 points. The Bills put up 45 points the last time these two teams met in 2016, and the Niners put up that exact same total in the previous one.
The Bills are coming off of a home win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The over has hit 54.2% of the time this season when teams are coming off home wins. The over is 4-0 when Buffalo has played in such games -- those four games have seen an average of 63.0 points scored.
Our model projects the teams to combine for 49.8 points this week and gives the over a 59.4% chance of hitting. We mark it as a two-star play.